After last year’s hurricane season peaked with the incredibly powerful, deadly and destructive Hurricane Ian, what do meteorologists expect for this summer and fall?

As the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season kicked off on Thursday and goes until Nov. 30, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasters are predicting “near-normal” hurricane activity this year.

NOAA forecasters with the Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, are projecting a range of 12 to 17 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, five to nine could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including one to four major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher).

The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be less active than recent years, due to competing factors — some that suppress storm development and some that fuel it — driving this year’s overall forecast for a near-normal season.

“As we saw with Hurricane Ian, it only takes one hurricane to cause widespread devastation and upend lives,” FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell said in a statement. “So regardless of the number of storms predicted this season, it is critical that everyone understand their risk and heed the warnings of state and local officials.

“Whether you live on the coast or further inland, hurricanes can cause serious impacts to everybody in their path,” Criswell added. “Visit ready.gov or listo.gov for readiness resources, and get real time emergency alerts by downloading the FEMA App. Actions taken today can save your life when disaster strikes. The time to prepare is now.”

After three hurricane seasons with La Nina present, NOAA scientists predict a high potential for El Nino to develop this summer — which can suppress Atlantic hurricane activity.

El Nino’s potential influence on storm development could be offset by favorable conditions local to the tropical Atlantic Basin.

Those conditions include the potential for an above-normal west African monsoon, which produces African easterly waves and seeds some of the stronger and longer-lived Atlantic storms — and warmer-than-normal sea surface temps in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, which creates more energy to fuel storm development.