A busy and pivotal offseason continues for the Chicago Bears as general manager Ryan Poles tries to make the most of the salary-cap space and draft capital he had for the rebuilding process.
Poles will face his most important test next week, navigating through 47 hours of draft commotion to solidify a roster many around the league still judge as one of the NFL’s least impressive.
That impression could start to change if the Bears can put together a top-notch draft class. They currently own 10 selections, starting with the No. 9 pick and continuing with two in the second round, one in the third, and two each in the fourth, fifth and seventh rounds.
So how much can Poles and the Bears accomplish over draft weekend? And what’s a realistic bar to set for draft success? Tribune writers Dan Wiederer and Brad Biggs studied the last 21 Bears drafts dating to the start of Jerry Angelo’s tenure as GM to calculate batting averages for the franchise — by round, by position, by year and by general manager.
The comprehensive evaluation helps to provide an understanding of how much the Bears can reasonably achieve in this draft.
The Tribune set out first to define what classifies as a “draft hit,” which varies based on where a player was selected. After consulting with multiple league executives, we applied round-specific evaluation criteria to all 159 players the Bears have selected since 2002, determining whether each pick was a success.
Using baseball parallels, some players were deemed worthy of an extra-base hit designation — double, triple or home run.
The grades for 19 players still with the Bears on their rookie contracts are not final and were determined through a combination of production analysis and projection. Nine of those players left us uncertain enough to classify them as a “no at-bat,” unable to be labeled a draft success or an obvious miss yet.
That includes current starting quarterback Justin Fields, the No. 11 pick in 2021, who showed flashes of promise throughout last season. But while Fields has offered Chicago plenty of hope and reasons for justified optimism, the direction of his Bears career will become much more defined based on his play in 2023. Thus for now we’ve kept him in the “no at-bat” category.
Here are the definitions for “hits” at each level of the draft.
In our categorization below, we listed the hits in sequential order and the misses, whiffs and no at-bats alphabetically. “Whiffs,” in our judgment, were players considered bad misses based on how the Bears viewed them on draft weekend and what they produced.
Hits: Tommie Harris (triple), Kyle Fuller (double), Roquan Smith (double), Kyle Long (double), Greg Olsen, Leonard Floyd and Rex Grossman.
Misses: Cedric Benson, Marc Colombo, Mitch Trubisky and Chris Williams.
Whiffs: Gabe Carimi, Michael Haynes, Shea McClellin and Kevin White.
No at-bat: Justin Fields.
Round 1 batting average/slugging: .467/.800.
Hits: Devin Hester (home run), Charles Tillman (home run), Matt Forte (triple), Alshon Jeffery (double), Cody Whitehair (double), Eddie Goldman (double), Cole Kmet, Jaquan Brisker, Tank Johnson, Jaylon Johnson, Danieal Manning and Stephen Paea.
Misses: Jon Bostic, James Daniels and Anthony Miller.
Whiffs: Dan Bazuin, Mark Bradley, Ego Ferguson and Adam Shaheen.
No at-bat: Kyler Gordon and Teven Jenkins.
Round 2 batting average/slugging: .632/1.211.
Hits: Lance Briggs (home run), David Montgomery, Bernard Berrian, Earl Bennett, Dusty Dvoracek, Major Wright, Chris Conte and Terrence Metcalf.
Misses: Jonathan Bullard, Marcus Harrison, Velus Jones, Will Sutton, Roosevelt Williams and Garrett Wolfe.
Whiffs: Jarron Gilbert, Hroniss Grasu, Brandon Hardin, Juaquin Iglesias and Michael Okwo.
Round 3 batting average/slugging: .421/.579.
Hits: Nathan Vasher (triple), Eddie Jackson (triple), Alex Brown (triple), Kyle Orton (double), Tarik Cohen (double), Henry Melton, Ian Scott, D.J. Moore, Nick Kwiatkoski, Corey Wootton, Craig Steltz, Todd Johnson and Deon Bush.
Misses: Ka’Deem Carey, Khaseem Greene, Joel Iyiegbuniwe and Jeremy Langford.
Whiffs: Josh Beekman, Deiondre Hall, Leon Joe, Riley Ridley, Evan Rodriguez, Brock Vereen and Jamar Williams.
Round 4 batting average/slugging: .542/.875.
Hits: Adrian Amos (triple), Mark Anderson (double), Jordan Howard (double), Corey Graham (double), Darnell Mooney (double), Johnny Knox, Braxton Jones, Zack Bowman, Bilal Nichols, Kellen Davis and Bobby Wade.
Misses: Justin Gage, Bobby Gray, Craig Krenzel, Bryan Knight, Tron LaFavor, Jordan Mills, Kevin Payne and Kindle Vildor.
Whiffs: Claude Harriott, Airese Currie, Marcus Freeman, Joshua Moore, Jordan Morgan and Nathan Enderle.
No at-bat: Larry Borom, Trevis Gipson and Dominique Robinson.
Round 5 batting average/slugging: .440/.680.
Hits: DeAndre Houston-Carson (triple), Adrian Peterson (triple), Chris Harris (double), Khalil Herbert and Pat O’Donnell.
Misses: Al Afalava, Jamin Elliott, Trestan Ebner, David Fales, Bryan Fletcher, Brock Forsey, Isaiah Frey, Thomas Graham, Joe Odom, Tyler Reed, J.D. Runnels, Duke Shelley, Zach Thomas and Cornelius Washington.
Whiffs: Tayo Fabuluje, Kylie Fitts, Dan LeFevour, Dazz Newsome and J.T. Thomas.
No at-bat: Doug Kramer.
Round 6 batting average/slugging: .208/.417.
Hits: Charles Leno (home run), J’Marcus Webb (double), Trumaine McBride, Lance Louis, Rod Wilson, Trent Gill, Marquess Wilson and Javon Wims.
Misses: Chester Adams, Bryan Anderson, Ervin Baldwin, Kirk Barton, Aaron Brant, Daniel Braverman, Stephen Denmark, Arlington Hambright, Derek Kinder, Joey LaRocque, Alfonso Marshall, Greg McCoy, Marcus Monk, Lachavious Simmons, Khyiris Tonga and Kerrith Whyte.
No at-bat: Ja’Tyre Carter and Elijah Hicks.
Round 7 batting average/slugging: .333/.500.
** does not include five players deemed too hard to judge after their rookie season
*** does not include four players deemed too hard to judge after their second or third seasons
* Does not include the incomplete classes of 2020 (4 total bases), 2021 (1) and 2022 (3).
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