This year’s men’s NCAA Tournament is as wide open as it’s ever been.
As an Associated Press Top 25 voter, I can attest to that. Filling out a poll this season was a weekly challenge harder than past years. There are certainly a handful of favorites to cut down the nets in Houston in April, but there are no dominant teams. The gap has closed between high-major, blueblood programs and the rest of the pack. The extra year of eligibility due to the pandemic – making for more experienced teams across the landscape – and the introduction of NIL are among the factors.
All of this is to say – this should be another incredibly exciting tournament. Let’s dive into some of the top storylines as the tourney begins Thursday with a 12:15 p.m. tip between Maryland and West Virginia.
The defending champion Jayhawks had a terrific regular season even after losing Ochai Agbaji and Christian Braun, winning the Big 12 regular-season title and winning 17 Quadrant 1 games – an NCAA metric that is used as an evaluation tool – which is the most since the NCAA’s NET rankings went into effect in 2018.
Jalen Wilson, Gradey Dick and Co. earned the No. 1 seed in the West region, but they face a difficult road back to the Final Four. They missed out on going to the Midwest region, where they would have played games in Kansas City. If the Jayhawks advance to the Sweet 16, a potential matchup with UConn – which was a Top 5 team at the start of the season and has surged recently – looms, then possibly either UCLA or Gonzaga in the Elite Eight. They were given no favors.
The Crimson Tide are in the midst of their best basketball season in program history. They earned the No. 1 overall seed after winning the SEC regular season and tournament titles. But nationally, the talk surrounding Alabama isn’t basketball-related.
On the morning of Jan. 15, multiple players were involved in the events that led to the tragic shooting death of Jamea Harris, a 23-year-old mother, in Tuscaloosa. Alabama, player Darius Miles was charged with capital murder and removed from the team. Weeks later, it was learned that Brandon Miller – one of the best players in the country and a projected NBA lottery pick – transported the gun that was used in the shooting after driving it to the scene. Miller’s attorneys said Miller did not touch the gun, was not involved in its exchange and didn’t know illegal activity would occur. Miller has not been charged with a crime.
Still, the school and team has faced significant backlash and criticism for their handling of the situation and because Miller has continued to play since the shooting. The situation hasn’t affected the team’s play – the Tide won the SEC tournament last weekend – but the controversy will loom larger as they begin NCAA Tournament play. The farther they advance, the bigger the story will become.
Houston is a No. 1 seed in the Midwest region and if the Cougars can make a run to the Final Four – which will be played at NRG Stadium in Houston – it could make for a fitting sendoff for longtime CBS broadcaster and Houston grad Jim Nantz, who is calling his final NCAA Tournament this season.
The Cougars – who play in the American Athletic Conference – aren’t often tested like other high-major programs but their 31-3 record features seven wins over Quad 1 teams and have one of the best coaches in the tournament. Kelvin Sampson has guided Houston to a Sweet 16, Final Four and Elite Eight in the last three tournaments. The Cougars’ biggest question mark? The health of All-American guard Marcus Sasser, who went down with a non-contact groin injury in the AAC tournament. His return is uncertain. It would be a hard road without him, though Houston made the Elite Eight while Sasser nursed a foot injury last year.
The Friars – seeded 11th in the East – already have their hands plenty full against John Calipari, Oscar Tshiebwe and Kentucky as they prepare for a primetime tip on Friday, but there’s also some outside noise they’ll need to block out. Their best player, Bryce Hopkins, transferred from Kentucky after his freshman year last season due to a lack of minutes and now faces his old squad on the biggest stage. How he manages his emotions will be key for PC in Greensboro. “I have to stay level-headed,” Hopkins said on Tuesday. “I can’t come out and do too much because that’s when you get in trouble. People are saying it’s the Bryce revenge game, but I have to stay level-headed, stay focused, and do whatever my team needs me to do to win.”
There’s another bigger potential distraction. Ed Cooley, who has coached Providence since 2011 and made the Friars a perennial NCAA Tournament team, is rumored to be a strong candidate for the head coach opening at Georgetown, which fired Patrick Ewing. Cooley has not confirmed or denied interest and declined to end speculation about a potential move, so the whispers will only grow louder. “I don’t think it’s a distraction,” Cooley said Sunday night. “It’s part of the business. It’s part of what we do as coaches. It’s what you guys (the media) do to do your jobs. It’s part of what we do. … We’re sought after every single year. I answer these questions every year. I’m the Providence College coach, and Providence College is playing Kentucky on Friday.”
For the first time since 1980, Duke will play an NCAA Tournament game without Mike Krzyzewski as its head coach when the Blue Devils face Oral Roberts on Thursday night. Krzyzewski, who retired after leading Duke to the Final Four last season, stepped away to make Jon Scheyer the new man in charge this season. Krzyzewski’s former player and assistant led the Blue Devils to a strong campaign in his first season, finishing with a 26-8 record and surging into this NCAA Tournament after winning the ACC tournament.
Duke drew the vaunted No. 5 seed – a popular first-round upset victim – but if it can get by Oral Roberts, which made the Sweet 16 as a 15-seed two years ago, it faces a favorable path forward. Tennessee and Purdue, the Blue Devils’ potential second-round and Sweet 16 opponents, are both vulnerable. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Duke – even without Krzyzewski – back in its familiar territory of the Final Four.
A wide-open NCAA Tournament field means one thing – there’s a strong likelihood of some major upsets that make this tourney so great.
Once a rarity, a No. 15 seed has won at least one game six times since 2012, including the last two tournaments. Last season, St. Peter’s made the Elite Eight as a No. 15 in one of the most exciting runs in tournament history. Which 15-seed has the best chance at pulling off an upset this season? Colgate is an experienced squad and boasts one of the most efficient offenses in the country. If Matt Langel’s Raiders can hit shots, they could give Texas a scare.
Looking for a 13-over-4 upset? Tennessee lost its starting point guard, Zakai Zeigler, to a season-ending torn ACL on Feb. 28. The Volunteers are ripe for a loss to Louisiana. Virginia and Indiana have also looked a bit shaky.
At least one No. 12 seed has won a first-round game in 32 of the last 37 tournaments. The College of Charleston spent time in the Top 25 this season and ranks in the Top 20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. The Cougars are worthy as a popular upset choice against fifth-seeded San Diego State and they’re a Cinderella candidate.
The first round has a handful of tantalizing matchups, including one with some New England interest. Fourth-seeded UConn faces old friend Rick Pitino and Iona in Albany on Friday afternoon, and the Gaels could certainly put a scare into the Huskies. It seems inevitable that Pitino – who has coached the last three seasons at Iona – makes a move for a bigger job at the end of this tournament. He’s been linked to the St. John’s opening.
The committee didn’t do any favors for top-seeded Purdue in the East region after drawing up an insane 8-9 matchup between Memphis and Florida Atlantic, who are ranked 19th and 22nd, respectively, on KenPom. The experienced Tigers have been battle-tested this season and are peaking after winning the AAC tournament over Houston, while the Owls have dominated Conference USA. Whoever wins has a great shot of beating the Boilermakers.
Texas A&M was underseeded as a No. 7 after finishing second in the SEC, which makes for some intriguing matchups in the Midwest. If the Aggies can get by Jalen Pickett and Penn State – no easy task after the Nittany Lions nearly knocked off Purdue in the Big Ten title game – there could be an all-Texas second-round matchup between A&M and Texas. The Longhorns won’t be happy about that draw.
