March Madness is back, and I’m here for my annual shaming.
To anyone who reads this column annually, you know what I’m talking about. If you’re new, here’s a quick recap. The Herald has printed my bracket for every NCAA men’s basketball tournament since 2016. I’m supposed to be the expert, a college hoops snob here to guide you through your picks.
Except my national championship picks have failed – spectacularly.
In my first try, I picked No. 2 seed Michigan State to win it all. The Spartans then lost to 15-seed Middle Tennessee and that set the tone for my misery.
In 2017, second-seeded Duke lost to Frank Martin’s South Carolina squad in the second round. The next year, DeAndre Ayton and No. 4 Arizona were blown out by No. 13 Buffalo. Why did they keep printing my bracket?
It did get better. In 2019, Kentucky advanced to the Elite Eight. And then after COVID-19 canceled the 2020 tournament, I was one win away. But Gonzaga came short of a perfect season by losing to Baylor in the national championship game. It proved to be an anomaly.
In 2022, I offered my faith to Kentucky. The Wildcats rewarded me by losing to 15th-seeded St. Peter’s in the first round. And then, last year, my Mona Lisa: Purdue became the second No. 1 seed to ever lose to a 16-seed, eliminated by Fairleigh Dickinson. I couldn’t possibly top myself.
For those scoring at home: That’s four first-round losses out of seven.
I’m back for an eighth try. Take this bracket with extreme caution, but also, I’m due to hit one of these years, right?
With all that being said – I’m sorry, UConn.
Here are five storylines to watch as the greatest tournament in the world starts again on Thursday:
The last repeat national champion was Al Horford’s Florida Gators in 2006 and 2007, and the biggest threat to end that drought comes this season. UConn, after a surprise championship run last season, enters this tournament as the clear-cut favorite to cut down the nets in Phoenix as the No. 1 overall seed.
Dan Hurley’s Huskies have been utterly dominant all season and a cut above the rest. They won the Big East regular-season title with ease before earning the tournament crown last weekend. Headlined by All-American guard Tristen Newton, they are deep, talented and don’t possess an obvious flaw.
The selection committee, however, didn’t do UConn any favors as the No. 1 overall seed. Their East region is stacked, with Iowa State, Illinois and Auburn – all conference tournament champions who are also ranked inside the Top 10 on KenPom, the popular metrics site – surrounding them. The Huskies could also potentially meet Florida Atlantic or San Diego State, two squads with Final Four experience from last season.
But don’t overthink this one. UConn is the pick to win it all this season.
For the first time since 2018, the East Regional is being played in Boston, with Sweet 16 games next Thursday (March 28) before the regional final on Saturday to decide who advances to the Final Four.
UConn is the biggest potential draw. The Huskies will play de facto home games in Brooklyn for their first and second round games before their fans could potentially make a 90-minute drive from Storrs to Boston. If they advance, TD Garden will feel like Gampel Pavilion or the XL Center – UConn’s home arenas – and will be a serious home-court advantage in their chase for a second straight Final Four berth.
The Huskies could face Auburn in the Sweet 16, which would offer another homecoming. Tigers coach Bruce Pearl went to nearby Sharon High School and graduated from Boston College, where he served as a student manager for the basketball team. Illinois, which boasts the nation’s third-leading scorer in Terrence Shannon Jr., could also be coming. A sleeper? No. 6 seed BYU, one of the country’s best 3-point shooting teams.
The last time the East Regional was set in Boston, Villanova cut down the nets and went on to win the national championship. Perhaps there will be another repeat?
There have been two times in men’s NCAA Tournament history in which a No. 1 seed lost to a No. 16. After Virginia made history with its loss to UMBC in 2018, the Cavaliers returned and won the national championship the next season in one of college basketball’s great redemption stories.
Is there room for another one? Purdue, which lost to Fairleigh Dickinson last season, is following a similar trajectory as Virginia. Like the Cavaliers, the Boilermakers lost in the semifinals of their conference tournament, and are a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tourney.
Purdue will be a trendy pick to be upset early again. The Boilermakers have bowed out to a double-digit seed in each of their last three tournaments. But they have better 3-point shooting surrounding Zach Edey this year, and first and second-round games in nearby Indianapolis should help push them to the second weekend. While their guard play can still be shaky at times, bet on a deeper run than might be expected.
If chalk holds in the West, a meeting between the top two seeds North Carolina and Arizona would be juicy. Caleb Love played three seasons with UNC and helped the school make the national championship game in 2022 before the guard transferred to Arizona for his final season of college basketball.
Love, who was instrumental in UNC’s Final Four run, was blamed by a portion of Tar Heels’ fans for their struggles last season, when they missed the NCAA Tournament. He actually initially transferred to Michigan, but after a credit issue, decommitted and chose Arizona’s instead. He became the Pac-12 Player of the Year as led the Wildcats to a No. 2 seed.
Arizona faces a relatively easy path to the second weekend, where third-seeded Baylor could pose as a good challenge. North Carolina could potentially face Michigan State in the second round. The Spartans were inconsistent this season after being voted No. 4 in the AP preseason poll, but they still have legendary coach Tom Izzo as well as a dangerous duo in the backcourt – AJ Hoggard and former Northeastern star Tyson Walker. The road is not simple for the Tar Heels – who shockingly lost to NC State in the ACC tournament title game – but that matchup with Love for a spot in the Final Four is tantalizing.
Besides UConn, every team in this field is vulnerable. The selection committee, in my opinion, also did a poor job in seeding the bracket. That means there should be plenty of upsets.
A double-digit seed has advanced to the Sweet 16 in 15 consecutive tournaments, and at least one 11 seed has made it that far in seven of the last nine tournaments. Look no further than No. 11 New Mexico in the West. The Lobos – the Mountain West tournament winner – were severely underseeded. They’re actually favored to beat Clemson in the first round, and they’re good enough to beat Baylor.
The Mountain West earned six bids to the Big Dance and they’ll all be playing with some extra motivation after they were all underseeded by the committee. No. 10 seed Colorado State trounced Virginia – which shouldn’t have even been selected – in Tuesday’s play-in game, and the Rams could make some noise.
Other upsets to watch: Kansas lost Kevin McCullar Jr. – arguably its best player – for the entire tournament due to injury, and No. 13 Samford is primed to upset the Jayhawks in the first round. The Bulldogs play with a pace that should bother their depleted opponent. Historically, 12 seeds have been the trendiest upset pick. In that vein, No. 12 McNeese State – with a 30-3 record led by first-year coach Will Wade – should give a vulnerable Gonzaga team problems in the first round.