Mock drafts come down to a ton of guess work. Some of it is educated, while most of it can be chalked up to taking random shots in the dark.
No one really knows how it’s going to turn out. But it’s a fun exercise, taking a crack at it every year.
For this year’s mock, figuring where the top four or five quarterbacks wind up going will dictate how the board falls. Alabama’s Bryce Young appears to be a lock as the first player chosen. After that, you might as well pick them out of a hat.
So here’s how I see the first round shaking out Thursday night, with no trades included.
For quite a while, it appeared there was no clear-cut choice. I was ready to flip a coin, but Young has emerged from the pack. He’ll be Frank Reich’s quarterback when the smoke clears.
Early on, C.J. Stroud seemed like a lock here with Young going first. Still a possibility, but the guess here is Nick Caserio will go with the edge rusher for DeMeco Ryans’ defense.
The Cards have investigated trading this pick, with the Titans the likeliest to move up for one of the quarterbacks. If they don’t unload it, they’ll take the best non-quarterback available.
Stroud, Will Levis, or Florida QB Anthony Richardson could be in this spot. Levis and Richardson have been linked to the Colts, but with Stroud dropping, Indy is more apt to take the Ohio State star.
There are off-field concerns, but he’s perfect for the middle of the Seahawks defense. Tyree Wilson is another possibility here, and so is Richardson.
Cornerback is a need, and Witherspoon fits well with Dan Campbell’s approach. Tough, tenacious, fights for every inch.
Last in turnovers. Next to last in interceptions. Second fewest passes defensed. Fourth most passing yards allowed. Seventh most points allowed. You get the picture. Gonzalez or Witherspoon land here.
Connecting the dots, Smith hails from Georgia, played his college ball for the Bulldogs, and wouldn’t have to move too far to join the Falcons defense.
They desperately need offensive line help and Skoronski spent his college career playing in their backyard. The Bears could start him at tackle or guard on Day 1.
Completely rolling the dice here. The Eagles haven’t drafted a running back in the first round since the 1980s. But put him in Jalen Hurts’ backfield, and the Eagles offense soars.
Move up, or stand pat, it’s going to be a quarterback. Richardson is the most gifted of the lot. He needs work, but having Ryan Tannehill buys time.
Houston fans won’t be happy if Nick Caserio doesn’t come out of the draft with a top quarterback prospect. Levis is the best still available.
Couldn’t decide between Smith-Njigba or Notre Dame tight end Michael Mayer. Jordan Love needs help. Taking the best receiver is a good place to start.
Penn State corner Joey Porter Jr. is still available. Wouldn’t mind that choice. But if they don’t move down, the Pats go with offensive tackle here. Thanks to the tackle-needy Jets moving below them, they get a true stud in Johnson. Not sexy, but still a very good pick.
Even swapping picks with the Packers as part of the package for Aaron Rodgers, the Jets still land one of the top tackles in the class after Pats pounce on Johnson.
Maybe Porter gets by the Commanders, and gets to play for his dad’s former team. But Washington plays the spoiler in this scenario.
There was some temptation to go with Pitt receiver Jordan Addison, who played with Kenny Pickett, but cornerback is a greater need.
They nabbed a corner with their first pick, and beef up the defensive line with their second. Both positions were among their top needs.
The Bucs had a tough time protecting Tom Brady. They try to do a better job with Baker Mayfield or whoever takes over under center.
Pete Carroll is hoping to revamp his defensive front. Landing both Carter and Murphy helps.
Justin Herbert has missed having a security blanket at tight end since Hunter Henry’s departure. Mayer fits the bill. He can block, too.
They signed Odell Beckham Jr., and Nelson Agholor in free agency. Flowers is the cherry on top.
This makes five first-round QBs. Hooker figures to be the heir to Kirk Cousins, who has a year remaining on his current deal.
They could go O-line, or corner here, but the Jags want to improve their front seven, and Van Ness should provide a boost.
They reportedly wined and dined a few wide receiver prospects. Flowers was one that got the royal treatment. Addison was the other.
While they haven’t taken a tight end in the first in forever, they lost starter Dalton Schultz in free agency. This is a must for Dak Prescott.
They probably won’t be able to keep Gabe Davis after this season, so here’s a possible replacement.
They’d love a havoc-wreaking tackle up front, and Kancey fits the bill. He’s an explosive inside defender.
Edge rusher is one of the primary needs for the Saints, and McDonald is the best one left on the board.
They could use a do-it-all defensive back. Branch has experience playing slot corner, nickel safety, strong safety, and single-high safety.
Wouldn’t be surprised if the Super Bowl champs move up the board for Flowers, who worked out with Patrick Mahomes. If not, Hyatt looks the part with his speed and acceleration.
(The Miami Dolphins forfeited its first-round pick.)