Two years ago, I crashed a coaches’ clinic to see Bill Belichick.
Of all the football topics in the world he could have explored that night, Belichick chose to present on a single drill for 45 minutes straight. Late in the presentation, he declared that as long as he was the head coach, the Patriots would run this drill, the Texas drill, whenever they practiced in pads because it emphasized basic offensive and defensive fundamentals. His final words before leaving the stage that night were: “That’s what it’s all about. Good fundamentals.”
The reason I cite that story is not to brag nor long for the days of Belichick. It’s to underscore that for all its Xs and the Os, football is a simple game.
Block, run, pass and catch, if you play offense. Destroy blocks, tackle, rush and cover if you play defense.
That’s it.
Right now, the Patriots are screwing up this simple game. Their fundamentals, particularly on defense, are undercutting any potential for growth. This is the Patriots’ chief problem because it ought to be fixable, especially coming off a bye. Instead, their offensive line set them back with basic mistakes, and the defense broke down again; whiffing on nine tackles, hardly touching Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray and getting steamrolled over back-to-back touchdown drives in the fourth quarter.
Arizona won playing a simple game with a superior roster. But talent alone does not explain the Pats’ 20-point deficit before Drake Maye put lipstick on this pig of a game by rushing for a five-yard touchdown in the final moments. Coaching and culture do. Until the Patriots can fix their fundamentals, and their head coach stops making excuses, they won’t grow, let alone win.
And yes, the offensive play-calling was questionable at best, and those problems were obvious in real time. We’ll get to that.
But Sunday’s issues stemmed more from the Jimmys and Joes than the Xs and Os; both in the locker room and on the coaching staff.
Here’s what else the film revealed about the Patriots’ latest loss:
19-of-23 for 202 yards, TD, INT
Accurate throw percentage: 90.9%
Under pressure: 3-of-6 for 41 yards, INT, 10 rushing yards
Against the blitz: 5-of-8 for 38 yards, INT
Behind the line: 6-of-6 for 51 yards
0-9 yards downfield: 11-of-11 for 88 yards
10-19 yards downfield: 1-of-3 for 26 yards
20+ yards downfield: 1-of-2 for 37 yards
Notes: Rinse, repeat.
Drake Maye played well enough for the Patriots to win, particularly on a rookie curve. He completed every throw within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, and those came in bunches, thanks to a conservative game plan. Maye showed expert-level creation on his first touchdown, an improvised three-yard flip to DeMario Douglas on the run.
Maye also ran into one sack, risked another and triggered too quickly on a couple of third-and-long situations, where the Patriots failed to convert even once. Though his worst statistical sin, the interception, was not on him; but rather Kayshon Boutte’s butterfingers.
Later, Maye dropped one in the bucket on his 37-yard sideline completion to Kendrick Bourne. That marked his second-longest completion through the air this season, behind only the 40-yard touchdown to Boutte he ripped in his starting debut against Houston. More of that, please.
Turnovers: Patriots 1, Cardinals 0
Explosive play rate: Patriots 10.2%, Cardinals 9.4%
Success rate: Patriots 53%, Cardinals 57.8%
Red-zone efficiency: Patriots 2-3, Cardinals 3-4
Defensive pressure rate: Patriots 17.7%, Cardinals 34.5%
Personnel breakdown: 55% of snaps in 11 personnel, 37% snaps in 12 personnel, 6% snaps in 13 personnel, 2% in 23 personnel.***
Personnel production: 63% success rate in 11 personnel, 39% success rate in 12 personnel, 0% success rate in 13 personnel, 0% success rate in 23 personnel.
First-down down play-calls: 62.5% pass (60% success rate), 37.5% run (56% success rate)
Play-action rate: 24.1%
This had me at a loss.
Offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt got second-guessed for handing the ball off on third-and-goal and fourth-and-goal at Arizona’s 1-yard line in the third quarter, when the Pats opted not to use Maye as a rushing threat and got stuffed twice. But Van Pelt’s opening game plan was just as head-scratching.
He called screen passes on most of Maye’s initial dropbacks, and none of his first-half attempts traveled longer than five yards downfield. Why?
The Cardinals blitz at one of the lowest rates in the league. Their pass rush is bad. One of Maye’s best assets is his arm strength, and Arizona struggles to defend the deep pass. Oh, and one of the Patriots’ most glaring weaknesses is they roster one, maybe two, players who can shed tacklers in space.
What was the logic here? Sure, Arizona is a so-so tackling team that struggles to defend screens more than most, ranking bottom 10 in EPA per play allowed on screens per Sports Info. Solutions. But screens are a complementary play, not a core concept.
Meanwhile, the Pats fell behind and desperately needed a wrinkle to climb back from 16-3. Except at the goal line, they stayed vanilla, and the Cardinals crushed them.
Broken tackles: RB Antonio Gibson 11, WR Kayshon Boutte 2, RB Rhamondre Stevenson
Pressure allowed: LT Vederian Lowe 4 (sack, QB hit, 2 hurries), C Ben Brown 2 (2 hurries), QB Drake Maye (sack), Team 3 (3 hurries)
Run stuffs allowed: Team 4, LG Layden Robinson, Lowe
Drops: Boutte
Personnel breakdown: 46% base defense, 28.5% three-corner nickel package, 18% dime, 6% dollar, 1.5% three-safety nickel.****
Coverage breakdown: 66% zone, 34% man
Blitz rate: 17.6%
Blitz efficacy: 66% offensive success rate and 8.2 yards per play allowed
Vanilla with a side of French vanilla.
Defensive coordinator DeMarcus Covington went back to basics after the bye week, and it hardly did his defense any good. The Pats rarely blitzed, played mostly big personnel to slow Arizona’s run game and generated virtually no disruption against the pass.
Covington opened with a man-heavy coverage plan the Cardinals expected and ultimately spooked them out of by repeating a pass play (mesh) built on two, and sometimes three, underneath crossing routes. Arizona also spread the defense out, forcing them to show their hands with linebackers covering James Conner 1-on-1, a matchup Kyler Murray loved. That led to a heavy zone pivot and lots of Cover 2 and 3, which triggered easy throws for Kyler Murray underneath.
Murray also did the Patriots a favor by throwing at Marvin Harrison Jr. in critical situations; all passes Christian Gonzalez either batted away or otherwise kept Harrison Jr. from having any shot at a catch. That matchup, an obvious shadow assignment, was the best decision Covington made all day. He also sprinkled in some simulated pressures on third down (10-of-15), but the results of those plays, like the rest of this game plan, left something to be desired.
Pressure: DL Keion White 2 (2 hurries), OLB Anfernee Jennings 2 (2 hurries), DL Daniel Ekuale (QB hit), Team (hurry)
Run stuffs: Team 2
Pass deflections: Christian Gonzalez 3
Missed tackles: S Kyle Dugger 3, LB Jahlani Tavai 2, LB Sione Takitaki 2, White, Jennings
CB Christian Gonzalez
Gonzalez locked down Cardinals rookie receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. and stopped two touchdowns. In all, he broke up three passes and allowed a single catch on a play where he got picked by another Arizona player.
RB Antonio Gibson
Arguably the best performance by a Patriots running back this season. Gibson forced 11 missed tackles, most by a Patriot all season, and created multiple explosive plays.
LT Vederian Lowe
A sack, three other pressures allowed and a run-stuff. Terrible outing from the Pats’ starting left tackle.
S Kyle Dugger
Three missed tackles, including a costly whiff against receiver Greg Dortch who converted a third-and-11 play before halftime to set up a field goal try.
C Ben Brown
Two bad snaps, multiple pressures allowed. Rough day at the office for another offensive lineman who could be out the door in 2025.
*Explosive plays are defined as runs of 12-plus yards and passes of 20-plus yards.
**Success rate is an efficiency metric measuring how often an offense stays on schedule. A play is successful when it gains at least 40% of yards-to-go on first down, 60% of yards-to-go on second down and 100% of yards-to-go on third or fourth down.
***11 personnel = one running back, one tight end; 12 personnel = one running back, two tight ends; 13 personnel = one running back, three tight ends; 23 = two halfbacks, three tight ends.
****Base defense = four defensive backs; nickel = five; dime = six; dollar defense = seven.