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Boston Herald
Boston Herald
24 Feb 2017
Jim Clark


NextImg:Clark: Forecasting the Super Eight hockey field

We’re down to the final day of the 2016-17 hockey regular season, and most of the teams still in contention for selection to this year’s Super Eight tournament have stated their cases and polished up their resumes.

The MIAA Ice Hockey Committee will sit down tomorrow morning in Franklin to select and seed the 10 teams that will make up this year’s field. With 14 teams on the “Watch List” entering the week, several teams simply will be waiting to find out their seeding, while it will be nail-biting time for the rest of the pack to find out if they make the cut.

Here is how the Herald breaks down the contenders. (Teams listed alphabetically in each category; records are through yesterday’s games, with RPI and SOS numbers through Wednesday).

THE LOCKS

ARLINGTON (18-2-2)

Record vs. Watch List: 4-2-1

RPI: 7 … SOS: 13

The skinny: The only question should be how high the Spy Ponders will be seeded, but regardless they should be the best of the public schools. Arlington split home-and-home with Pope Francis and has wins against Andover, Hingham and Marshfield, with its only other loss to BC High.

BC HIGH (14-2-4)

Record vs. Watch List: 8-2-2

RPI: 1 … SOS: 2

The skinny: The Eagles have more wins against any team on the board, including Monday’s against Hingham in the Buddy Ferreira Classic. They did split with Malden Catholic, including a 5-1 home loss a week ago, and finished third in the Catholic Conference. Still, a second No. 1 seed in as many years isn’t out of the question.

CENTRAL CATHOLIC (14-5-3)

Record vs. Watch List: 3-5-1

RPI: 9 … SOS: 11

The skinny: Even though their computer numbers might not reflect it, the Raiders likely firmed up their spot in the top six with Wednesday’s victory against Malden Catholic.

HINGHAM (16-4-2)

Record vs. Watch List: 7-4-2

RPI: 4 … SOS: 4

The skinny: No question the independent Harbormen play one of the toughest schedules around, which should be enough to get them into the top six. It will be interesting to see the debate between Hingham and Arlington, which won the head-to-head matchup (3-0) just 12 days ago.

MALDEN CATHOLIC (13-4-3)

Record vs. Watch List: 7-3-2

RPI: 2 … SOS: 1

The skinny: The defending champion Lancers might have lost their shot at the No. 1 seed with Wednesday’s loss to Central Catholic, but it’s hard to see them falling much lower than that. They won the always-tough Catholic Conference and split with BC High, winning 5-1 a week ago.

POPE FRANCIS (16-4-1)

Record vs. Watch List: 5-3-0

RPI: 5 … SOS: 6

The skinny: By sweeping to the championship of the Cardinal Classic with wins against St. Mary’s and Central Catholic, the Cardinals likely locked up a top six spot. They also beat Austin Prep just eight days ago, another impressive result.

SAFELY IN

AUSTIN PREP (16-2-3)

Record vs. Watch List: 3-2-2

RPI: 6 … SOS: 10

The skinny: A week ago when we had the Cougars ranked No. 1, they easily would have slid into the top category. But back-to-back losses to Pope Francis and Hingham derailed things, and their best wins are vs. two teams (St. Mary’s, St. John’s Prep) squarely on the bubble.

CATHOLIC MEMORIAL (13-3-2)

Record vs. Watch List: 4-2-2

RPI: 3 … SOS: 3

The skinny: Ditto for the Knights, who looked like the front-runner to win the Catholic Conference. Then came consecutive lopsided losses to Hingham and Xaverian in the last week, and CM still has to play Fairfield Prep today. We feel safe saying the Knights will be back in the field for the first time in three years, but a top-six spot no longer is guaranteed.

ON THE BUBBLE

ANDOVER (13-5-2)

Record vs. Watch List: 1-4-1

RPI: 14 … SOS: 15

The skinny: The Golden Warriors were feeling pretty good after splitting with Central Catholic, even though they were a step behind in the battle for the DCL/MVC title. But Sunday’s tie with St. Mary’s and a tough loss the next night to Weymouth could have ruined their chances.

BRAINTREE (12-6-2)

Record vs. Watch List: 0-4-0

RPI: 17 … SOS: 16

The skinny: The Wamps likely were kept on the board solely based on their matchup Wednesday night against St. John’s Prep, but a 4-1 loss in that one pretty much seals their fate.

MARSHFIELD (18-2-2)

Record vs. Watch List: 0-2-0

RPI: 11 … SOS: 21

The skinny: The Rams were on life support Wednesday afternoon when they trailed Franklin, 3-1, after two periods, only to rally with three in the third for the win. The lack of a marquee victory still could leave them waiting for their first Super Eight nod, although both losses — Hingham and Arlington — were to teams that should be in the top six.

ST. JOHN’S PREP (10-7-2)

Record vs. Watch List: 1-7-2

RPI: 10 … SOS: 5

The skinny: The Eagles’ case is the classic conundrum. No question they have the talent to play in the tournament, but will the committee select a team that finished no better than fourth in the Catholic Conference? The Prep’s best win also came Wednesday against Braintree, and they still have to finish up today at home against Xaverian.

ST. MARY’S (13-7-2)

Record vs. Watch List: 1-6-1

RPI: 12 … SOS: 8

The skinny: The Spartans had a nice comeback tie Sunday night against Andover, and most of their losses were to top contenders, but their best win came against Hingham back a few days before Christmas. Another team that has the talent to compete, but will the resume be enough to earn selection over Marshfield or Walpole?

WALPOLE (21-0-1)

Record vs. Watch List: 1-0-0

RPI: 8 … SOS: 43

The skinny: The Rebels posted 13 shutouts and outscored their opponents by a combined 107-11. But their schedule, with a 1-0 win against Braintree being the only significant one, likely will leave coach Ron Dowd and team sweating out the proceedings tomorrow.