It’s not an exaggeration to call this a career-defining year for Patriots quarterback Mac Jones.
Following one of the most efficient seasons by a rookie quarterback in NFL history, Jones — for a multitude of reasons — did not play up to the standards of a starting quarterback last year. If he can replicate or improve upon his rookie season, then the Patriots should pretend last year never happened. They ought to pick up Jones’ fifth-year option and give him job security as their future starter.
But if he plays as poorly as he did in 2022, then head coach Bill Belichick should be looking for a new franchise quarterback — stat.
There is optimism around the NFL that the rookie quarterback who became a Pro Bowl alternate and led the Patriots to the postseason in 2021 is the real Mac Jones. NFL talent evaluators saw Belichick’s decision to let Matt Patricia and Joe Judge lead the offense torpedo any second-year jump Jones could have made. They also believe bringing aboard Bill O’Brien as the team’s new offensive coordinator should restore balance and get Jones back on his original career trajectory.
Though, there are skeptics among scouts and executives.
“I think he physically has limitations that no coach can hide, and people figured it out,” an NFL assistant general manager told the Herald. “They also don’t have the playmakers around him to help, either.”
There are excuses for Jones’ performance last season. He had one of the NFL’s weaker sets of offensive playmakers. His coaches didn’t know how to properly utilize their QB and the receivers around him in a simplistic form of the Patriots’ offense. The offensive line struggled under a coach who had never led the position group. And Jones suffered a high-ankle sprain early in the season.
Still, Jones should have been at least a little bit better last season. His QBR dropped from 50.9 all the way down to 36.1. A top-11 quarterback in offensive efficiency in 2021, Jones dropped to the bottom 10 in 2022. He was dead last in expected points added (EPA) per play under pressure last season.
O’Brien should help Jones. But it’s no guarantee.
“I have my worries about their O-line, but I do think he can return to form or be better,” an NFC director of pro personnel told the Herald. “The offensive scheme was a disaster last year, and Mac is a little OCD, and a fiery competitor, and used to winning. And (he) came from a high-level program with structure and competence, for a lack of a better word.
“He didn’t have that with (New England)’s offense last year. He definitely has his own limitations and needs an OL and playmakers around him to play at a high level, but I do think the scheme will be much more functional this year which will allow him to play at a higher baseline level.”
Jones had the second-lowest overall Pro Football Focus grade under pressure last season, just ahead of Jets quarterback Zach Wilson, who lost his starting job and will back up Aaron Rodgers this season. He ranked eighth in overall PFF grade under pressure as a rookie in 2021.
The Patriots’ offensive line has been a mess in training camp with every single starter missing some time. Left tackle Trent Brown and center David Andrews are now healthy, but left guard Cole Strange and right guard Mike Onwenu are still working their way back from injury. It is anyone’s guess who will make the most starts at right tackle this season between Riley Reiff, Calvin Anderson, Vererian Lowe, Tyrone Wheatley Jr. and Sidy Sow.
Even Onwenu could see some time there. When healthy and taking upside into account, a combination of Brown, Strange, Andrews and Onwenu can be more than solid. But someone has to round out that group.
“He was horrendous under pressure last year, and those things tend to regress closer to the average,” an AFC analytics analyst told the Herald.
“I definitely think he can return to form with (O’Brien),” he continued, pointing out the Patriots’ lack of play-action usage in 2022.
The Patriots used play action on 26.8% of Jones’ dropbacks in 2021. That figure dropped down to just 16.7% in 2021. O’Brien deployed quarterback Deshaun Watson in play action on roughly 25% of his dropbacks in 2018 and 2019.
Jones completed 73.1% of his passes with three touchdowns and one interception last season using play-action. Without a run fake, his completion percentage dropped by nearly 10 points to 63.5% with 11 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He had a 104.0 passer rating using play-action and an 80.7 passer rating without it. The difference wasn’t nearly as drastic in 2021, when he had a 100.1 passer rating using play action and an 88.2 mark without it as a rookie.
An NFC analytics analyst believes that Jones was helped out by offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels in 2021.
“I’m probably still higher on Josh McDaniels’ play-calling than Mac’s ability,” he said. “In ‘21 Mac had one of the highest (yards per attempt) targeting RBs, but was middling to others.”
Patriots running backs averaged 8.7 yards per reception in 2021 (with Brandon Bolden filling in for James White as the team’s pass-catching back) compared to six yards per catch in 2022. Bolden and Rhamondre Stevenson both averaged over 9.5 yards after catch per reception in 2021 with McDaniels scheming things up.
“Will never bet against the head coach, though,” the NFC analytics analyst added.
Two scouts would only say this is a prove-it year for Jones. An NFC West scout added that the Patriots lack a true No. 1 receiving option. An AFC East scout noted that this year will decisively prove what he is as a quarterback.
Two other scouts were more optimistic about Jones’ upcoming season.
“I definitely think he can get back to form,” an NFC South scout said. “They have a nice mix of skill sets as pass-catchers he can distribute to. And Rhamondre is quietly one of the better backs in the league.”
The Patriots certainly have a deep assemblage of startable skill players in Stevenson, running back Ezekiel Elliott, wide receivers JuJu Smith-Schuster, DeVante Parker and Kendrick Bourne and tight ends Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki, plus rookie wideouts Demario Douglas and Kayshon Boutte.
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An AFC North scout was a bit more tepid about a third-year leap.
“I expect a mild bounce-back for him, which is helped by Bill (O’Brien) coming in certainly,” he said. “I mean, I don’t have the same bar as I’d have for the other QBs in that division, but I do think Year 1 pretty accurately represented his talent and I hope he can return to that level at least.”
Jones shares a division with Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers, a four-time MVP, Bills QB Josh Allen, two-time Pro Bowl selection, and Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa, who, when healthy, was one of the NFL’s most efficient passers last season. It’s not a hot take to say Jones is the fourth-best quarterback in his own division.
Internally, the Patriots have confidence in Jones after a solid training camp.
One source noted that there will always be some growing pains while installing a new offense but that Jones has handled it well. That same source is hopeful that the Patriots will be able to protect Jones better since he did struggle under pressure in 2022.
Another source was confident that Jones’ play this season would more closely resemble how he performed as a rookie because the structure of the offense and the pieces that the Patriots added — “personnel and otherwise” — lends itself to Jones’ strengths better.
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“There isn’t a person in the building that wouldn’t vouch for his work ethic and all he does for our team,” he said. “Just need that to translate over to Sundays.”
If it does, then the Patriots should have no hesitation picking up Jones’ fifth-year option, which would cost them upwards of $23 million in 2025.
If Jones struggles again, the decision will be just as easy: find a replacement.
Jones has been chipper this summer. His teammates exude confidence in their quarterback. The Patriots didn’t give Jones a No. 1 receiver or a high-priced offensive tackle this offseason. But they did give him an experienced, capable coordinator. That could be enough to turn around the QB’s career.