Welcome to the Friday Five!
Each week during the NFL regular season, I will drop five Patriots-related thoughts on Friday to recap the week that was in Foxboro and look ahead to kickoff.
Ready, set, football.
No, I wouldn’t bet it. But, here’s the case …
Week 1 is the wackiest of the entire season. It’s “any given Sunday” on rocket fuel – and especially when the Bengals are involved.
Last year, Cincinnati was favored to beat Alex Van Pelt’s Browns and got smoked 24-3. The year before, they dropped a 27-20 overtime game to the Steelers, who visited as seven-point underdogs. That same day, the Bears, who eventually clinched the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, upset the NFC Championship-bound 49ers.
Back to the Patriots.
The Pats’ path to upending Cincinnati lies at the line of scrimmage; playing a clock-killing, ball-control game Jerod Mayo already outlined Wednesday. Last year, the Bengals’ run defense ranked fifth-worst by DVOA and allowed 4.7 yards per carry, third-worst in the league. Cincinnati has since lost defensive tackle D.J. Reader to free agency, one of the best run-stoppers in football.
Meanwhile, Jacoby Brissett, as the Herald’s Doug Kyed noted Thursday, is tied for the lowest interception rate in NFL history. History. If Brissett can protect the ball, he should manage the game well enough that the Patriots can score enough points to win a dogfight, especially considering Van Pelt’s divisional understanding of the Bengals defense.
Defensively, the Pats might catch a break with limited snaps for star Cincy receiver Ja’Marr Chase. Whether Chase plays at midseason form, they must.
In their last meeting with Cincinnati, Joe Burrow and Co. scored just 22 points, thanks mostly to a pick-six and two other turnovers. Veteran defenders told the Herald this week that the Patriots tried to trick a young Burrow into a couple mistakes. Mission accomplished.
But now that he’s matured, they understand disguising coverage on Sunday will more likely make Burrow work longer in the pocket with his reads, rather than bait him into a turnover. If the Patriots can make Burrow pause long enough, theoretically their pass rush should get home. Should that happen often enough, they will be the talk of the league Week 1.
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If the devil is in the details, then he has some company.
Over the summer, Christian Gonzalez revealed he studies opposing wide receivers' weeks before playing them; not only to grasp their strengths and weaknesses, but to study tells. Occasionally, those tells lead to big plays.
For example, during his last collegiate season at Oregon, Gonzalez jumped a slant pass and broke it up during a win over Stanford. Before the play, Gonzalez said he recognized the receiver opposite him had changed his stance, putting his right leg closer to the line of scrimmage instead of his left; a long-standing tell that receiver was about to run a slant.
This week, Gonzalez's position coach, Patriots cornerbacks coach Mike Pellegrino, confirmed the former first-rounder has built on those habits this year. How finely do the Pats' corners comb through their tape?
"(The tells) can be as tiny as weight distribution," Pellegrino said. "It's how obsessed you want to be about it."
For 24 seasons, Bill Belichick was the most tight-lipped coach in American sports.
It looks like he's making up for lost time.
Belichick added his seventh (!) media gig this week, becoming a senior advisor to The 33rd Team, an NFL-focused media site.
The other six: weekly appearances on ESPN's "The Pat McAfee Show," and "The Manningcast," an alternate Monday Night Football broadcast, plus co-hosting The Breakdown, a new ESPN+ show with Peyton Manning, hosting and co-producing a weekly show on YouTube for Underdog Fantasy and contributing to Let’s Go!, a football podcast for SiriusXM, and Inside the NFL, a longtime program that now airs on the CW.
So why the all-out blitz? To coach again.
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Belichick is telegraphing his game plan like never before: appear younger and more personable, so by the time NFL owners are ready to interview him next, concerns about his energy and ability to connect with young players at age 72 have been assuaged. Owners, after all, are just fans with controlling interest. And because of his omnipresence as a media analyst, no NFL fan will be able to avoid Belichick this season; whether he's breaking down tape or yukking it up with ex-players, young hosts and influencers.
And did I mention he just joined Instagram? But don't take it from me. Take it from a former right-hand man, offensive coordinator and longtime friend: Bill O'Brien.
"I think he’s definitely staying sharp," O'Brien began Thursday on WEEI," in my opinion, to be a coach again.”
(Disclaimer: I do not bet on NFL football, and if you gamble, please do so responsibly.)
DeMario Douglas is the Patriots' best receiver. He separates from man coverage. He wins over the middle of the field. And despite sitting out the first week-plus of competitive drills, Douglas led all Patriots' pass-catchers in receptions by the end of training camp; signs of utmost confidence in him from Brissett and Drake Maye.
So, how is this number impossibly low? It beats me. Douglas should be considered the odds-on favorite to lead the Pats in catches and receiving yards this season until further notice.
Take the over, and thank me later.
... it's time for the Bledsoe Blues to return?
The Patriots announced they will wear their red, Pat Patriot throwback uniforms for two home games this season. We love Pat Patriot. He's great.
But it's now been three years since he returned, and the nostalgic high has worn off. The Pats ought to pick a home game, call it '90s day at Gillette Stadium, make Drew Bledsoe a special guest and dust off those brilliant blue jerseys one more time.