Remember five months ago?
That frigid time in late November and early December, when we kept warm by debating whether the Patriots should start Mac Jones or Bailey Zappe. As if that was anything more than picking between a half-eaten bag of chips or bad fruit for lunch?
As if it mattered?
Now just in case you just emerged from hibernation, Jones was benched three times in 10 games and still managed to hold onto his job. The Patriots finished 4-13, and quarterback was the No. 1 reason why.
For all the days we’ve since spent brainstorming every fake trade and prospect the Patriots might pick at No. 3 overall, the simplest, most obvious answer remains the right one. An answer we all knew back in December, staring at those chips and the pick-happy pear.
Draft Daniels. Or take Drake. One or the other. Just pick.
The Patriots’ calculation here should truly be this simple: you cannot win in today’s league without a quarterback. This is an outstanding quarterback draft. One of the best three quarterback prospects, USC’s Caleb Williams, LSU’s Jayden Daniels or North Carolina’s Drake Maye, will be available when you are on the clock.
The best draft experts, inside and outside the league, largely agree all three have the potential to become the next face of a franchise. Multiple, high-level Patriots evaluators feel the same way. De facto GM Eliot Wolf essentially declared himself a member of that club last week.
So, draft one.
Now, this does not mean Daniels and Maye is a guarantee. There are no guarantees in the draft, which is best understood as a casino. Teams placing bet after bet, pick after pick, round after round on prospects, and failure, AKA the house, always wins.
But when you do hit big, and you hit big at quarterback, it’s life-changing. It’s worth it.
Ask the Chiefs, Bills, Dolphins or Bengals about picking quarterbacks in the top 10. Or the Chargers about Justin Herbert. Or the Jaguars about Trevor Lawrence. Or Houston about C.J. Stroud.
Hitting on these picks pays. Big time. And there is no place on Earth where franchise quarterbacks are more reliably found, year after year, than the top 10 of the draft.
Yes, it’s that simple. Now, one reason life tonight might get complicated? Ownership.
According to The Athletic, team president Jonathan Kraft has been “heavily involved” in the Patriots’ decision-making about what to do with the No. 3 overall pick. That report, for the record, was disputed this week by NBC Sports Boston. But if it’s true — and that’s a Gillette Stadium lighthouse-sized “if” — my sense is Kraft would apply pressure to trade back.
Trading back is the analytically sound move because the aggregate value of whatever draft picks the Patriots would receive in exchange for the No. 3 pick would be far greater than the single selection. That’s how these trades work; draft trades into the top five of the draft, and especially for quarterbacks, demand a ransom.
Again, ask the Texans. Not about Stroud this time, but their trade up to No. 3 overall last year for defensive end Will Anderson. Houston overpaid by modern trade charts. It was a complete heist for the Cardinals, who moved back nine spots to the 12th pick while adding the No. 33 overall pick that year, plus a first-rounder and a third-rounder in 2024.
Meet Eliot Wolf, the man forming the Patriots’ future and his legacy at the NFL Draft
An offer like that, I believe, Kraft would find persuasive enough to pass on Maye or Daniels.
After all, the Krafts own an analytics company. Jonathan is an annual, featured speaker at MIT's Sloan Sports Analytics. His background is in business and numbers. The numbers, in a theoretical offer involving three or four first-round picks from the Vikings or Raiders, would overwhelmingly support accepting that deal.
But this is not a spreadsheet calculation. It's a football decision, where the value of a franchise quarterback can not be properly captured by any combination of numbers. Which isn't to say a football person wouldn't accept that deal. Bill Belichick probably would, and Jerod Mayo might.
"Honestly, the guaranteed way to win is to accumulate more picks," Mayo said at the NFL Annual Meeting last month. "So if we don't feel convicted at No. 3, we are willing to do that, as well."
The other issue: in pushing against a trade back, Wolf's argument would be more qualitative than quantitative. Arguing for what Daniels or Maye looked like on tape, sounded like in pre-draft interviews and felt like in that room. That all matters, but it's harder to capture than the discrepancy in pick value as shown on a trade chart.
To be clear, I am an Eliot Wolf believer. He is suited for the role he's been preparing for since he was a teenager. He's the best talent evaluator the Patriots have.
He deserves ownership's trust. This is why they promoted him, even if on a part-time basis.
And Wolf might have an unlikely ally here.
After explaining why he promoted Wolf last month, Robert Kraft took a question about possibly drafting a quarterback third overall.
"In the end, I’ll let the team make the decision with what they think is best," Kraft said. "One way or another, I’d like to see us get a top-rate young quarterback."
Well then, stay true to your word.
Allow your football experts to make the football decision tonight.
The right answer has been staring them, and us, in the face all along.
Draft a quarterback.