FOXBORO – Déjà vu, anyone?
The Patriots are 1-3 again, handcuffed by a ramshackle offensive line.
Their starting quarterback looks like a lit candle, melting under steady heat until apparently there’s only a stump of him left. Injuries have knocked their best defenders over like dominoes, and a recent road loss to an NFC power has forced many to reconsider what the Patriots’ ceiling is, while a beatable opponent and some home cooking might offer a lift in Week 5.
Last year, that opponent was the Saints, who instead handed the Patriots a 34-0 slice of humble pie, the worst home shutout loss in franchise history. The consequences of that loss rippled through the rest of the season; namely, Mac Jones losing the locker room, and the uncertainty of Bill Belichick’s future hanging over the team through the end of the year.
Even if the Patriots fall to the fellow 1-3 Dolphins on Sunday, there is one major difference between last year’s crash and this one: the head coach knows he’s not going anywhere, and freely admits his team might not, either.
“We knew going into the season we would take our lumps,” Pats coach Jerod Mayo said Wednesday, “and even after the first game when we beat Cincinnati, we understood that this is unsustainable as far as winning that way.”
OK, but let’s hit pause.
Is this the same coach who openly dared opponents to stop the Patriots’ rushing attack and boasted they would always field a strong run defense hours after upsetting the Bengals? Now, lumps and losing were always inevitable? Really?
Not that Mayo is wrong.
It was unreasonable to expect the talent-starved Pats would replicate their Week 1 win knowing it largely hinged on turnover luck; one fumble forced by long snapper Joe Cardona and another recovered at the 1-yard line, which prevented a Bengals touchdown and led to a Patriots field goal. Not to mention, the Pats recovered their lone fumble that day on a separate field goal drive that helped them become the first team this season to score fewer than 17 points and win.
Three weeks later, NFL teams are 4-33 when scoring fewer than 17 this season, and the Patriots’ pathways to points feel narrower than ever.
To recap: David Andrews is gone. The Pats’ starting center, captain and first line of defense against incoming pass-rushers is facing season-ending shoulder surgery. In Alex Van Pelt’s offense, the center controls protections and makes line adjustments. Now, those duties fall to backup Nick Leverett, who took all of 43 snaps at center the previous three seasons in Tampa Bay.
With Andrews, the Patriots allowed a pressure rate of 49% and 10 QB hits per game. Now, he’s being replaced by a player who was on the roster bubble until no other linemen could consistently snap the ball in training camp. Oh, and the Patriots have also run through four different left tackles and their rookie right guard is a five-pressure-per-game turnstile.
Cheers.
Andrews, of course, is far from the Patriots’ only missing piece. On any offseason list of the team’s dozen or so most indispensable players, five are gone: Andrews, Matthew Judon, Christian Barmore, Ja’Whaun Bentley and Kyle Dugger, whose ankle injury is likely to keep him out Sunday against Miami and perhaps longer. Without Dugger and Jabrill Peppers (shoulder injury), the Patriots’ strongest position group will be reduced to veteran Jaylinn Hawkins, undrafted rookie Dell Pettus and special teamer Brenden Schooler.
Even with Dugger and Peppers, the defense ranks 31st on third downs and bottom-5 by DVOA right now. Offensively, problems extend beyond poor pass protection. Twenty-four players have more receiving yards than the Patriots’ entire receiving corps. Rhamondre Stevenson can’t stop fumbling.
All of which is to say, the Pats have walked this path before. It’s a march to misery littered with doubt and paved by dysfunction. Not that Mayo is concerned — yet.
“I’m not worried about the locker room, especially at this current time. I would also say the players understand it’s still early in the season,” he said Wednesday. “So, we’ll see what it looks like going forward.”