


The Patriots are a better football team today because of an aging running back with minimal burst, 1,984 career carries and all the dust one collects after spending five months on the NFL’s clearance rack as an unclaimed and unwanted free agent.
This is the Ezekiel Elliott paradox.
Upon signing his 1-year, $6 million contract Tuesday, Elliott arrived in New England as a fading star and a new, vital piece of the Patriots offense. In Elliott, the Pats have at worst found a proven backup for Rhamondre Stevenson, and at best a running mate for one of their five best players. Without Elliott this summer, they had crossed their fingers that a late-round 2022 draft pick or practice-squad player or USFL alum C.J. Marable could replace Stevenson.
With one stroke of the pen, Elliott ended that pipe dream for good.
Of course, Elliott’s statistical ceiling is likely lower than it’s ever been. Forget any fantasy of seeing another 1,000-yard season or something close to the dozen touchdowns he scored last year. Elliott is an old 28, and the offensive line ahead of him isn’t exactly built to bulldoze.
But Elliott’s talents align precisely with the Patriots’ current needs, meaning his fit should be seamless. Strong fits enable players to impact winning beyond their talents or the traditional box score (including the way every NFL analyst loves to speak of Elliott: did you know he thrives in pass protection?!).
By knocking the snot out of incoming blitzers and pushing the pile on third-and-short. Elliott may not rack up gaudy statistics. But, he should alleviate the pressure on the most important players around him. This is what the greats do, and what good players can provide with great opportunity.
Here’s how could become the latest in a long line of revitalized veterans in New England.
The Patriots ranked dead last in red-zone offense last season by touchdown percentage, scoring 42.44% of the time inside opponents’ 20-yard line. Bill O’Brien and new offensive line coach Adrian Klemm should lift the offense out of the basement all by themselves this year, and Elliott could nudge it even higher.
On goal-to-go carries from the 2-yard line or closer last year, Elliott scored touchdowns on eight of 10 rushes without a blown block, per Sports Info. Solutions. Stevenson, meanwhile, went 1-for-6. On any run with two yards or fewer to go that didn’t suffer from a blown block, Elliott gained a first down on 70% of his carries compared to Stevenson’s 64%.
The difference between gaining a foot versus a few feet in these situations can often mean the difference between three points and seven, a win and a loss. For a fringe Wild Card team like the Patriots, that same foot or feet could determine their postseason fate.
Elliott’s efficiency isn’t too different from Stevenson’s, but the fact the Patriots can now maintain elite short-yardage rushing with either back will help extend Stevenson’s season. Last year, Stevenson played all three downs and wore down under an immense workload. According to Pro Football Focus, over the Pats’ final three games, he averaged 27 rushing yards after contact, down from 51.5 yards until that point in the year.
Handing some of Stevenson’s most physical and punishing snaps to Elliott should stabilize that number late in the year, when the Patriots will need their best players to be at their best for a playoff push.
The Patriots understand Mac Jones must be kept comfortable in order to thrive. He’s a pocket-bound point guard with little ability to extend plays beyond how they’re drawn up on the chalkboard.
Elliott can help there, too.
According to PFF, Elliott didn’t allow a single pressure in pass protection after Week 3 last season. He posted an allowed pressure rate of 4.2%, lower than Stevenson’s 5.8%. Stevenson took more than 70% of the pass-blocking snaps Patriots running backs logged last year, another number that should dip thanks to Elliott.
That year, Jones was under fire 29.2% of the time, and posted the third-worst passer rating among starters when under duress. The only quarterback worse in the face of pressure was Zach Wilson, per PFF grades. Jones’ inability to handle the heat cost the Patriots in certain games as much as poor coaching and lackluster offensive line play.
How he stands up to pressure could determine whether the Pats get off to a fast start. In Weeks 1-4, they’ll face the three defenses that posted the highest pressure rates in the league last season: the Eagles, Jets and Elliott’s former team, the Cowboys.
As the regular season nears, O’Brien will soon face a decision that fundamentally shapes his offense.
How should the Patriots fill their fifth skill-position spot?
Stevenson will play running back whenever he doesn’t require rest or medical attention. The same goes for Hunter Henry at tight end. At receiver, every indication in training camp is JuJu Smith-Schuster and DeVante Parker will start.
Mike Gesicki’s injury at Monday’s practice, which seemed severe at first glance, may have answered this question for O’Brien. The Pats temporarily can hand Gesicki’s reps in team drills to No. 3 receiver Kendrick Bourne, converting those two-tight end snaps into more work for three-receiver groupings.
But hold up. What about Elliott and Stevenson on the field together?
Last season, the Patriots threw out the two-back chapter of their playbook, deploying two running backs on just a dozen of their more than 1,000 offensive snaps. But a year earlier, however, Jones dropped back 75 times in this personnel grouping and posted respectable numbers: an 85.3 passer rating and a 7.4 yards per attempt average, per Sports Info. Solutions.
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Through some combination of Stevenson, Damien Harris and Brandon Bolden in the backfield, the Pats worked to exploit defenses that either fielded a linebacker susceptible in pass coverage or struggled as a whole to defend bigger personnel groupings. Two years before that, in Tom Brady's final season, the Pats ranked among the league leaders in pass attempts from two-back personnel and generated a 97.0 passer rating off those throws.
This grouping, the "Pony" package, has been a safe changeup for the Patriots whenever their backfield talent has outweighed their receiver. Elliott's burst may be gone, but his soft hands remain. He and Stevenson could conceivably throw a lead block for one another, too, and maintain the threat of the run, even if this group leans toward pass.
Because through training camp, one of Jones' favorite and safest targets has been Stevenson versus a linebacker. What better way to generate that matchup than by fielding another running back next to him in the backfield?