Confidence among the Bay State’s employers plummeted again in April amid worries over tariffs and an unpredictable economic future, according to the Associated Industries of Massachusetts.
AIM’s latest Business Confidence Index shows pessimism grew among the state’s hiring businesses from March to April, and the outlook now stands at a negative level not seen since the start of the pandemic.
“Confidence among Massachusetts employers last month hit its lowest level since the Covid-19 pandemic closed down much of the commonwealth’s economy in March 2020. The Associated Industries of Massachusetts Business Confidence Index (BCI) lost 4.5 points during April to end the month at 41.5,” the Index reads, in part.
According to the group, any “reading less than 50 on the 100-point Index indicates a pessimistic outlook” and this April’s BCI was “10.4 points lower than in April 2024.”
Much of the drop can be attributed to trade policies coming out of Washington D.C., where President Donald Trump has spent the first months of his second term waging an on-again-off-again trade war with most of the rest of the world. As a consequence, employers’ views of the U.S. economy as a whole has fallen to “their lowest level since the Great Recession in 2009,” the business group found.
Employers are “grappling with the implications of changes to government policy,” and one surveyed business told AIM that “recent political developments have created significant new threats to our business.”
“Costs for all our raw materials have risen significantly as have costs for tools and supplies. Funding cuts to our customer base … have already eliminated several orders and will reduce future business prospects,” that business warned. Another noted that “we have significant exports to China and tariffs are a major concern.”
April’s BCI wasn’t all bad news. Despite the drop in confidence, the job market remains unchanged, according to the Chair of the AIM Board of Economic Advisors Sara Johnson.
“The April confidence reading was consistent with a drop in national consumer confidence to a five-year low last month amid the back-and-forth on tariffs and uncertainty about federal tax and spending policies. Yet, AIM’s survey also indicated a relatively stable job market, consistent with national employment data,” Johnson said.
March’s BCI saw confidence turn pessimistic for the first time since June of 2024, falling to 46 points from February’s optimistic score of 50.4 points. Since President Donald Trump’s victory in the general election, the BCI has seen 16.2-point drop from its one-year high of 57.7 points.
AIM surveys more than 140 Bay State businesses to produce their BCI, the first of which was published in July of 1991. According to AIM, business confidence hit historic highs in 1997 and 1998, with two months in either year showing 68.5-point confidence, and hit a low in February of 2009, when it was 33.3 points.