It’s still Charlie Baker’s Republican Party in Massachusetts.
More than two years after he departed the Corner Office for the NCAA, Baker continues to dominate the Bay State GOP, with two Baker disciples, Brian Shortsleeve and Mike Kennealy, now the leading candidates to take on Democrat Maura Healey in 2026.
GOP donor and businessman Michael Minogue, who has raised money for the Trump ticket, is also considering a gubernatorial campaign, as the Herald has reported.
But despite the influence of MAGA, the only Republican who can win statewide next November is someone who owns the Baker brand of Republicanism.
A Trump Republican won’t cut it statewide in a general election. About 1.2 million people voted for Trump in Massachusetts last year, but that’s not nearly enough to win.
A MassINC Polling Group survey this year showed Baker with a 40-34% lead over Sen. Ed Markey, while a UMass Amherst poll this year found that Baker was running dead even with Markey, though Baker has said he isn’t running for Senate.
But the polls show just how formidable the Baker name still is in Massachusetts. He could waltz into the Senate race if he wanted and become instantly competitive.
Shortsleeve and Kennealy both have close ties to the former Republican governor; Shortsleeve ran the MBTA under Baker and Kennealy was Baker’s housing secretary.
Kennealy has already hired two former Baker aides, adviser Jim Conroy and former campaign manager Bryan Wynne.
But Shortsleeve has the most potential to emerge as Baker’s successor in leading the party. He’s a Marine veteran who led the MBTA under Baker and is vowing to repeal the MBTA Communities Act, which is unpopular in many communities..
Shortsleeve has also charged that Healey is prioritizing migrants over veterans and ordinary voters.
Healey has largely been a disappointment in her handling of the migrant crisis and the budget. She could be vulnerable to a tough challenge from a Baker type moderate. She is now blaming Trump for everything, which is a cop-out.
The problem for both Shortsleeve and Kennealy, and potentially Minogue, is that they have to appeal to GOP conservatives in the primary, then quickly pivot to appeal to moderates in the general.
Baker left deeply unpopular with Trump voters, and may not have been able to win a primary when he made his exit, despite his popularity.
But when he was governor, Baker was a rare unifying leader in Massachusetts, with Democrats and all but the most conservative of Republicans embracing him throughout his two terms.
His harsh criticism of Donald Trump alienated him from the conservative wing of the party but did not take much of a toll on his popularity – in fact it probably helped him.
Baker had his own style of governing, taking a mostly moderate to liberal path on social issues and a conservative path on fiscal issues. And it worked.
He left office in 2022 with astonishing approval ratings – nearly 70% across all demographic and political groups except conservatives, according to a UMass Amherst poll. He was far and away more popular than either of the two candidates running to replace him, including Maura Healey.
This came despite several scandals during the Covid era that cut into his popularity.
Seven in ten voters said he handled the pandemic well, with more than six in ten voters giving him high marks on the economy.
One third of voters said he left Massachusetts in better shape than when he first took over in 2015, while just 19% said it was worse off than before.
A MassINC poll released in Jan. 2022 found that 45% of voters wanted the next governor to be like Baker ideologically, and 42% were more likely to support a candidate who had Baker’s endorsement.