No one can accuse the Patriots of having a cupcake schedule this season.
The AFC East has undergone a makeover since Tom Brady retired and the Patriots stopped dominating the division. The Buffalo Bills are the new powerhouse, having won the AFC East each of the last three years. The Miami Dolphins and New York Jets have made recent pushes to unseat the Bills, however.
The Dolphins went 9-8 and made the playoffs under new head coach Mike McDaniel last season and should be even better on defense with two key additions. The Jets replaced draft bust Zach Wilson with four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers in the league’s biggest offseason upgrade at quarterback.
The Patriots should be better too after hiring adept offensive coaches, though the division is so tough, that might not be reflected in their record at season’s end.
The Herald’s Patriots beat writers preview the division.
Offense: Josh Allen has almost single-handedly carried the Bills offense over its most pivotal stretches. Buffalo is trying to change that.
The Bills reinforced their offensive line this offseason, signed running back Damien Harris and traded up to draft first-round tight end Dalton Kincaid. Buffalo wants to be more diverse, more threatening this year instead of asking Allen to play Superman. Expect an offense that leans more on two-tight end packages and runs the ball more successfully in obvious rushing situations. The Bills can, and will, turn to All-Pro wideout Stefon Diggs when they need to (and don’t forget about a potential post-hype breakout from Gabriel Davis), but this is an offense trying to find its final form, and it just might get there.
Defense: If All-Pro cornerback Tre’Davious White returns to form, he could transform this defense. The Bills already have one of the NFL’s best pass rushes (and will once Von Miller gets healthy), linebackers (Matt Milano) and safety duos. White, who tore his ACL at the end of the 2021 season, returned to play last Thanksgiving, but wasn’t the same. Assuming he shuts down one side of the field — which he did pre-injury — Bills opponents will have a tough time poking holes in this defense. One soft spot, however: linebacker next to Milano. The Bills lost high-priced free agent Tremaine Edmunds to Chicago.
Bottom line: The Bills remain division favorites for a reason. They boast the best quarterback, the highest floor and most well-rounded roster. Well-coached teams like Buffalo don’t bottom out. Anything short of another AFC East title and a trip to the Super Bowl would be a disappointment.
Offense: The Dolphins are relying on quarterback Tua Tagovailoa to stay healthy this season, which is a risky proposition. The former Alabama quarterback suffered at least two concussions during the 2022 season and missed four games. The Dolphins went 8-5 with Tagovailoa at the helm. Two of those losses came in games in which Tagovailoa suffered concussions. Miami went 1-3 in games Teddy Bridgewater and Skylar Thompson started at quarterback. The Dolphins replaced Bridgewater with ex-Jets backup Mike White, who was in concussion protocol until late August. The Dolphins are stacked at wide receiver with the NFL’s fastest 1-2 punch of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Tagovailoa was one of the NFL’s most efficient quarterbacks last season when healthy. McDaniel was unable to replicate his success with backups.
Defense: Owner Stephen Ross splurged this offseason to ensure his team would have a better defense by hiring Vic Fangio and making him the NFL’s richest defensive coordinator. Then the Dolphins sent a third-round pick and tight end Hunter Long to the Rams for All-Pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey. Subpar last season, the Dolphins’ defense has the potential to be dominant in 2023. Ramsey injured his meniscus early in training camp and is expected to miss some time, but the Dolphins have plenty of talent to disrupt offenses in his absence with defensive tackle Christian Wilkins, edge defenders Bradley Chubb, Emmanuel Ogbah and Jaelan Phillips, and defensive backs Jevon Holland and Xavien Howard.
Bottom line: The Dolphins will need to monitor Tagovailoa’s health closely and protect him well. Their success depends on his ability to stay on the field.
Offense: The Patriots signed helpful players on offense this offseason, but their most important offseason addition came in the form of offensive coordinator/quarterbacks coach Bill O’Brien and offensive line coach Adrian Klemm, who replace Matt Patricia and Joe Judge. The offense under quarterback Mac Jones suddenly looks competent with O’Brien holding the reins. Klemm’s unit will be tested early as guards Cole Strange and Mike Onwenu and offseason additions Riley Reiff and Calvin Anderson deal with injuries. Wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster replaces Jakobi Meyers in the slot, and Mike Gesicki is Hunter Henry’s new tandem tight end, supplanting Jonnu Smith. Add running back Ezekiel Elliott into the mix, and this offense should be far more capable in 2023 — as long as the O-line holds up, which is a big “if.”
Defense: The Patriots made it a point to bring back nearly every single contributor from a 2022 unit that finished as one of the NFL’s most efficient defenses. The biggest departure is a major one: free safety Devin McCourty retired. The plan is to fool offenses by rotating multiple safeties into that role. It’s great in theory and only time will tell how it will work in practice. Head coach Bill Belichick also added three potential impact-makers in the draft with cornerback Christian Gonzalez, edge defender Keion White and linebacker/safety Marte Mapu. Despite all the promise on offense, the Patriots’ defense will once again need to carry the team in 2023.
Bottom line: There’s a reason why the Patriots are projected to finish fourth in the division: too many unanswered questions. The offense is in much better shape this season, however.
Offense: Aaron Rodgers is the story. The hope. The engine driving everything for the Jets, but there are a few things he can’t do: block for himself or catch any of his passes. As much as Rodgers should elevate New York, there will be a ceiling on how high he can take them. If the O-line struggles, as it did last year, Rodgers and new running back Dalvin Cook, will, too. Then there’s Rodgers’ outside weapons, which no longer include No. 2 target Corey Davis, who retired. Get ready to see a lot of Garrett Wilson, a burgeoning star receiver, and Rodgers buying time in the pocket to either avoid pressure or help his other targets get open.
Defense: A dominant group from front to back. There’s no sugarcoating it for other fans outside the AFC East.
Sauce Gardner, the reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year, should be gunning for an All-Pro spot at cornerback, especially behind one of the NFL’s best defensive lines. The Jets locked up defensive tackle Quinnen Williams to a long-term extension this offseason, a wise move after he registered 12.5 sacks last year. In 2022, the Jets finished top five in points allowed and Football Outsiders’ opponent-and-situation adjusted metric, DVOA. Expecting a repeat isn’t unreasonable.
Bottom line: No team was hyped more this summer and offseason. But don’t forget, these are still the same old J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets.