The surest bet during the NFL Draft does not involve a player, pick or position.
It’s a coach, Bill Belichick, picking up the phone and finalizing a trade.
The Patriots are annually among the most active teams in the league come draft weekend, moving up and, often, down the board to maximize what they believe to be the best possible value from each class. Belichick has often traded back in the first round, but it’s been five straight years he’s moved up on Day 2. What will the Patriots do next?
Weighing their current needs and 11 scheduled draft picks, here are four potential Patriots trades heading into the draft:
If the Patriots move up in the first round, it will be more of a hop than a jump.
Here, Belichick is motivated to leap the offensive line-needy Titans and Jets, who could nab an elite tackle at 11th or 13th overall, respectively, before the Patriots are scheduled to make their first. In this scenario, the Patriots view Northwestern’s Peter Skoronski, Ohio State’s Paris Johnson Jr., Georgia product Broderick Jones or Tennessee’s Darnell Wright as head and shoulders above the other projected top picks, and trade up to draft him.
In return, they take a loss swapping third-rounders with Philadelphia and send one of their three fourth-round picks south. Historically, the Eagles have been as trade-happy as the Patriots come draft time. According to the Rich Hill trade value chart, a modernized version of Jimmy Johnson’s famous draft value chart, the exchange of draft capital here is virtually even.
Not a bad deal for a top-10 pick.
The Patriots are on the clock, and the Chargers call hoping to jump Green Bay at 15th overall.
The Chargers and Packers have similar needs, and here Los Angeles targets either a wide receiver (Ohio State’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Boston College’s Zay Flowers) or a tight end (Notre Dame’s Michael Mayer, Utah’s Dalton Kincaid) as the final building block to place around Justin Herbert.
Meanwhile, the Patriots add a starting-caliber cornerback in Davis, who’s 28 and on an expiring contract. Davis checks several boxes for the Patriots including size (6-2, 196), ball skills (16 pass breakups last year), tackling (only four missed tackles) and experience playing man and zone coverage. Last season, opposing quarterbacks had a rating of 77.1 when targeting him, per Pro Football Focus.
The Chargers can part ways with Davis knowing J.C. Jackson will return to health opposite Asante Samuel and 2022 draft picks Ja’Sir Taylor and Deane Leonard are positioned to make a Year 2 leap. Following recent trade history, Davis’ value — as a solid, veteran corner on an expiring contract — should be in the neighborhood of an early fifth-round pick.
So, viewing Davis as equivalent to an early fifth-rounder, the remaining trade value difference between the 14th and 21st overall picks is a late third-rounder worth 50 value points, per the Rich Hill trade chart. Lucky for the Patriots, that’s exactly how much the Bolts’ third-round pick is worth at 85th overall, and they throw in one of their three sixth-rounders to seal the deal.
Of note: the Patriots and Chargers have a history of doing business in the first round. In 2020, Los Angeles moved up to draft linebacker Kenneth Murray before the Pats later selected Kyle Dugger in the second round.
NFL notes: Is the Patriots’ interest in Kentucky QB Will Levis real?
Finally!
The Patriots give Mac Jones a borderline No. 1 receiver in Jeudy, who will have two years left on his contract if the team picks up his fifth-year option. Jeudy can play inside the slot and outside and led the NFL in average separation on targets just two seasons ago. He's only 24 and posted 972 yards and six touchdowns last year, despite injuries and subpar quarterback play.
Thus far, Denver has struck out shopping Jeudy for a first-round pick, but the Patriots come close by offering two picks that have a combined value of the 39th overall selection.
The Patriots' roster is low on blue-chip talent and therefore low on trade assets, which makes it difficult to find a deal where the front office willingly ships out one of its best players.
Unless the Patriots don't believe they'll be able to extend a young player on a cheap contract, a la Kyle Dugger or Josh Uche, it's on to reliable veterans with multiple years left on their deals. Enter Phillips.
Phillips is a perfect fit in Las Vegas, where the Raiders are low on defensive talent and safeties. He's a proven scheme fit for Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels and defensive coordinator Patrick Graham, both former Patriots assistants. Phillips is under contract through 2024, and his exit is offset by Jalen Mills' recent move back to safety where he can shoulder most of the snaps with Dugger and Jabrill Peppers.
In return, the Pats land a late-round pick and White, a 2022 fourth-round pick. He earned just 17 carries as a rookie and will again sit behind Josh Jacobs this season, unless McDaniels ships him east to the Patriots, who have reportedly shown interest in the blue-chip backs in the draft. Instead, the Pats land a Day 2 talent and Georgia product who slipped last season, but could carve out a nice role as a power back in Foxboro.