The 2023 season could be a crucial turning point in Mets history.
They have the highest payroll in baseball with $370 million committed before taxes. They have a roster littered with elite talent and the ability to take more on should they need to. Steve Cohen, who quite possibly might be the most popular owner in baseball right now, was high on the “vibes” at spring training.
Some might even say they were Amazin’.
The Mets are even favored by some Las Vegas oddsmakers to win the World Series.
In year No. 3 of the Cohen era, the Mets have shed their lovable loser identity and instead are poised to become a National League power, looking to improve on a 101-win 2022 campaign.
But the enthusiasm has been curbed in recent weeks. The Mets will be without closer Edwin Diaz for the season, who tore his patellar on his right knee while celebrating a win with Puerto Rico during the World Baseball Classic.
Typical Mets, right? They lost the best closer in baseball just months after signing him to a record contract. They signed free agent starting pitcher Jose Quintana, who has been the model of durability throughout his career, and with the Mets he developed a tumor on his rib that had to be repaired with bone graft surgery.
But this isn’t the typical team of the past. This team boasts considerable depth, so much that the Mets are starting three top prospects in Triple-A.
The Mets assembled a pitching staff deep enough to be able to compensate for the loss of Quintana. Absorbing the loss of Diaz will be more difficult, but again, this group assembled a bullpen with extensive experience pitching in high-leverage innings.
This is now a club with the resources to make impactful changes at several levels of the organization. The Mets are trying to turn their name into a more recognizable brand, one that is synonymous with winning instead of chaos.
So, the Mets have spared no expense when it comes to building a winning roster. Heading into the 2023 season, they have a deep group of starting pitchers, an experienced relief corps, a lineup full of hitters who can get on base and one of the most respected managers in the game in Buck Showalter.
The Mets are confident that a rotation with two aces is one that can not only get them to the playoffs, but can also help them win in the playoffs. There are six Cy Young Awards and three World Series championships between right-handers Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander and yet they’re still eager for more. It’s an intimidating 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation.
There is considerable excitement and intrigue surrounding right-hander Kodai Senga. The Japanese right-hander that signed a five-year contract with the Mets in December has a hard fastball and electric breaking stuff. His splitter, which was nicknamed the “ghost fork” in Japan for it’s tendency to disappear against hitters, flummoxed hitters during spring training. There will still be adjustments that need to be made throughout the season, his first in North America, but the Mets are hoping to use a six-man rotation during particularly difficult portions of the schedule, which should help Senga, who is used to pitching every six days in Japan.
Right-hander Carlos Carrasco is hoping to pick up where he left off last season, his healthiest in years, and homegrown left-hander David Peterson will be in the rotation to start the season as well. Right-hander Tylor Megill will be the sixth man when needed and will start the season in Syracuse, and the Mets have left-hander Joey Lucchesi and right-handers Dylan Bundy and Eliezer Hernandez behind him.
One could make the argument that Megill, Lucchesi and Hernandez would be on Major League rosters for other teams. But the Mets anticipate using all of these pitchers at some point this season.
Last season, Diaz converted 32 saves and posted a 1.31 ERA. The Mets were hoping he would repeat those numbers but knew that it might not be possible. However, with Diaz on the shelf through the end of the season, the save opportunities will now largely be based on matchups.
Expect former Yankees closer David Robertson, who came to the Mets as a free agent in December, to get the bulk of the save opportunities. Last fall, the Philadelphia Phillies based their closer on matchups and it took them all the way to the World Series, where Robertson saved Game 1.
The Mets also like left-hander Brooks Raley as a part-time closer, and a pair of right-handers in Drew Smith and John Curtiss could also be in that closer-by-committee mix. Curtiss hasn’t pitched since 2021 because of Tommy John surgery, but he was a key part of the Tampa Bay Rays bullpen during their 2020 World Series run and he impressed in spring training with a 2.70 ERA in 6 2/3 innings.
Adam Ottavino, who was huge for the Mets down the stretch last year, is back to continue working the middle innings.
Is there a chance someone could grab the closer role and run away with it? Sure. There’s also a chance the Mets acquire one at the trade deadline. But for now, the Mets think they have a group of relievers who can close games when called upon.
While much of the pitching staff turned over in the offseason, the lineup is more or less the same as it was last season. This isn’t a bad thing, considering lineup posted best batting average in the National League in 2022, the second-best on-base percentage in baseball, the fifth-most runs and the sixth-best OPS.
However, the Mets didn’t hit a lot of home runs last season and they didn’t do anything in the offseason to address that lack of power.
GM Billy Eppler likes a lineup full of athletes with on-base abilities and this is a lineup that can take a lot of pitches and get on base in a myriad of ways. Time will tell whether or not the criticism over the lack of power is overblown or not, but the Mets did the right thing by re-signing outfielder and leadoff hitter Brandon Nimmo and they added some speed and base-running with outfielder Tim Locastro. With the new rules encouraging more action on the basepaths, the Mets feel speed is now a necessary component to a roster.
The lineup is intimidating 1-6 with Nimmo, Starling Marte, Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, NL batting champ Jeff McNeil and Mark Canha. There are questions about what to do with the DH since the Mets designated Darin Ruf for assignment Monday. When Daniel Vogelbach isn’t in the lineup, Showalter will probably turn to Tommy Pham, namely against left-handed pitching. This might be an area of upgrade for the Mets at the trade deadline, but if they produce runs at the same rate as last year then the need might not be as great.
ZiPS has the Mets going 94-68 and tying with the Atlanta Braves in the NL East. The model projects Atlanta to win the division, meaning the Mets would be a Wild Card team for the second straight season. PECOTA has the Mets coming out ahead of the Braves and winning the NL East with a similar record.
Two years ago, the Mets celebrated the start of a new era when Cohen purchased the team from the Wilpon family. It was a rocky start, but the operation is stable right now and the organization has lofty goals.
Can the Mets live up to them? Cohen, Eppler and Showalter are going to do everything they can to try to make sure they do.
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