I mean, the Ace of Spades Decision Desk already called it, but whatever.

Former President Donald Trump has won the critical swing state of Michigan, NBC News projects, netting the Republican 15 Electoral College votes over Vice President Kamala Harris.

Michigan has been one of the nation's most hotly contested battlegrounds since it helped Trump pull off a surprise victory in 2016. It had been seen as a linchpin of Harris' path to keeping the White House in Democratic hands. No Democrat has won the White House without Michigan since Jimmy Carter in 1976.

Trump campaigned aggressively in the Upper Midwest state, which was also home to a contested Senate race, with promises to revive the domestic manufacturing that once gave the Rust Belt its name and claims that Michigan's massive auto industry would not survive without him in power.

The actual Decision Desk HQ projects the GOP will keep the House.

Eric Daugherty
@EricLDaugh

BREAKING: Republicans expected to take the House of Representatives, now with a 95% chance, delivering Donald Trump a GOP trifecta - DDHQ

Unfortunately, it looks like three Senate seats I thought were in the bag are now at best only possible.

Nevada could be a pickup too, although this one is truly on a razor's edge. At the moment, Republican challenger Sam Brown leads Democrat incumbent Jacky Rosen by around 1800 votes and 0.1 points. Clark County (Las Vegas) has just about finished, but Washoe is another Democrat-leaning county and they're only 75% reported. Rosen only leads in Washoe by three points, though, so it may not be decisive. A few other deep-red counties are still counting significant numbers of ballots, so this one's a real toss-up and may not be settled today.
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Michigan and Wisconsin are still possible, but looking less likely. Mike Rogers trails Elissa Slotkin by one-tenth of a point and 8500 votes, but there's not much left to report except Emmet and Antrim counties. Can Rogers find a net gain to take the lead? We'll see. Tammy Baldwin seems more firmly placed for re-election over Eric Hovde in Wisconsin, leading by 0.7 points and 23,000 votes. (Update: DecisionDesk HQ called this for Baldwin as I was writing the post.)

Right now, the GOP has a possible range of 52-55 Senate seats, and a probable range of 53-54. That's a good night for Republicans, although perhaps a bit disappointing given Donald Trump's apparent popular-vote victory.

McCormick is clinging to a small lead against Casey in Pennsylvania.

Damn, I thought we could win 55-56.