I disputed some commenters' claims that things are looking "rosy" for Trump. I guess some Democrats agree with them.
Democrats' nerves are at an all-time high.
Two months ago -- even a month ago -- they were feeling bullish about Vice President Harris's prospects of defeating former President Trump.
But now, with less than a month to go until Election Day, they're increasingly worried about a number of issues plaguing the Democratic nominee's campaign.
On Tuesday, there was grumbling from some Democrats about the vice president's interview on CBS's "60 Minutes."
There's also concern on everything from the static poll numbers in the race to the vice president's messaging and even her standing with men -- not just white men but Black and Hispanic men, too.
Some of this perhaps can just be chalked up to normal Democratic nerves ahead of what looks like it could be among the closest presidential elections in history. Either way, it's nerve-racking for Democrats.
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"We can't look back with any level of security [I think these illiterates meant "surety"] because we haven't had an African American woman on the ticket. We haven't had a former president running again. We haven't had a campaign with two assassination attempts. We haven't switched out a candidate two months before Election Day before."
"So it's just hard to know," Simmons explained. "If you're not nervous, you're not paying attention."
Democratic strategist Anthony Coley, who served in the Biden administration, acknowledged the trepidation, pointing to the stagnant poll numbers in the weeks following the Democratic National Convention, when Democrats were making comparisons between Harris's campaign and former President Obama's run in 2008.
"Now that the sugar high is gone, people have realized what Kamala Harris has said from the start, which is that she is the underdog," Coley said. "This is going to be a fight. ... These numbers are just so stubborn."
I don't like cherry-picking positive poll reports to suggest some kind of broad agreement of polls in our favor, but I'll indulge myself here, because this does seem interesting. If true.
Democrats are now taking on water in Wisconsin. It's no longer an outlier: Wisconsin is in play, and incumbent Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin, who has hidden from national Democrats, knows this well, too. The national polling is irrelevant here, as her team's internals show Ms. Baldwin ahead by only two points. The Cook Political Report reclassified the race as a "toss-up," not the best of news, with less than a month before Election Day. Now, Democrats are scrambling, but this news out of Wisconsin also highlights a brutal part of Kamala Harris' operation: she flat-out cannot connect with working people.
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Baldwin's internals have Donald Trump leading Kamala by three points in the state (via WSJ) [emphasis mine]:
Democrats have privately grown worried about Kamala Harris's standing among working-class voters in the crucial "blue-wall" states--particularly in Michigan.Donald Trump has assiduously courted union members and noncollege-educated white voters with a message focused on high costs, manufacturing and the threat of China to the U.S. economy. Senior Democrats, including Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, want a sharper economic appeal from Harris and have conveyed those concerns to her campaign, according to people familiar with the conversations. They also would like the vice president to spend more time campaigning in the state.
Michigan Democrats have urged the campaign to make more overt appeals to auto workers and blue-collar workers by emphasizing the administration's work to grow the industry and build new plants.
[...]
Recent polling shows Harris and Trump essentially tied in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Winning the blue wall, along with Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, remains her strongest path to 270 Electoral College votes, as she is doing slightly worse in polls of competitive Sunbelt states.
An internal poll done by Democrat Tammy Baldwin's Senate campaign last week showed Harris down by 3 percentage points in Wisconsin, while Baldwin was up by two points, according to a person familiar with the poll. The person said much of the narrowing is due to Republicans' strength with noncollege-educated men. Public polling has shown Harris with a slight lead in the state.
But they probably won't turn out.
Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
New @CookPolitical: in key battlegrounds, Trump's best bet remains high turnout of less engaged voters. Among voters who always show up, Harris still leads by four, 51%-47%. But among low/mid-propensity, Trump's back up to a 52%-45% lead.
How can they be turned out? I don't know. I don't think anyone knows. The trouble is, Trump attracts a lot of disaffected voters, voters who feel little investment in American politics precisely because they have been ignored for 40+ years. The Regime's plan worked perfectly: these voters are now alienated and silenced due to their (very plausible) belief that their votes and voices just don't matter.
How do you get people to completely reverse their stance on non-engagement with a corrupt, ruthless, anti-citizen Regime?
David Strom had a post the other day about polls being "all over the map."
Here's one important chart. This shows Trump's current polling versus his 2020 polling. And 2020 polling vs. 2016 polling. Biden polled better than Hillary did and he (allegedly) barely won.
Just as Biden's improvement over 2016 resulted in a "win" (allegedly), then Trump's improvement over 2020 should bring Joy.
Trump's so brat.
Kamala still can't answer in what way she'd be different than Biden, except to say, accurately, that she is not the same human being as Joe Biden, and that she's not Trump, which is... avoiding the question.
Trump just dropped a new ad consisting of nothing but Kamala's admission that there is not an inch of separation between herself and Biden:
Real News Outlet Axios has a huge scoop which will bring Joy: Get this, Republicans are planning a massive ad spend on that ad:
Below, some of the black voters Kamala has lost: