Short answer...There are no realistic paths to peace.
A series of very difficult decisions lies ahead for Israel. Any rational understanding of the Arab/Muslim world yields a basic truth; they respect and fear power, and they have contempt for weakness and vacillation. The events of the last 30 years since the Oslo Accords has been depressing series of Israeli military successes that were immediately undermined by the willful ignorance of the Arab psyche on the part of the Israeli political class. The assumption that terrorist groups can be moderated by giving them political power and the cachet of a seat at the United Nations is arrant stupidity. The world's record on reformation of terrorists is not impressive. And when one adds the rabid hatred of Jews and Israel being inculcated into every Gazan and West Bank Arab from infancy, and the prospects for a benign Jeffersonian democracy on the shores of the Jordan River and the Mediterranean become murky at best.
And let us not forget the stalking horse of a Shia Arab Caliphate being vigorously promoted by Iran...without a doubt the world's foremost supporter of terrorism and Muslim intransigence. Iran is the head of the snake, and until the Mullahs are deposed from within by the people of Iran, or from without by the aggressive application of military power, the idea that the groups aligned against Israel will accept a peace -- cold or warm -- is a silly and naive talking point of the chattering classes.
Gaza must be taught that Israel is bigger, stronger, more technologically sophisticated, and will never stop until its borders and people are safe. That means an ongoing war against every bit of the Hamas insanity that remains. The death of Sinwar is a welcome victory, but he was not the creator of the death cult that consumes Gaza, and his demise will not end it. Gaza needs to learn to fear Israel more than it fears Hamas and its controllers in Tehran. They need to be beaten, and to see nothing on the horizon except misery until they give up the dream of the destruction of the state of Israel.
The situation in Lebanon is even more insane. There is an Iranian proxy army on the border of Israel, in direct contravention of the dictates of the United Nations. I know how shocking that is...that the UN was not only incapable of enforcing a simple requirement, but that they, at best, turned a blind eye to the rapid militarization of South Lebanon and, at worst, supported it!
Israel will have to push Hezbollah back beyond the Litani River, and create a demilitarized zone. That means the destruction of large swaths of Lebanon and the displacement of many people, some of whom are willing participants and some of whom are innocents.
But that is war. Innocents suffer...probably more than the armies. But it is an existential problem for Israel, and with an aggressive offensive against its enemies and a shift from accommodation to destruction, Israel can fight its last war for a very long time. Bu that means pushing back against the current stupidity amongst the political elites of the West that the genocidal behavior of Iran Hezbollah, the PLO/PA, and Hamas can be moderated.
It can't be. The negotiation would have to include the numbers of dead Israelis that are acceptable. The Israeli psyche seems to have changed...no longer will they accept some low level of genocidal behavior on their borders and in their cities and preschools and bus stops and supermarkets. That means war, but for once a war with a defined goal...the safety of Israel and the security of a secure border.
The strangest thing about the conspicuous lack of support for Israel's new-found focus is that the destruction of Hamas, Hezbollah and, ultimately, Iran will have profound salutary effects on the West. Yet the bien pensants in the capitals of Europe and, sadly, America have made their own calculations about an acceptable number of deaths of their citizens, and more chilling, the citizens of Israel.
They are good at that...sacrificing their own people on the altar of post-modern guilt and cultural ambiguity. But they are also sacrificing others...Israelis, and lots and lots of Gazans and Lebanese!
It seems as though Israel has had enough of that. Hopefully in the coming months the people of Gaza and Lebanon and Iran will also!