Gray Agenda on.

I expected Trump to get no more than a 1-2 point bump after the assassination attempt.

The reasons:

1, Trump is deeply divisive, and most of those who have decided against him are not wishy-washy on the issue, they're hard no's. They hate him. Their entire identity consists of hating him and/or writing turgid blog posts for National Review.

2, Trump has already improved his standing with the public. He limped through his presidency with a 43% approval rating, on average, but he's up to a 46% approval now. Trump has attracted some of the persuadables already. How many are left? Not many.

3, the assassination attempt will be thought of as Divine Providence by those who already support Trump. For the haters, of course, it just confirms their hatred for the God they say doesn't exist. For undecided people, it's just luck. In other words, Trump's survival will mostly be taken as a positive sign by people already supporting Trump, thus having a small effect, if any. I never really thought it would have the galvanizing effect that others were imagining.

The leftwing pollster Morning Consult -- actually, it's not even a poll; I believe it's a tracking survey, where the same group of people are "polled" over and over in exchange for small payments -- finds Trump gaining two points.

InteractivePolls
@IAPolls2022

2024 GE: @MorningConsult

Trump: 46% [+2]
Biden: 42% [=]
Other: 8%

Jun. 16: Biden +1
Jun. 30: Trump +1
July 17: Trump +4 (highest since Feb)

[+/- change vs July 12-14]

I saw another poll -- can't find it now -- that showed Trump gaining nothing at all, but Biden losing two points of support. Something like 46%-44% in Trump's favor turning into 46-42. I don't see how the failed assassination attempt would not help Trump but rather hurt Biden, but of course there's a lot of meaningless variation between polls.

An poll of just voters in Georgia and blue Virginia has worse news for Biden.

Post-Incident Shift: In Virginia, the gap between Trump and Biden has closed to a tie at 44% each after the attempt on Trump's life, with some Democrats switching to undecided or Trump.

Stable Lead in Georgia: Trump maintains a lead of 49% to Biden's 43% in Georgia, unaffected by the assassination attempt or the inclusion of Robert Kennedy Jr. in the race.

Project 2025 Opposition: Over 60% of voters in both states are aware of the conservative-led Project 2025, with significant opposition particularly among Democrats, minorities, and educated voters.

An Emerson poll shows Trump with a two-point lead on Biden in Virginia.

nteractivePolls
@IAPolls2022

VIRGINIA GE: @EmersonPolling

Trump: 45%
Biden: 43%
Undecided: 12%

But... they're tied with leaning voters included.

But again, Trump jumps out to a five-point lead in a full field (not just head to head with The Vegetable.)

With leans
Trump: 50%
Biden: 50%

...

Trump: 43%
Biden: 38%
RFK Jr: 8%
Stein: 2%
West: 2%

Biden has no hope at all without Virginia. When you add in the other swing states which now seem pretty solid for Trump -- Nevada, Georgia, Arizona -- it almost looks like Trump doesn't even need any of the states of the "blue wall." (I'm not sure of that. But Virginia has 13 EVs, and we weren't even previously thinking of it as a real swing state.)

Emerson's poll of the other swing states shows Trump leading them all.

A five point lead makes one candidate "likely" to win it. A 2-4 point lead is a "leaning" state," and a ten point lead is a "solid" state.

All but Michigan are now "likely" for Trump. With other candidates included, Trump is +10 in Arizona.

InteractivePolls
@IAPolls2022

SWING STATES POLL: Emerson

North Carolina - Trump +7
Arizona - Trump +7
Georgia - Trump +6
Pennsylvania - Trump +5
Wisconsin - Trump +5
Nevada - Trump +5
Michigan - Trump +3

----

With RFK Jr + other candidates

Arizona - Trump +10
North Carolina - Trump +9
Pennsylvania - Trump +6
Georgia - Trump +5
Wisconsin - Trump +3
Nevada - Trump +3
Michigan - Trump +3
----
Generic Congressional Ballot

Arizona - GOP +5
Georgia - GOP +4
North Carolina - GOP +4
Pennsylvania - GOP +1
Wisconsin - GOP +1
Nevada - GOP +1
Michigan - TIE

Another poll:

InteractivePolls
@IAPolls2022
???????? Swing States Poll: @InsiderPolling

PENNSYLVANIA
Trump: 49% (+4)
Biden: 45%
Other: 4%
--
NEVADA
Trump: 49% (+7)
Biden: 42%
Other: 5%
--
ARIZONA
Trump: 49% (+5)
Biden: 44%

Trump is also doing well in New Hampshire and even Minnesota and New Mexico. Even New York and New Jersey are now competitive (though Biden remains favored).

Pollsters are now running Trump vs. Kamala Harris. It's not great for Harris.

Bettors now see Kamala Harris more likely to be president than Biden. They give Trump a 66% chance of being president in January 2025, a 20% chance to Kamala, and only give Biden a 6% chance.

People have told me that these betting markets tend to be skewed to the Democrat side. So we might be seeing a lot of Democrat Wishcasting in this idea that Biden won't even be the candidate.