On Friday, the NYT released a new poll showing Trump poised to win the most black votes since the Civil War.
Okay I made that last factoid up. But he's doing well.
Nearly eight out of 10 Black voters nationwide said they would vote for Ms. Harris, the poll found, a marked increase from the 74 percent of Black voters who said they would support Mr. Biden before he dropped out of the race in July. But Mr. Biden won 90 percent of Black voters to capture the White House by narrow margins in 2020, and the drop-off for Ms. Harris, if it holds, is large enough to imperil her chances of winning key battleground states.
Democrats have been banking on a tidal wave of support from Black voters, drawn by the chance to elect the first Black female president and by revulsion toward former President Donald J. Trump, whose questioning of Ms. Harris's racial identity, comments on "Black jobs" and demonizing of Haitian immigrants pushed his long history of racist attacks to the forefront of the campaign.
Ms. Harris is no doubt on track to win an overwhelming majority of Black voters, but Mr. Trump appears to be chipping away broadly at a longstanding Democratic advantage. His campaign has relied on targeted advertising and sporadic outreach events to court African American voters -- especially Black men -- and has seen an uptick in support. About 15 percent of Black likely voters said they planned to vote for the former president, according to the new poll, a six-point increase from four years ago.
Much of the erosion in support for Ms. Harris is driven by a growing belief that Democrats, who have long celebrated Black voters as the "backbone" of their party, have failed to deliver on their promises, the poll showed. Forty percent of African American voters under 30 said the Republican Party was more likely to follow through on its campaign commitments than Democrats were.
"They sweep table scraps off the table like we're a trained dog and say, 'This is for you,'" LaPage Drake, 63, of Cedar Hill, Texas, just outside Dallas, said of the Democratic Party. "And we clap like trained seals."
Mr. Drake, who owns a tree removal service, said he would back Mr. Trump.
"Regardless of how people call him racist and stuff, he is for the country of America," Mr. Drake said.
The NYT followed up with a Deep Dive into this unprecedented development -- voters actually deciding who to vote for based on announced policies and past results without taking race into it much.
What a terrible racist idea!
In 2016, Donald J. Trump became the Republican nominee and ultimately won the presidency after calling many Mexican immigrants rapists and falsely claiming that Barack Obama was not born in the United States.
Eight years later, the polls suggest that he might well return to the White House by faring better among Black and Hispanic voters combined than any Republican presidential nominee since the enactment of the Civil Rights Act in 1964.
Off to a great start, NYT.
As that MSNBC producer told James O'Keefe's honeypot agent, we now know all the major fake news outlets are completely dominated by "audience capture" -- the little remaining audience is self-selecting hard partisans.
And the Times has to be very careful when dealing with the fanatics they cater too. If they're going to admit that Trump is doing better with minorities, they have to blunt the impact of that by laying out various beloved factoids proving that Bad Orange Man is Bad.
A spoonful of sugar to help the medicine go down is supposed to be a tactic used to placate little children.
Almost any way we can measure it, Mr. Trump is running as well or better among Black and Hispanic voters as any Republican in recent memory. In 2020, Joe Biden's Black support was 92 percent among major-party voters; his Hispanic support was 63 percent, according to Times estimates.
...
The truth is there are many explanations and they're hard to untangle. Here, I'll offer five explanations offered by the survey. This list is not comprehensive -- not even close. But each one plays a role in the story.
Before going on, an important thing to keep in mind: While Mr. Trump is doing far better than prior Republicans, he is still far from winning a majority of the Black or Hispanic vote. As a consequence, many of the factors helping Mr. Trump apply only to a minority of Black and Hispanic voters. Even so, Democrats have typically won these groups by such wide margins that even modest support by Black or Hispanic voters can lay the groundwork for politically significant gains.
1. They don't mind the dog whistles
To liberals, Mr. Trump's views on race, crime and immigration are little more than racist dog whistles.
Many Black and Hispanic voters feel similarly, but a surprising number hear those dog whistles and like what they're hearing.
Around 40 percent of Black voters and 43 percent of Hispanic voters say they support building a wall along the Southern border. Similarly, 45 percent of Hispanic voters and 41 percent of Black voters say they support deporting undocumented immigrants.Half of Hispanic voters and nearly half -- 47 percent -- of Black voters say that crime in big cities is a major problem that's gotten out of control. That's essentially the same as the share of white voters (50 percent) who say the same.
The support for Mr. Trump's views extends beyond issues related to race and immigration. A majority of Black and Hispanic voters seem to sympathize with his "America First" foreign policy, saying that America ought to pay less attention to problems overseas and concentrate on problems at home. Previous Times/Siena surveys have found that a substantial share of Black and Hispanic voters agree with Mr. Trump on trade as well.
Or put differently: There's a lot about Mr. Trump's core populist, conservative message that resonates with a sizable chunk of Black and Hispanic voters.
2. They're not offended; they might even be entertained
Of course, Mr. Trump hasn't just used dog whistles in his campaigns. Sometimes, he's used a bullhorn.
During his time in national politics, he has offended millions of Black and Hispanic voters, including by recently saying that Haitian refugees eat cats and dogs and that undocumented immigrants are "poisoning the blood of our country."
But a sizable minority of Black and Hispanic voters aren't necessarily so offended.
Overall, 20 percent of Black voters say that those offended by Mr. Trump take him too seriously, while 78 percent agree people have good reason to be offended.
Similarly, 40 percent of Hispanic voters say people offended by Mr. Trump take his words too seriously, while 55 percent say there's good reason to be offended. And importantly, only about one-third of Hispanic voters say Mr. Trump is talking about them when he's talking about problems with immigration.
Why aren't more Black and Hispanic voters offended by Mr. Trump? One possible factor: He hasn't necessarily offended them so much recently.
While most voters have been offended by Mr. Trump at some point, a substantial 53 percent of Hispanics and 35 percent of Black voters said they hadn't found anything he has said recently to be offensive. Those tallies are down a bit from earlier in the year -- perhaps the remarks about Haitian refugees are a factor -- but I'd guess more voters would have said they had been offended recently if we had asked the same question in the heart of the 2016 campaign.
This is part of the reason -- a smaller part -- Trump is generally doing better in polls.
Three national polls released Sunday depict a tightening presidential race, with former President Trump erasing recent gains from Vice President Kamala Harris with just 23 days to go.
Why it matters: Harris started to pull away from Trump in several national polls in September, but all three new polls show a neck-and-neck race nationally.
By the numbers:
An ABC/Ipsos poll of likely voters found Harris up 50% to Trump's 48%, down from a six-point lead for Harris last month.
A CBS/YouGov poll of likely voters showed Harris up 51% to 48%, down from a four-point lead in September.
An NBC poll of registered voters found a dead heat, 48% to 48% -- a major slide from 49% to 44% in Harris' favor last month.
Kamala Harris is now spending three full days, less than four weeks from the election, courting black men. It's not a good sign that she's forced to pander to what was supposed to be an unshakeable cadre of True Democrat Believers.
She went on "Charlemagne 'tha God's" podcast. Some black churchmen object to using a guy who calls himself 'tha God' to preach to believing Christians.
'Black Men Are Not Political Infants': Detroit Pastor Slams Harris for 'Exploiting' Black Voters, Says 'Virtue Signaling' Won't Work
October 15, 2024
A prominent black Detroit pastor slammed Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris for "virtue signaling" and "exploiting" his community, saying that "black men are not political infants."
"We will not allow virtue signaling. We will not allow identity politics. Black men are not political infants," Pastor Lorenzo Sewell of Detroit's 180 Church said during an appearance on Fox & Friends, referring to Harris's recent outreach to black voters. "We know exactly what's happening with the Democratic Party. We know that they've exploited us for over six decades, and we are saying, just like Moses said to Pharaoh, 'Let my people go.'"
Sewell's remarks come in response to Harris's planned interview Tuesday evening with black podcaster and comedian Lenard Larry McKelvey, known professionally as Charlamagne tha God, in Detroit. The interview is part of Harris's campaign effort to regain support from black men in a key swing state as recent polls indicate her backing is slipping.
"I have never been so offended in my life," Sewell said. "She's bringing a man here who is Charlamagne, a false god, to a community that has 4,500 churches, all people of faith. We are extremely offended that she's bringing a podcaster here to talk to black men about politics."
The Times is angry that Trump is bringing his "grievance politics" to black Democrats, who, of course, have never, ever been exposed to the politics of grievance and so have no immunity to the infection built up.
Charlemagne "tha God's" show was not entirely the cakewalk Kamala was hoping for:
During a town hall interview on October 15, 2024, radio host Charlamagne tha God pressed Vice President Kamala Harris on her handling of key issues, including the border crisis. The event, aimed at boosting Harris's appeal to black voters just weeks before the election, quickly became confrontational as Charlamagne challenged Harris on both policy and perception.
The discussion around immigration grew heated when Charlamagne confronted Harris on the Biden administration's track record. "Y'all did get a lot of things wrong with the border," Charlamagne said, highlighting the administration's struggles in managing illegal immigration over the past three years. Border encounters surged to record highs under Harris's leadership before slightly declining in recent months. Harris pivoted, focusing on legislative efforts, such as a failed immigration bill, but Charlamagne wasn't satisfied with her response.
Charlamagne also took issue with Harris's long-winded answers, referring to her tendency to stick to prepared remarks as "filibustering." This frustration came to a head when Harris was asked about reparations for black Americans, which she again avoided answering directly, instead offering general economic policies. The host repeatedly tried to bring Harris back to the specific issue at hand, calling out her evasion tactics.
Throughout the hour-long session, Charlamagne continuously pressed Harris on other matters, including her past as a prosecutor, her stance on foreign aid, and marijuana convictions during her tenure as district attorney. The exchanges highlighted Harris's struggle to break away from scripted responses, drawing criticism that echoed broader voter concerns about her authenticity and handling of key issues like immigration.