I know a lot of you are bored by polls, but let me just do this slumpbuster to get started with the week.
Biden clings to a 1 point lead in Michiganistan.
I believe Trump's path to victory consists of winning NC, GA, and AZ, and then winning one of WI, PA, and MI.
So if the results in this poll were the real results of voting, Trump would win.
Former President Donald Trump is leading President Joe Biden in five crucial battleground states previously won by Biden, according to a comprehensive poll conducted by The New York Times, Siena College, and The Philadelphia Inquirer.
Surveys conducted across six states--Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin--involved 4,097 registered voters.
Both 18-to-29-year-olds and Hispanic voters, who predominantly supported Biden in 2020, now show divided loyalties, closely split between the two candidates.
Trump has garnered over 20 percent of the Black vote in these states, a level of support unseen for a Republican since the Civil Rights Act of 1964.
...
Nevada: Trump leads with 51% to Biden's 38%, and in a three-way race, Trump has 44%, Biden 30%, RFK Jr 11%, and others 3%.
Arizona: Trump is ahead at 49% compared to Biden's 43%, and in another scenario, Trump at 44%, Biden 35%, RFK Jr 8%.
Pennsylvania: Trump has a 48% to 45% lead over Biden, and in a broader field, 41% for Trump, 37% for Biden, with RFK Jr at 9%.
Wisconsin: Trump holds a narrow lead of 47% to Biden's 46%, and in a more divided race, Trump leads with 40%, Biden has 39%, and RFK Jr 8%.
Georgia: Trump stands at 50% over Biden's 41%, and with additional candidates, Trump has 42%, Biden 34%, RFK Jr 8%.
Michigan: Biden maintains a slight advantage, leading 47% to Trump's 46%, and in a varied field, Biden with 42%, Trump 39%, RFK Jr 7%.