Someone's gonna rock a Pulitzer for this!
Five years ago, Raymond Teachey voted, as usual, for the Democratic presidential nominee.
But by last fall, Mr. Teachey, an aircraft mechanic from Bucks County, Pa., was rethinking his political allegiances. To him, the Democratic Party seemed increasingly focused on issues of identity at the expense of more tangible day-to-day concerns, such as public safety or the economy.
"Some of them turned their back on their base," Mr. Teachey, 54, said.
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Now, Democrats hope to bring these voters back into the fold for the midterm elections in 2026, betting on a backlash to Mr. Trump and his party's far-reaching moves to slash the social safety net.
"Slash the social safety net" = "require able-bodied adults to at least pretend to look for work to qualify for Medicaid" + "kick illegal aliens off of social services set up for Americans"
But in interviews with nearly 30 predominantly working-class voters who supported Mr. Biden in 2020 before defecting or struggling deeply with their choices last year, many had a stinging message for the Democratic Party.
Just because we have misgivings about Mr. Trump, they say, it doesn't mean we like you.
"I think I'm done with the Democrats," said Desmond Smith, 24, a deli worker from Smithdale, Miss., and a Black man who said he backed Mr. Biden in 2020 at the height of the racial justice protests. But last year, disillusioned by what he saw as the party's overemphasis on identity politics and concerned about illegal immigration, he voted for Mr. Trump.
Asked how Democrats could win him back, he said, "Fight for Americans instead of fighting for everybody else."
Sounds kind of Racist, White African-American.
An in-depth post-election study from Pew Research Center suggests that about 5 percent of Mr. Biden's voters in 2020 switched to Mr. Trump in 2024, while roughly 15 percent of those voters stayed home last year. Mr. Trump retained more of his 2020 voters than Democrats did, a crucial factor in winning the election.
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"They're doing nothing to move their own numbers because they don't have an economic message," said John Anzalone, a veteran Democratic pollster who worked on that survey.
"They think that this is about Trump's numbers getting worse," he added. "They need to worry about their numbers."
Here are five takeaways from those conversations.
Biden's disastrous re-election bid fueled a trust issue. It hasn't gone away.
Kyle Bielski, 35, an executive chef at a private club, said he had typically voted for Democrats until last year's presidential election, when he backed Mr. Trump.
Democratic leaders had insisted that the plainly frail Mr. Biden was vigorous enough to run, and they had encouraged skeptical voters to fall in line. Instantly after he dropped out, they urged Democrats to unite behind the candidacy of Kamala Harris, who was then the vice president.
"It almost seemed wrong," continued Mr. Bielski, who lives in Phoenix. "It was kind of like, OK, the same people that were just running the country are now telling us that this is the person that we should vote for."
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Worried about paying the bills, they saw Democrats as too focused on cultural issues.
Many in this multiracial group of voters said they thought Democrats had gone too far in promoting transgender rights or in emphasizing matters of racial identity.
But often, they were more bothered by their perception that those discussions had come at the expense of addressing economic anxieties.
"It seemed like they were more concerned with D.E.I. and L.G.B.T.Q. issues and really just things that didn't pertain to me or concern me at all," said Kendall Wood, 32, a truck driver from Henrico County, Va. He said he voted for Mr. Trump last year after backing Mr. Biden in 2020. "They weren't concerned with, really, kitchen-table issues."
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They worry about illegal immigration. But some think Trump's crackdowns are going too far.
Sarah Smarty, a home health aide and an author from McClure, Pa., said she voted for Mr. Biden in 2020 and Mr. Trump in 2024.Credit...Hannah Yoon for The New York Times
These voters often said they agreed with Mr. Trump on the need to stem the flow of illegal immigration and strengthen border security.
But some worried about the administration's crackdown, which has resulted in sweeping raids, children being separated from their parents, the deportation of American citizens and a growing sense of fear in immigrant communities.
What?
Meanwhile, New Jersey voters are seeing their electricity bills triple due to the state's "global warming" mitigation laws, which may make the state ripe for a takeover.
Remember, Trump lost NJ by less than five points.
When my friend Rebecca in Highland Park, NJ, opened her PSE&G gas and electric bill last month, she almost fell out of her seat: It had tripled.
It's now costing her more than $1,000 a month to keep her modest home running.
"It's been creeping up for months, in spite of the fact that nothing about our house has changed," she told me. "In years past, it was averaging about $300 a month."
"I don't know how we're expected to absorb these new bills," she posted on Facebook.
Her neighbor Felix Urman wondered the same as he ticked off his household costs for me.
"Property taxes are up 6.3%," he said -- on top of what had already been the nation's highest.
"Car insurance up 15%. Home insurance up 17%. Health insurance up 19%.
"I don't know how non-dermatologists are living in New Jersey," he concluded.
That question -- how are we expected to live here? -- is why the solidly blue Garden State is rapidly turning purple.
Affordability and taxes, at 54% and 43% respectively, have become the defining issues in New Jersey's tightening governor's race.
The latest survey, released this week, showed Democratic Party nominee Mikie Sherrill leading Republican Jack Ciattarelli by just 6 percentage points.
Those who ranked affordability as their primary issue were split over which candidate is better equipped to handle it: 36% of them named Sherrill, while 34% chose Ciattarelli.
But on taxes, Ciattarelli holds a commanding lead. When asked which candidate would do a better job lowering them, 50% picked the Republican, compared to just 15% who went for the Democrat.
California trended twelve points more Republican between 2020 and 2024.
California has historically been a heavily Democratic state, selecting a Democrat in every presidential election since 1992. But recent polls have indicated the tide could be turning on the Democrats in the Golden State. It comes after the state shifted toward the GOP by 12 points in 2024 compared to 2020, with Donald Trump increasing his vote share in nearly every county in the state. The Republicans also flipped three seats in the state Legislature last year.
If the Democratic Party loses ground in California, it could reshape the state's leadership as early as 2026, when the next governor will be elected and most of California's state Legislature will be up for election.
A pollster -- I think -- named Karen George discussed the "red blooms" growing in California.
Working class voters and Hispanics are abandoning the Democrat Cult: