There are fresh strikes, which I'll get to in a bit. Let me digest the whole first night of the Israel-Iran War.
Which is what it is.
This post will be about the strikes against Iran's air defenses and nuclear sites. I'll do another post about their strikes against Revolutionary Guards and Air Force generals later.
I've had a pro-Israel friend who was so beside himself over his belief that Trump was selling out Israel that I had to quit the chat group I was in. I was tired of hearing it every hour on the hour.
I want to rejoin just to see what he's saying now.
Apparently Trump did want to negotiate with Iran, to see if he could pull an Art of the Deal coup and avoid war.
But Trump knew there was a countdown clock running, and a hard deadline.
Iran made it clear that they were just jerking him off -- as they've done with every US president, pretending to "negotiate" while they build their nukes.
The deadline passed.
Israel took out Iran's nuke sites, Revolutionary Guard leaders, Air Force leaders.
And Trump knew this was coming the whole time he was negotiating with Iran.
Two can play at the Talk While You Plan War game.
The operation, which is continuing into Friday, came after President Donald Trump asked Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to give Iran 60 days for negotiation. Operation Rising Lion commenced on Day 61.
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In the first post at 5:56 a.m. ET, Trump lamented that the Iranian leadership wouldn't make a deal:
I gave Iran chance after chance to make a deal. I told them, in the strongest of words, to "just do it," but no matter how hard they tried, no matter how close they got, they just couldn't get it done. I told them it would be much worse than anything they know, anticipated, or were told, that the United States makes the best and most lethal military equipment anywhere in the World, BY FAR, and that Israel has a lot of it, with much more to come - And they know how to use it. Certain Iranian hardliner's [sic] spoke bravely, but they didn't know what was about to happen. They are all DEAD now, and it will only get worse! There has already been great death and destruction, but there is still time to make this slaughter, with the next already planned attacks being even more brutal, come to an end. Iran must make a deal, before there is nothing left, and save what was once known as the Iranian Empire. No more death, no more destruction, JUST DO IT, BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE. God Bless You All!
In the second post at 7:36 a.m. ET, the president reiterated that there's still time for Iran to negotiate:
Two months ago I gave Iran a 60 day ultimatum to "make a deal." They should have done it! Today is day 61. I told them what to do, but they just couldn't get there. Now they have, perhaps, a second chance!
President Donald Trump warned Iran that further attacks will be 'even more brutal' if it does not agree to a deal following Israel's shock strikes on its nuclear and military facilities.
Overnight, Operation Rising Lion targeted Tehran and Iran's nuclear sites in a devastating wave of assaults, escalating fears the Middle East is on the brink of all-out war.
This is a standard claim: That "tensions are escalating" and that we're "on the brink of an all-out war."
In what sense? Who would be the other parties in this "all-out war"?
The Gulf States are all engaged in war, cold or hot, against Iran. Which Middle Eastern powers are going to join the war on Iran's side, exactly?
Now, Iran's terror proxy army of the Houthis in Yemen did attempt a retalliatory missile attack against Israel.
This is not the "all-out war" I was promised.
Explosions boomed across the Iranian capital as simultaneous raids hit buildings believed to be the homes of senior military commanders.
Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu said the sophisticated operation targeted a nuclear facility in Natanz and a ballistic missile program, thanks to a secret drone base set up in Iran by Mossad.
The operation involved a barrage of explosive-laden drones and more than 200 Israeli jets.
Though the US initially sought to distance itself from the attack, Trump has now told Iran: 'There is still time to make this slaughter, with the next already planned attacks being even more brutal, come to an end.'
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Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff is reportedly hopeful that the talks will continue as scheduled despite Israel's actions overnight.
The president followed up on Truth Social saying Iran 'should have' followed his 60-day ultimatum to strike a nuclear deal.
What Israel did to Iran is incredible. As David Strom commented, this is perhaps even more audacious and incredible a covert operation than we saw in the "Grim Beeper" assassination campaign.
Israel commandos smuggled explosives-carrying drones inside Iran and set up whole "drone bases." I assume these would be in desert areas or otherwise barren land.
The reason they did this is because they wanted a first strike against Iran's air defenses and air force that came out of nowhere. There would be no long warning as Iran tracked Israeli planes from Israeli airspace. No, these drones, already in Iran and within miles of their targets, would just suddenly take flight and start hitting their targets within minutes with no opportunity to intercept them and no chance to scramble their planes off the ground.
That's the first strike -- to cripple their air defense and grant Israel complete unchallenged air supremacy over Iran.
The drones took out Iran's entire air defense grid.
And then the jets took off to start dropping the bigger payloads.
Alongside the Israeli military's strikes on nuclear and military targets, Mossad successfully pulled off a daring covert operation designed to cripple Iran's air defences and allow Israel's war planes to launch their attacks safely.
This included deploying precision-guided weapons in open areas near Iranian surface-to-air missile systems sites, and using drones launched from an undercover base near Tehran to target air defence assets, according to Israeli media reports citing security sources.
Trump did tell Netanyahu to not interfere with the talks and give the (fruitless) negotiations a chance.
Which Netanyahu did.
But the countdown was still running.
When asked at the White House about the possibility of a strike on Iran last night, Trump said: 'I don't want to say imminent, but it looks like something that could very well happen.
'It's very simple - not complicated. Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. Other than that, I want them to be successful. We'll help them be successful. We'll trade with them, we'll do whatever's necessary.
'I want to have an agreement with Iran. We're fairly close. As long as there is an agreement, I don't want [Israel] going in because I think that would blow it.
'There's a chance of massive conflict. We have a lot of American people in this area, and I said: 'We've gotta tell them to get out because something could happen soon, and I don't want to be the one who didn't give them any warning.'
'We've had very good discussions with Iran. Whether or not we get there, I can't tell you - but it'll happen soon.'
He admitted to Fox News today that he was made aware of Operation Rising Lion before it happened.
He added: 'Iran cannot have a nuclear bomb and we are hoping to get back to the negotiating table.
'We will see there are several people in leadership in Iran that will not be coming back.'
Early this morning, Iran launched a swarm of 100 drones towards Israel in retaliation to Israel's strikes.
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Israel 'should anticipate a severe punishment', adding that military forces 'won't let them go unpunished.'
He said that Israel had 'sealed for itself a bitter and painful destiny.'
Meanwhile, Iran's foreign ministry said its army would not 'hesitate to defend Iran's sovereignty with full strength and in the manner they deem appropriate'.
But Iran's drones have reportedly been intercepted by Israel's air defence systems.
Where's the all-out war, then?
This report came in a couple of hours ago: Now "massive explosions" reported in Fordow, "Iran's most heavily protected nuclear facility."
Mario Nawfal
@MarioNawfal
BREAKING: MASSIVE EXPLOSIONS REPORTED IN FORDOW - THE HEART OF IRAN'S NUCLEAR FORTRESS
2 massive explosions have rocked the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, Iran's most heavily protected nuclear facility.
Fordow isn't just another site - it's Iran's nuclear red line.
Buried deep in a mountain near Qom, the site was built to survive bunker-busting bombs and sustain uranium enrichment even under attack.
Targeting Fordow signals Israel's intent to take out Iran's nuclear program at its core - not just delay it, but dismantle it.
Hitting this facility risks crossing thresholds Tehran has long warned are untouchable.
This is no longer shadow war.
It's direct.
Source: @Tammuz_Intel
One can "harden" a nuclear site by burying it deep underground or in the mountains. But the earth won't shield you forever. Not if enemy planes are able to loiter over your location and drop munition after munition on you.
Refueling jets in mid-air is a dangerous operation. You have to fly slowly and in a perfectly straight and level line. In other words, you have to make yourself a very easy target during the refueling operation.
You would never, ever do this over enemy territory.
Not unless you had completely wiped out their air defenses and air force and could refuel in their air space with total impunity.
Many people are pointing out that China keeps buying American farmland near American military bases.
Obviously, China might be buying this land -- and almost certainly is buying this land -- to hide their own first-strike drone air forces right next to American bases.
Trump will have to act on this threat.
Mario Nawfal
@MarioNawfal
ISRAEL: BOMBS WON'T END IRAN'S NUKES - BUT MAYBE DIPLOMACY WILL (AFTER)
Israeli National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi:
"Iran's nuclear programme cannot be completely destroyed by a military campaign.
But the military campaign could create the conditions for a long-term deal, led by the United States, that will completely thwart the nuclear program."
So... blow it up now, negotiate later?