And of course Democrats have long enjoyed a big advantage in the early vote, with Republicans forced to make up the deficit on the actual (Constitution-prescribed) Election Day.

I should clarify that Republicans are turning in ballots at a higher rate, not necessarily in terms of absolute numbers. There are more Democrats in NJ than Republicans so they are probably turning in more actual ballots.

New Jersey Republicans are returning their mail-in ballots at a higher clip than Democrats in an early positive sign for GOP gubernatorial hopeful Jack Ciattarelli, as polls show a tightening race between him and Rep. Mikie Sherrill in the high-stakes race.

Garden State Republicans have so far notched an 18.61% return rate for their mail-in ballots, outpacing the Democrats' 16.55%, according to data compiled and analyzed by DecisionDeskHQ's director of political science, Michael Pruser.

GOP pollster Adam Geller, who has worked with the Ciattarelli campaign, told The Post that Republicans have historically been less inclined to vote by mail, meaning this lead in the rate of early ballot returns could be a hopeful sign.

"Clearly, it's encouraging for the Republicans right now," Geller said. "You could argue that, in addition to coming around to vote by mail, it could be a measurement of the enthusiasm for the candidate."

Brent Buchanan, the president and CEO of Cygnal polling firm, said that the early mail-in data is interesting given President Trump's growing popularity in the Garden State.

"Republicans have gotten serious about participating in early voting," Buchanan told The Post.

"Pair that with the strong shift statewide toward Trump, and you have a growing recipe for Republican wins up and down the ticket."

Kamala Harris only won New Jersey by a 6% margin in the 2024 presidential election, marking the narrowest Democratic margin in the state since 1992, according to the New Jersey Globe.

...

An internal poll conducted by Geller showed Ciattarelli with a threadbare lead, and an Emerson College Polling survey pegged Sherrill and Ciattarelli as being neck and neck.

Other polls have shown that the race is getting tighter, something that has spooked national Democrats.

Sherrill has a 3.3 percentage point advantage over her conservative counterpart, according to the latest RealClearPolitics aggregate of polling. Exactly one month ago, she had an 8.3 point lead.

For context, the RCP aggregate underestimated Ciattarelli's support by some 5 points in the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial race. Ciattarelli lost to incumbent Gov. Phil Murphy (D) by about 3 points.

The early mail-in vote means that Democrats can't pull a Torricelli Option any longer. Votes have already been cast. I don't doubt that the ultra-corrupt far-left NJ Supreme Court would try to justify cancelling the votes already cast and forcing people to vote again with a new Democrat candidate in the race, but I think the Supreme Court might actually step in and tell them they can't cancel votes already cast.

Democrats are worried:

Top Democrats are increasingly alarmed the party could lose the governor's race in traditionally blue New Jersey next month because of a series of stumbles by the Democratic nominee, U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill.

Why it matters: Both parties are investing millions in the race between Sherrill, a former Navy pilot, and Republican Jack Ciattarelli, an ex-state lawmaker -- and it's getting national attention as a preview of the 2026 midterms.

The prospect of a close election or even a loss in the Garden State has set off handwringing among Democrats.

"So much for the Dem resistance if we are struggling to even win a N.J. governorship while Trump has taken a wrecking ball to the government and Constitution," said Democratic strategist Irene Lin, who isn't working on the race.

"Sherrill has spent a fortune on polling and has no message beyond she flies helicopters and Ciattarelli loves Trump," Lin said. "How have we not learned ... that tired anti-Trump attacks aren't enough?"

Behind the scenes: Some Democrats privately say Sherrill is a better candidate on paper than in reality. They argue she's been too scripted, hasn't focused enough on high prices, and has relied too much on staff from D.C. rather than New Jersey-based operatives.

They're also concerned Ciattarelli is hustling to make inroads in Black communities that usually vote overwhelmingly for Democrats.

Sherrill initially had trouble naming "one piece" of legislation she would pass in response to a question from a CBS New York reporter, which led to Ciattarelli blasting her in an ad.

In an interview with influential radio host Charlamagne tha God in May, Sherrill -- who's in her fourth term in the House -- struggled to answer questions about her family's increased wealth in recent years.

When asked whether she made $7 million through stock trades as alleged in conservative media, she said, "I, I haven't ... I don't believe I did," and then said she'd have to check where the allegations originated.

Ciattarelli's campaign responded by launching a website: MikieMadeMillions.com.

Another spot by a pro-Ciattarelli super PAC highlighted Sherrill saying clean power is "gonna cost you an arm and a leg, but if you're a good person, you'll do it."

But the group's ad didn't say that Sherrill actually was criticizing her own party's messaging.

Bullshit.

All she was doing was criticizing the messaging -- not the policy itself. She was saying that Democrats can't sell green energy by saying it will cost you an armed and a leg, but you should sacrifice your limbs for Gaia. But she completely supports cutting off limbs for Gaia. She just wants to be more dishonest about the transaction.

A spokesperson for the Republican Governors Association, which backs the group behind the ad, declined to directly address taking Sherrill out of context and provided a statement attacking her energy record.

She's the nonbinary disabled obese Latinx queer activist who had previously been the Democrats' pointcow for outreach to, get this, college-age men.