With the New Hampshire primary now in the rearview mirror, it appears nearly certain that former President Donald Trump will be the Republican presidential nominee for a third time. While Trump has a chance to win the election in November due to Joe Biden’s spectacular incompetence, misgovernance, and tone-deaf policies, Trump could lose. The problem for him is the significant number of Republicans, conservatives, and independents who will refuse to vote for him. They won’t vote for Biden, either, but if enough of them refrain from voting for Trump, he will lose.

The “significant number” of potential Trump voters that I am referring to was quantified by a report in the Wall Street Journal: 15 percent of Republican participants in the Iowa caucus tell pollsters they will not vote for Trump; 21 percent of Republicans who voted in the New Hampshire primary say they won’t vote for Trump. The former president lost 9 percent of the Republican vote in 2020 and lost that election, so today’s higher percentage of disaffected Republicans is ominous. A Republican victory in 2024 should be a shoo-in due to Biden’s ruthless surge to the left and his vile slander of MAGA patriots as “extremists” and the current Republican Party as “a threat to this country.” However, the large number of Never Trumpers on the right may snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

The Never Trumpers I know are thoughtful, true-blue conservatives. Coming to their position has been stressful, even anguished. Let’s look at what they like and don’t like about Donald Trump. 

On the positive side of the ledger, conservatives can commend Trump for the following policy accomplishments during his presidency: 1) He appointed Supreme Court justices and other federal judges not corrupted by leftist ideological nonsense about the Constitution. 2) He reduced taxes (especially corporate taxes, which are the most irrational and destructive). 3) He reduced burdensome regulations. 4) He withdrew from the socialistic, destructive Paris Climate accord. 5) He made significant progress in regaining control of our southern border. 6) He set free the domestic oil and gas industries so that the U.S. became a net exporter of much-needed fossil fuels. 7) He took the U.S. out of the ill-conceived Iran nuclear “deal.” 8) He took a harder line against the communist regimes in Cuba and Venezuela. 9) He backed Israel in a way that led to more peaceful cooperation with at least some of Israel’s Arab neighbors.10) He practically eliminated ISIS, killing their leader and ending their control of territory. 11) He worked for needed upgrades and modernization of U.S. defense forces. 12) He reformed the Veterans Administration, giving vets greater choices and raising the percent of vets who trust the VA from 19 percent to 91 percent. 13) He defended both the First and Second Amendments vigorously. 14) He expanded funding for school choice. 15) He cut the use of federal tax dollars for abortion.

Despite those (and surely other) important accomplishments favored by conservatives, he alienated those conservatives in other ways: 1) He repeatedly breaks Ronald Reagan’s 11th commandment, “Thou shalt not speak ill of any fellow Republican.” Instead, Trump seems to relish insulting and demeaning many solidly conservative Republicans, thereby undermining party unity. 2) Trump brings into question his managerial competence by using, then discarding, his own appointees, often vilifying the very people he asked to work in his administration. 3) He repeatedly disrespects the dignity of the office of POTUS by childish, crude, and nasty rhetoric that divides the country and embarrasses even his supporters. 4) He has shown lack of leadership and cowardice by refusing to acknowledge the inescapable mathematical reality that federal entitlements must be reformed if they are to be saved and if national bankruptcy is to be averted, instead demagogically attacking Republicans (e.g., Nikki Haley) for being honest with the American people that reform is needed. 5) Most jarringly of all is the Trump personality cult. Trump has promoted the notion that only he can save America. If our country’s future did indeed depend on one person, the USA would already be doomed; but it isn’t, because there are millions of good people and thousands worthy of representing us in government. Trump is no Hitler (as the perfervid Left maliciously asserts), but his belief that only he can save America is offensive to millions of Americans.

In sum, the main problem that Never Trumpers have with Trump is not so much his policies but his personal conduct (or misconduct as they see it — and I am not referring to Trump’s court cases, a campaign of political persecution that shows how corrupt the Democratic Party has become). 

A majority of Americans want a president that their children can respect and who is worthy of emulation. They don’t want a snarling, petulant, insult-hurling, verbally incontinent bull-in-the-china-shop in the White House. 

Don’t underestimate the importance of likability. It explains why Trump’s one remaining primary opponent, Nikki Haley, fares better in polls in a potential matchup with Biden than does Trump. One political implication of this is that Haley would likely have longer coattails than Trump, thereby giving Republicans firmer control of Congress and making it easier to implement conservative policy objectives.

This is a tough time for Republicans. They will get the nominee they want. The question is: Can that nominee win the election? Without the participation of Never Trumpers, I wouldn’t bet on it.