The bulk of the electorate does not want a Trump–Biden race.

But Joe Biden is such a screw-up that his numbers are in the tank, the consequent backlash an unforeseen nostalgia for Donald Trump. Voters would rather opt for Trump’s personal chaos over Biden’s systemic chaos.

On that pick-your-(chaos)-poison, Nikki Haley’s pitch appeared spot-on.

But, after Iowa, will Haley’s surge prove illusory?

The Biden Illusion

First, Biden.

Biden’s absurd economic policies effectively raised the cost of living in every metric — prices at the grocery, gas at the pump, fast food and restaurant meals, rents and home prices, health care, interest rates, and more. His legacy was to shock the economy into an inflationary mindset now baked into the system. Everyone feels it: Instead of saying, “Ten years ago, this used to cost…,” it’s a couple of years ago, or last year. Bidenomics and his knee-jerk infatuation with unions have led to preemptive contracts anticipating inflation, thus a self-fulfilling prophecy.

The rate of inflation may subside, but the increased cost of living is permanent: The American dream, if not moribund, is on hold. And people know it!

Like Republicans in the midterms, and like Ron DeSantis, Haley failed to make the economy the No. 1 issue and own it. Feel the pain, speak to the angst. And the economy is a proxy for more than Jimmy Carter’s “malaise”: It is an unease over our country — if it’s broke, fix it. It’s more than the economy, stupid; the economy is a gateway to high anxiety about everything — immigration and migrants, crime and drugs, youth and schools, terrorism and wars, and the breakdown in polite discourse. Ironically, the uncivil Trump gets to skate, because voters yearn for peace and prosperity, not the nation and world crumbling.

One Democrat voter, herself the daughter of Mexican immigrants, is incensed about Biden’s open border, the fentanyl, the security threat, and the migrant invasion. She voted against Trump in 2016 and 2020 and never anticipated voting for him, but she told me: “I don’t care if he says crazy things. Everything’s falling apart. We need him. People are laughing at our country.” She articulates how many Democrats are disillusioned about Biden.

Haley may talk about Ukraine, but it’s no longer a major issue. In contrast, immigration is visceral, especially among Republicans, and was a major issue in Iowa. And the DeSantis line — Trump didn’t get Mexico to pay for the wall — fell flat.

Haley talks about the Trump-and-Biden deficits and the need for Social Security reform, while Trump panders, even now in New Hampshire. But Haley only hints at what is admirable — her candor and seriousness. She doesn’t close the loop between reckless fiscal policy and inflation, and she doesn’t do intelligible syllogisms. Nor does she slowly explain with closure that her Social Security reforms do not threaten anyone on Social Security or near retirement age. Her rhetoric often is hit-and-run.

This relates to Haley’s major problem in communicating. She talks rapidly in consecutive sound bites. She seems fierce and combative and thus scored early points (the surge) for strength but, in the process, sacrificed clarity/gravitas and thus staying power. She has seemed assertive and in command, yet paradoxically not presidential. How can that be?

Unless she grows in stature, she is likely to be the perennial good first date. We saw how Vivek caught on but then became perceived as a fast-talking snake oil salesman, an obnoxious, arrogant know-it-all. He was increasingly unconvincing, proclaiming Trump the greatest president ever, yet running against him. And DeSantis stupidly had based his entire campaign strategy on the implausible — that he was more Trump than Trump. At least he didn’t challenge Trump to arm-wrestling.

Early on, DeSantis needed to appeal to the general electorate, to show that he was more viable against Biden than Trump. DeSantis did not, and Biden’s collapse now means that in every major poll, Trump is not merely competitive against Biden but is leading, especially in the battleground states that will determine the election. And as long as Trump voters believe Trump can win, Haley’s much stronger lead over Biden is unpersuasive. (RELATED: DeSantis Must Stay in the Race)

DeSantis has a solid and substantive record of achievement in Florida, but his improvement in messaging may be too little, too late.

And in the most recent debate, DeSantis and Haley engaged in mutual assured destruction (MAD), as if they were novice high school debaters talking to themselves, rather than to debate judges, or to convince an audience. DeSantis opened with a piddling attack, and Haley could have responded with confidence and taken the high road. When two candidates debate by talking as quickly as they can, interrupting each other, and quibbling over which is more devious on some arcane point, the voters react with “a pox on both your houses.” Haley criticizing DeSantis for his inefficient high-spending campaign is inside baseball, just noise.

Calling your opponent a liar doesn’t work, and Haley didn’t help herself with her reflexible “go to DeSantisLies.com.” In a debate, you go for the low-hanging fruit — your opponent’s most egregious, easily fact-checked misrepresentation — and build on it for your positive, thus impeaching all that he says in the rest of the debate and establishing your credentials to lead, while also generating the optimum sound bite for news and viral pickup. They competed against each other in what seemed pettiness, each on constant defense, and, in the process, consolidated Trump’s support.

Back to Biden, and national security. What can we say about Biden prioritizing a woke-infused military over a kick-ass fighting force? Recruiting targets are unmet, and some of the best and brightest leave the service. The chain of command for war goes from the commander-in-chief directly to the secretary of defense, then to commanders. Lloyd Austin once commanded CENTCOM, which includes the Middle East. Yet, he — Department of Defense secretary — in the midst of Red Sea hostilities, goes AWOL for days, breaking the link in the chain and telling no one. And he’s not even missed. As for Biden, the impression on national security matters is that others decide and he approves, hopefully on a day when his medication is working. (RELATED: Lloyd Austin’s Dereliction of Duty: Deputy Hicks Vacations; Biden, Blinken, Sullivan Out of Loop)

The same Austin did not question — and actually implemented — Biden’s seemingly abrupt (though supposedly long “planned”) disastrous Afghanistan withdrawal. The disorderly exit, without our even securing the air base before leaving, was more than humiliating; it left billions of dollars of weapons systems for the Bad Guys. Afghanistan, combined with Biden’s mixed messages on Ukraine, failure to anticipate and preempt Vladimir Putin, and continued embrace of Iran, emboldened the Islamist axis to attack Israel. Biden’s team is only the symptom; the problem is Biden. Here is an opening for Haley, because Trump had a falling out with his own hand-picked security team — each national security adviser and each secretary of state. But neither DeSantis nor Haley seem able to articulate that while Biden is terrible, Trump is hardly optimal.

Haley’s Issue of Trump

Now about Trump.

In this race, Trump from the outset has been the consistent front-runner. Yet Democrats and their sycophants in the legacy media have pilloried and persecuted him, transforming the favored leader in the race into a kind of underdog so that he’s now the comeback kid who Americans admire. All we need after Iowa is the theme from Rocky.

Biden’s co-conspirators maneuver and enable federal, state, and local prosecutorial misconduct with trumped-up charges, or certainly overcharging, against the former president. Instead of dealing with rampant high crime, a New York district attorney charges Trump with an outside-its-jurisdiction “crime” (the resurrected hush money/supposed federal election law violation) that — if it existed in theory — is obsolete, per the U.S. Supreme Court. The New York attorney general actually campaigned on a get-Trump platform and then, with a complicit hack judge, pursues Trump, without applicable precedent, for a “crime” without a victim (defrauding a bank that, after its own due diligence, loaned Trump money and was paid in full, early).

And yet another hack, the Georgia defense attorney, appoints as special prosecutor in an historic case — against a former president of the United States — a lawyer whose relevant experience is not prosecuting felonies but sexually servicing her. And, when confronted, she tells a church gathering on Martin Luther King Jr.’s birthday that it’s all about race. And, finally, there’s the federal case pursued by Darth Vader — attack dog Jack Smith — who has a record of losing major prosecutions. (Wonder why black support is growing for Trump? Black voters are suspicious of bad cops and corrupt prosecutors.)

And if all this isn’t enough, Biden argues that Trump is a threat to democracy, while Democrat state officials keep trying to kick Trump off the ballot. This overreach doesn’t go well with the growing number of independent voters that either candidate needs for November. And if Haley wins in New Hampshire with the help of independent voters, she should not apologize — instead, she should boast, because independent voters are more numerous nationally than either party.

The Haley team was wise to allocate its newly raised funds to Iowa, yet the Haley campaign was not focused on the Iowa electorate. Trump’s support among evangelicals is largely cognitive dissonance, resisting information contrary to their predisposed support for Trump. You don’t reach these evangelical voters with ads attacking DeSantis on China. You do a positive, memorable ad — a “grabber” with Haley talking directly to the camera, with some attempt at warmth and intimacy, and in their language. Haley surely needs to move beyond her bland signature pitch that we need a new generation of leaders. It was a good start, but it’s not durable.

The typical formula hit ads that Haley and DeSantis employed against each other are generally less effective, especially in Iowa. Regardless, the bad weather resulted in low turnout, helping Trump, who also has a campaign team vastly superior to his 2016 and 2020 campaigners. The bottom line: Haley needed to keep Trump below 50 percent and to come in second herself.

DeSantis is a late bloomer who has vastly improved his personal appeal over the last couple of months. Perhaps lightning will strike. But after all the time and money invested in Iowa, he scored a weak second place, only now to face headwinds in New Hampshire. An anemic third place there could be the end for him.

Trump, gracious after his Iowa win, already is attacking Haley in New Hampshire. That effectively makes it a two-person race, and that’s good for Haley. She needs to up her game from Iowa and get some new material. Unless Haley wins in New Hampshire, or gets a very close second, the only reason for her to stay in the race is in case Trump self-destructs. Regardless, Haley needs a game changer.

Long overdue, Haley needs to expound:

1. Democrats assume Trump; keeping the White House is based on making Trump, not Biden, the issue.
2. Republicans assume Biden; regaining the White House is based on making Biden the issue.
3. If Trump runs, the election will be referendum on Trump, not Biden.
4. But I predict Biden will not be a candidate, and Trump, with his baggage, would have a tough time defeating another Democrat.
5. I am the Republican most like to defeat not only Biden but also the Democrat who runs in his place.