France and Saudi Arabia are co-chairing a United Nations conference on July 28-29 at U.N. Headquarters in New York to advance the two-state solution to the Israeli–Palestinian conflict. Titled the “High-Level International Conference for the Peaceful Settlement of the Question of Palestine and the Implementation of the Two-State Solution,” it has garnered significant attention both for its ambition and its questionable purpose. Despite the diplomatic momentum and the involvement of influential nations, there are compelling reasons to believe — based on the history — that, like its many predecessors, this conference will also fail to produce meaningful results.
The conference was initially planned for June 17-20, but was postponed due to Israel’s war against Iran, which began on June 13. It is not clear why this diplomatic initiative is taking place at a time when there is ongoing violence in the West Bank and Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza has not yet ended. The precarious environment, coupled with the inability of critical stakeholders such as Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas to travel safely around the region, jeopardizes the conference’s ability to produce actionable outcomes.
Previous U.N. resolutions and international conferences on the Israeli–Palestinian conflict have often resulted in declarations that lack enforceable mechanisms.
The United States, a key player in past negotiations, has expressed skepticism about the conference, with the Trump administration actively discouraging participation, arguing it undermines delicate negotiations and emboldens Hamas. This opposition from a major global power, combined with Israel’s firm rejection of unilateral moves toward Palestinian statehood, creates a significant hurdle. Israel’s government, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, views the conference as bypassing its concerns and has warned of reciprocal unilateral actions if European states push forward with recognition of Palestine. (RELATED: Israel’s Man at the UN Sharpens the Message Ahead of Netanyahu’s Washington Visit)
The conference’s organization seems in disorder and hastily arranged as if it is being used as just another platform for France to elbow its way into the Middle East (again).
Part of the problem is that the conference suffers from a lack of clear objectives and organizational coherence, rendering it pointless from a geopolitical and even diplomatic viewpoint.
It appears that the conference will devolve into a platform for symbolic gestures rather than substantive progress. The conference’s organization seems in disorder and hastily arranged as if it is being used as just another platform for France to elbow its way into the Middle East (again).
The conference’s goal of promoting mutual recognition and a two-state solution faces resistance due to irreconcilable positions among key parties. Israel’s current government, dominated by far-right factions, is adamantly opposed to Palestinian statehood, viewing it as a security threat and a “reward” for Hamas’s October 7, 2023, attack.
On the Palestinian side, internal divisions further complicate any chance of progress. Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas has pledged reforms, including elections within a year and the disarmament of Hamas. However, Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhri dismissed Abbas’s authority to speak on behalf of Gaza, arguing that such pledges lack legitimacy.
Furthermore, the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research has conducted extensive polling in the Palestinian territories in both Gaza and the West Bank, and the results are shocking. A majority of Palestinians believe the October 7 attack was justified, and if elections were held today, they would vote for Hamas.
The rift between the PA and Hamas undermines the prospect of a unified Palestinian position, which is essential for implementing any agreements reached at the conference.
Compounding the problem is the fact that while France and Saudi Arabia advocate for Palestinian statehood, their motivations differ. France wants to assert its diplomatic influence and develop its relationship with Arab allies, while Saudi Arabia is interested in a broader regional strategy, including potential normalization with Israel.
The conference might gain more gravitas if the United States backs it, especially since it has historically played a central role in Israeli–Palestinian negotiations, but this is unlikely in the current environment. In fact, the U.S. currently opposes the conference completely. A U.S. diplomatic cable warned against recognizing a Palestinian state at the conference, framing it as “supporting our enemies.”
It is clear that the Trump administration is fully aligned with Israel on this issue — at least for now — and it will not support France’s continued push for a Palestinian state. Most other countries will not back France fully so as not to be seen as going against Trump.
France has managed to rally some support from Arab nations like Jordan and Egypt — to be expected — but few other countries will participate in a serious manner. Some European Union and U.N. member states will participate, but the lack of consensus among major powers will limit the conference’s influence.
Even if the conference manages to produce a roadmap of sorts, numerous insurmountable practical challenges will prevent its implementation.
Hamas’s refusal to cede control in Gaza, combined with the PA’s limited legitimacy and governance challenges, makes achieving any goals difficult.
The conference could be viewed as well-intentioned, but it is in fact just another opportunity for France to pretend it has any major influence in the Middle East and to kick Israel while it is busy fighting an existential war.
This conference is a failure before it has even taken place.
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