A decade ago, Donald Trump attended the Republican primary debates among established right-wing leaders. The real estate billionaire, well known for his beauty pageants, decadent lifestyle, and playboy antics, was the least polished figure onstage. That was always the point.

Ten years later, Trump’s base mulls over the Jeffrey Epstein case and what it means for the president’s political future. Trump has made a serious effort to ignore or downplay the importance of the issue while his administration has essentially claimed there is nothing additional to see. 

While the Epstein case has stirred discomfort across the political spectrum, Trump’s base has historically shown a high tolerance for controversy and shows little sign of abandoning him now.

Trump’s widely religious base does not approve of the president’s moral failings, but they never supported him based on character in the first place. This means that personal scandals, even serious ones, tend to be absorbed rather than disqualifying, and his handling of the Epstein case is likely to follow suit. 

‘Access Hollywood’ Tape

Trump’s ability to deflect criticism over the Epstein case echoes how he’s weathered past threats to his political career.

In October 2016, just a month before the presidential election, the Washington Post released a 2005 recording from Access Hollywood in which Donald Trump boasted about groping women. The vulgar and explicit language sparked immediate condemnation, with several Republican lawmakers distancing themselves and many in the media predicting a political collapse that never came. 

Instead, Trump’s supporters largely brushed off the scandal. Some, including Trump himself, dismissed it as “locker room talk.” Others doubled down, viewing the tape’s release as a coordinated media hit job. 

Either way, Donald Trump survived what would have ended any political career and went on to win the presidency, beginning years of political influence on the right. Despite evidence of immoral character, the tape didn’t change the essential bargain Trump had struck with his voters. 

The Access Hollywood episode was the first major indicator that the political landscape was shifting regarding the significance of personal scandals. He was not held to moral standards by his base because they never thought he met them in the first place.

A Tale of Two Impeachments

Political turmoil surrounding Trump only continued as his administration progressed. In 2019, he was impeached for allegedly pressuring Ukraine to investigate Joe Biden by withholding military aid — a move Democrats called an abuse of power. However, to his base, it appeared to be another partisan attempt to undo the 2016 election. With no conviction in the Senate, support among his voters remained largely unchanged.

In 2021, following the Jan. 6 Capitol riot, Trump was impeached again, this time for “incitement of insurrection.” Yet even amid intense backlash, most Republican voters stuck with him, viewing the impeachment as political theater, not a moral reckoning. 

These impeachment efforts were anything but disastrous for Trump’s momentous movement. His supporters increasingly viewed any attempt to tank his presidency as “witch hunt” attacks on the administration and, by proxy, the average American. As with the Access Hollywood scandal, Trump walked away from these two impeachments with a virtually unscathed base. 

The exposure of these three issues was intended to force Trump into political obscurity, but his MAGA base was never sent into a tailspin in any significant way. Without the further release of Epstein files, some MAGA supporters may be reluctant to support the president’s agenda, but for many Trump supporters, the alternative to his leadership is still viewed as worse — a dynamic that has helped sustain their loyalty.

Many on the Right and Left, myself included, wish Trump would give more care and attention to the Epstein issue. Even if he does not, as seems increasingly likely, there will not be a major MAGA shakeup because his supporters are ultimately focused on the policy front. Although frustration is a justifiable response to the whole issue, it is absurd to suggest that Trump’s political influence is finished because of it. 

Why Trump

Trump will not shed his base over Epstein, despite the administration’s poor handling of it and the president’s insistence that the issue simply does not matter. He was chosen because he ran outside of traditional mores, not despite this fact. 

This does not remotely mean that MAGA is united over Trump’s handling of the Epstein case. Wherever the individual Trump supporter lands on the issue, however, it ultimately will not make Trump politically obscure or cause massive portions of his base to abandon the movement. 

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