Yogi Berra famously quipped, “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” In general, that’s true. Yet anyone familiar with the immigration debate can tell you how Democrats will react to any GOP attempt to pass or enforce laws aimed at controlling the border crisis. Who was surprised that majorities of congressional Democrats voted against the Laken Riley Act, or that blue state governors and mayors have vowed to resist the Trump administration’s effort to deport illegal aliens?
What the Democrat governors are really “resisting” is the will of the people.
That the Democrats cling to such positions after losing a major election in which immigration was a top issue seems irrational — until you look at recent population shifts.
According to a recent AP report, “Coming out of a presidential election where they lost all seven swing states Democrats are facing a demographic challenge that could reduce their path to winning the U.S. House of Representatives or the White House for the long term.”
This is not about race, however. It involves the huge number of Americans who have fled Democrat-dominated states and taken up residence in Republican-run states. The effect this will have on the reapportionment of congressional districts pursuant to the 2030 census will be profound. Recent studies conducted by various think tanks suggest that blue states may well lose as many as a dozen House seats — and the concomitant Electoral College votes.
The left-leaning Brennan Center for Justice, for example, estimates that California will lose four seats and New York will lose two. Likewise, Illinois, Minnesota, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Wisconsin will probably lose one seat each.
Which states will gain House seats and Electoral College votes? Florida and Texas are likely to pick up four seats, while Arizona, Idaho, North Carolina and Utah will gain one each. It’s no coincidence that Democrat governors in blue states which stand to lose clout in Congress and the Electoral College oppose President Trump’s immigration policies, particularly deportation. Why? The Census Bureau counts people rather than citizens. That includes “unauthorized migrants.”
The Census Bureau does not directly collect data on the legal status of the foreign born on its surveys. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Office of Immigration Statistics publishes statistics and reports based on administrative data, such as the numbers of persons obtaining legal permanent resident status, refugees and asylees, naturalizations, nonimmigrant admissions, and enforcement actions. It also provides estimates of the unauthorized immigrant population in the United States … The Census Bureau does not share any personally identifiable information with any other agency, including law enforcement.
Consequently, any state with a large population of illegal immigrants has a substantial political incentive to resist attempts by the Trump administration to deport them. California’s “unauthorized” population, for example, is about 2.6 million according to data published by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). This is why Golden State Gov. Gavin Newsom called a special session of the Democrat-dominated state legislature, which approved $50 million to “Trump-proof” California. Twenty-five million dollars was expressly dedicated to defending illegal immigrants against deportation. In other words, Newsom and the legislature plan to pad California’s census by stopping DHS from enforcing existing immigration law.
Much the same “deportation resistance” strategy is being pursued in other Democrat-run states with large populations of illegal immigrants. In Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D) brayed, “You come for my people, you come through me.” In New York, Gov. Kathy Hochul says she’s willing to work with the Trump administration.
But in New York City, where most of the state’s illegal immigrants live, Mayor Eric Adams said he would “stand up for all New Yorkers documented or undocumented.” In Arizona, a state Trump won by 5.5 percent, Democrat Gov. Katie Hobbs sparked anger by refusing to cooperate with DHS officials. The following statement from Rep. Abe Hamadeh (R-Ariz.) exemplifies the general outrage.
The Biden Administration‘s disastrous policies are dead under President Trump, but Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs is openly defying the law and the will of Arizonans by refusing to deport illegal immigrants. This isn’t leadership — it’s reckless lawlessness. The people of Arizona voted overwhelmingly for America First, not open borders and dangerous policies. If Hobbs continues to betray our state, every consequence of her actions fall squarely on her. As your Congressman, I will fight relentlessly to defend Arizona and ensure our state remains safe, while helping President Trump Make America Safe Again.
Democrats like Gov. Hobbs aren’t merely betraying the voters of their own states. Multiple surveys conducted during the past month indicate that a majority of all Americans support President Trump’s deportation policy. Last week, CNN’s Harry Enten highlighted four recent polls that confirm this reality: “When asked whether all immigrants here illegally (or ‘undocumented immigrants’ in some polls) should be deported, the majority now says yes in all polls.”
Specifically, surveys conducted by the New York Times, Marquette University, CBS News, and ABC News found that majorities ranging from 55 to 64 percent favor deportation. What the Democrat governors are really “resisting” is the will of the people.
This is not a strategy that will turn out well for the Democratic Party. The voters know President Trump well, and he made it abundantly clear during the recent campaign what his immigration policy would look like if elected. He won decisively and Americans approve of what he’s doing. In other words, “resistance” is futile.
The Democrats correctly believe they face an existential crisis, but clinging desperately to their wildly unpopular immigration positions won’t save them. Nor will gaming the 2030 census. Unless they want to go the way of the Whigs, they need to jettison the far left agenda that cost them the election and caused the mass exodus of so many voters to red states. Can they do it? Probably not.
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