Republicans are doing handsprings over Donald Trump’s polling lead versus President Biden while Democrats panic. But Trump’s advantage over Biden pales in comparison to Nikki Haley’s lead. Of course, Ron DeSantis was running strong a year ago only to slide. So, between Trump and Haley, who is best situated to face Biden?
Trump: Good News/Bad News
The good news for Trump is that he is ahead in much of the national polling and, more importantly, in the critical swing states of Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. According to the RealClearPolitics average, Trump leads Biden by 2-points. He has held a lead since September. For the first time in years, Trump’s favorability is better than Biden’s. Of course, both are far under water, but a lead is a lead.
Never before have the two frontrunners for their respective party nominations been so loathed.
There have been fewer swing state polls, but most have good news for Trump. To win in 2024, Trump needs to hold on to all his 2020 states and pick up Georgia, Arizona, and either Wisconsin or Pennsylvania. None of his 2020 states look in danger. North Carolina was the closest win at just over 2 percent, and Trump is well ahead in all polling there. As for the states Trump needs to gain, both the Morning Consult and Siena polls have Trump leading in most swing states. Morning Consult has him up in all the key pick-up states plus Nevada and Michigan. (READ MORE from Keith Naughton: Vivek, China and Russia Are Not Breaking Up)
The bad news for Trump is that his polling has tailed off. After leading Biden in 10-straight November polls, the national polls are mixed in December. His average lead has skidded from 3.5-points to 2.3-points at the time writing this piece. Trump remains massively unpopular with a RealClearPolitics average that has never been net positive. Winning for Trump involves Biden losing. Negativity by Independents and Democrats is locked in. The national mood does not have to improve much to put Trump down again.
And then there is Trump himself. As I wrote in the last column, Trump is completely undisciplined and unpredictable — great for reality TV, but not so much for a Presidential candidate. Trump’s indiscipline cost him badly in 2020 and his latest rallies offer little hope for improvement. Seventy-seven-year-old Trump sounds better than 81-year-old Biden, but that’s not saying much.
How Much of a Risk Is Haley?
Is Haley a better bet? The numbers say yes. Due to her more recent rise as the leading GOP contender to Trump, there is less polling testing her. What exists shows better numbers than anyone including Trump, Biden, DeSantis, and the potential Biden substitutes.
The RealClearPolitics average has Haley up nearly 5-points over Biden. But contained within that is a 17-point Wall Street Journal lead, 7-point HarrisX/The Messenger lead, and a 6-point Fox News lead. Haley outdoes Trump in a majority of polls, including a 13-point improvement in the Journal poll.
Haley looks even stronger after digging into the numbers. As a newcomer, Haley has lower name recognition and “hard” name ID (Note: “hard” name ID means that a voter is familiar enough to form an opinion rather than simply recognizing the name). Fewer people will plunk for someone they don’t know. The key number is Biden’s percentage and thus how many people are open to Haley. (READ MORE: Just Give Me a Number: Trump v. Biden)
In every poll, Biden’s percentage is the same or lower against her than against Trump. Fox News and HarrisX have Biden 3-points worse when facing Haley as opposed to Trump and the Journal has Biden dropping 9-points. And Haley may be underestimated. In Harris CAPS, Haley trails Biden by 2-points while Trump leads by 5-points. But those numbers are deceptive. Looking at the crosstabs reveals that Haley only scores a 68 percent to 9 percent lead among Republicans (23 percent undecided) — against Trump leading 87 percent to 7 percent. Given GOP antipathy to Biden, does anyone really think Haley would only get two-thirds of Republicans? Hardly.
Yes, some die-hard Trump voters might prefer sulking in their basements rather than vote for Haley, but that will likely be a small, cranky minority. If Haley polls just 85 percent of the GOP electorate, her percentage against Biden rises to 45 percent. In addition, Haley is leading Independents just 39 percent to 35 percent (Trump leads 45 percent to 38 percent). Again, we see Biden’s total drops moving from Trump to Haley. Haley also peels off 3-points more Democrats than Trump.
Haley’s favorable numbers also look stronger than Trump or Biden. In the Journal poll, Haley is a net positive 5-points while Trump is net negative 15-points and Biden a disastrous net negative 25-points. Harris CAPS looks better for Trump with a 1-point net positive against Biden’s 10-point net negative. But Haley looks even better at 10-points positive — one of the few American politicians in positive territory.
Haley has hit on a theme that does resonate with voters — end the chaos.
All that said, Haley represents a similar risk as Ron DeSantis, inexperience on the national stage. Haley’s recent dustup over the causes over the Civil War (yes, it was slavery, not states’ rights) is a case in point. Her fumbled answer is typical of newcomers to the kind of scrutiny you get as a serious Presidential candidate. The issue for Haley is whether she can get up to speed and perform in the clutch.
It is worth noting that these pop-quiz questions are ridiculous and serve only to impress the constantly hyperventilating media and small-minded fools. The Presidency is not a closed-book test. In the end, I doubt her Civil War gaffe will hurt much with the general public — who are (sensibly) much more concerned about inflation, insecure borders, crime and fentanyl. Questions about the Civil War and naming provinces in Ukraine should be left to Jeopardy contestants.
These kinds of gotcha gaffes are mostly forgotten by the time the general election rolls around. The real risk is whether Haley (or any rookie) makes a serious mistake or chokes in the clutch after Labor Day. Given Joe Biden’s decades of trouble in that department and Trump’s own indiscipline, it’s a good bet both of these old men would have at least as many screwups as the rookie Haley.
Give the People What They Want
Haley is an unknown, inexperienced, and not without risk, but on balance she looks like a risk worth taking in the current political environment. Never before have the two frontrunners for their respective party nominations been so loathed. Solid majorities are against nominating Trump or Biden. And it is not just policy disagreements fueling this discontent. Much of the public doubts the very fitness to perform the duties of the office.
With Trump, Republicans certainly have hope that his Administration was decent enough that voters will reject the troubled Biden Administration while swallowing Trump’s own problems. But there is little evidence Trump can make inroads into women (particularly suburban women) and younger voters — the most problematic demographics for Republicans. Naming a woman to the ticket would be thin gruel, at best.
Opinions are so hardened about Trump that swing voters are left with a simple, “who do you detest less?” choice. That is a risky environment when your opponent and his party control the levers of government. The emptying of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in 2022 gave a glimpse to the lengths the Biden Administration will go to improve their election chances. Democrats have already begun a campaign to lower interest rates.
Haley has hit on a theme that does resonate with voters — end the chaos. At 51-years-old, she presents a much stronger contrast to the octogenarian Biden than the septuagenarian Trump does. Haley presents the possibility of recovering suburban women. As for younger voters, they are not likely to vote for a Republican, but they might just sit at home without the specter of Trump scaring them to the polls
For sure, the Democratic attack-machine will turn up the smear campaign. They certainly would rather face Trump than Haley. But a public weary of politics, distrustful of the media, and government institutions is not nearly as likely to swallow their propaganda in full. For the Independents/swing voters who will decide the election, the brand-new car Haley looks a lot better than the current alternative: Trump and Biden, two rusty Edsels on a collision course.