It has been a grueling campaign to achieve essentially the status quo. Conservative historian Karol Nawrocki, informally affiliated with the Law and Justice (PiS) party that led governments from 2015 to 2023, won a dramatic victory in Poland’s presidential contest on Sunday. He edged liberal Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski by a margin of 50.89 percent to 49.11 percent. Initial exit polls suggested a narrow Trzaskowski victory, sparking celebrations in his campaign and throughout Western media, before early-morning figures confirmed the opposite result. It all occurred in the immediate aftermath of the shameless power-grab in nearby Romania.

Nawrocki replaces two-term President Andrzej Duda as a counterweight to the parliamentary coalition of leftists, liberals, and centrists under Prime Minister Donald Tusk. Though the presidential role has numerous ceremonial aspects, it carries crucial legislative veto power. Duda has been busy during the last two years, as the Tusk government has explored both legislative and outright lawless avenues for reshaping Polish society. The unprecedented arrest of two government political opponents in Duda’s Presidential Palace will be remembered just as vividly as the likable outgoing president’s vetoes and state visits. (RELATED: Poland Continues to Arrest Political Opponents)

While the government power dynamics remain largely the same, the status quo doesn’t quite define what has occurred in Poland. After all, Polish conservatives have been in the doldrums since their parliamentary defeat in late 2023.

Despite the Tusk government’s many overreaches, public sentiment hasn’t appreciably shifted. Trzaskowski regularly led polls over the last year, often by comfortable margins. This is the first concrete victory for the Polish Right since the agony of 2023 — and a critical one. Trzaskowski’s victory and Tusk’s parliamentary carte blanche were supposed to be foregone conclusions. PiS leader and former Prime Minister Jarosław Kaczyński promoted the outcome as “a significant advantage for us, given their media and financial advantage and the methods they used — despite everything, we won.”

Tusk will now be forced to reshuffle his government with an eye to the scheduled 2027 parliamentary elections. Minister of Justice Adam Bodnar, who has pursued political opponents with activist zeal, and Minister of National Education Barbara Nowacka, who has sought to minimize Catholic religious instruction in schools, reportedly will exit the government. Tusk’s Civic Coalition will seek to shore up leftist and centrist coalition partners, who insist they are not to blame for Trzaskowski’s defeat, to avoid snap elections. The prime minister says he has no intention to resign. (RELATED: Poland Sees Surge in Anti-Catholic Sentiment)

The razor-thin result can hardly be considered a mandate. It simply proves how divided Polish society remains. PiS and other conservative forces still struggle among women, the thriving urban managerial class, and the “Recovered Territories” of the North and West that were part of Germany before 1945.

Nonetheless, Nawrocki’s advantage among young voters, as well as the strength of populist-right parties in the first round, portend well for the short-term future (though PiS has demonstrated little ability to collaborate with its right-wing rivals to date). In post-election meetings, Tusk reportedly lamented that there are too many of them (right-wing voters). Notably, the first-round tallies of three right-wing candidates represented an absolute majority.

All the electoral speculation is likely just that. Tusk is an experienced political operator, and 2027 is a long way in the future. Dr. Nawrocki was not even on the radar during the last major elections in 2023.

The domestic legislative implications, however, are far less opaque. The government’s insistence on pro-abortion legislation will need to be tabled, as a legislative supermajority will be unattainable. The pro-life significance of the Nawrocki victory cannot be overstated, as the government’s next attempt at pro-abortion legislation loomed after the elections. The same can be said for controversial measures on “hate speech” and same-sex unions. The second half of the parliamentary term will likely prioritize policies that are broadly popular and seek to paint the opposition as obstructionist, with 2027 in focus.

Migration has become a contentious issue in Polish politics, and the government camp sought to keep quiet on this issue until after a presumed Trzaskowski victory. According to Le Monde, Brussels kept the pressure off Poland with the same aim in mind. Now the inevitable battle over EU migrant-relocation schemes will be loud and contentious. Neither President Nawrocki nor an anti-migration populace will be willing to accept these measures quietly. Brussels had also hoped a Trzaskowski presidency would allow Warsaw to enact legal “reforms” to erase the eight years of PiS governance. That will now require the coercion that has become an EU hallmark. (RELATED: Is Poland the Next Victim of Mass Migration?)

A day after the election, German EU parliamentarian Moritz Körner offered a preview when he insisted:

The vote of confidence that Poland received after the parliamentary elections has been exhausted. The grace period for Poland’s rule of law problems is over. The Polish government must now pass all laws that restore the rule of law in Poland. If the newly elected president uses his veto to boycott the necessary rule of law reforms, the EU must again freeze the funds to Poland. Ursula von der Leyen must make it clear that if the Poles want a continuation of the boycott policy, they will receive a continuation of the sanctions. The blame for this will then lie with the president.

Forces across the Atlantic will complicate the maneuvers of von der Leyen and company. President Trump took the unusual step of meeting with then-candidate Nawrocki last month. The candidate also met with Secretary of State Marco Rubio and other administration officials. Soon thereafter, the GOP House Judiciary Committee delegation issued a letter condemning the Tusk government’s legal abuses. President Trump and President-elect Nawrocki exchanged pleasantries this week. Washington’s message on the significance of Poland is clear.

Government forces in Warsaw, Brussels, and Berlin envisioned a summer of triumphant liberal legislation. Instead, it will be a period of maneuvering that will demonstrate just which laws and norms the liberal order is willing to trample.

Michael O’Shea is an American-Polish writer and translator. He is a Danube Institute visiting international fellow.

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