


The U.S. media hasn’t paid much attention to the Russian war to conquer Ukraine since the Hamas terrorists attacked Israel on October 7. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky wanted to visit Israel very soon after the October 7 attacks, but Israelis turned him down because it was a poorly-thought attempt to grab attention. He may soon visit Israel at its invitation.
There isn’t much to say about progress in the war because there isn’t much, and there’s a political stalemate about Ukraine aid in Washington. Despite Ukraine’s much-advertised spring counteroffensive (which didn’t begin until summer had almost arrived) hasn’t made much progress, nor has the Russian counter-counter-offensive that followed. (READ MORE from Jed Babbin: Israel Fights, Too Many Democrats Rage)
That’s not only this writer’s opinion. In a November 1st interview with The Economist, Ukraine’s commander-in-chief, General Valery Zaluzhny, said the war reminded him of World War One: “Just like in the First World War we have reached the level of technology that puts us into a stalemate,” he said. Zaluzhny added that it would take a massive technological leap to break the deadlock but, “There will most likely be no deep and beautiful breakthrough.”
What Zaluzhny meant is that both sides are using equivalent technology, a reason World War One was stalemated for years in trench warfare. It’s not technology that has stalled the Ukraine war. It’s because neither side can bring about the defeat of the other.
To refresh our memories, Russia launched a war of conquest against Ukraine in February 2022. The Russians have, ever since, bombed hospitals and schools, killed civilians and generally adopted a policy of committing war crimes whenever convenient.
The Russians never captured Ukraine’s capital city, Kyiv. They have, at times, captured about twenty percent of Ukrainian territory and still hold about eighteen percent of it. (That doesn’t include the Crimean Peninsula which Russian President Putin seized in 2014 and promptly annexed to the Russian Federation.)
Gen. Zaluzhny and President Zelensky figured that the June counteroffensive could bleed Russia into some sort of settlement. But as Zaluzhny told The Economist, “That was my mistake. Russia has lost at least 150,000 dead. In any other country such casualties would have stopped the war.” What he didn’t mention is that Ukraine has probably lost around 100,000 killed, not counting civilian casualties, and probably double that number wounded.
Vladimir Putin is prepared to absorb those losses without pause in his war.
Putin is, as I’ve written elsewhere, a “Duginist.” Alexander Dugin has been called “Putin’s philosopher.” In his major work, The Foundation of Geopolitics, Dugin wrote that the conquest of Ukraine is the essential step toward restoring a Russian empire. Without Ukraine, he wrote — and Putin evidently believes — it is impossible to restore Russia to its former glory.
Hence Putin’s dedication to the conquest of Ukraine. He won’t stop trying while he’s in power.
As Gen. Zaluzhny said, the war is stalemated. Russia has several advantages in the war beginning with its larger population (over 147 million versus Ukraine’s 37 million) to conscript soldiers from. Russia can win this war of attrition despite the fact that U.S. and several of our NATO allies have sent arms and munitions to Ukraine. And on our side of the Atlantic, the stalemate is political.
President Biden sent a $100 billion aid bill to congress that contained $60 billion in more aid to Ukraine, $14 billion to Israel, and another $20 billion in money for “border security” which will not secure our border. House Speaker Mike Johnson has split Biden’s bill, separating aid for Israel and has passed the Israel aid bill through the House.
Johnson’s bill is DOA in the Senate. In a bluff that fooled no one, Biden said that he’d veto a bill that only contained the Israel aid. (Look for the Democrats to try to include the Ukraine aid and border money in the forthcoming Continuing Resolution that will fund the government for a year.)
Johnson was right to split off the Israel aid for several reasons, the most important of which is that several of his Republicans don’t want to give Ukraine more aid.
The House Republicans’ reasoning isn’t at all clear. Are they giving in to an isolationist urge like America had in the 1930s? Do they want to stop the aid or just ensure that the money isn’t falling into the wrong hands?
Sen. Josh Hawley said last week that we should not give Ukraine more aid unless we can ensure that the money isn’t lining the wrong pockets. (It’s not too far-fetched to wonder if some of the money isn’t being kicked back to Biden’s family, to Zelensky, or some of Zelensky’s cronies.) (RELATED: Wars Raise Two More Critical Issues)
Hawley has it right, but he has no proposal to stop the aid getting into the wrong hands. As I have written here and elsewhere, we need to establish a special inspector general — like the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, “SIGAR” — and require the Ukrainian government’s cooperation in its investigation. That way we could track the money we’re giving Ukraine and determine if it’s being raked off for corrupt purposes.
Biden doesn’t want to do that, but unless House and Senate Republicans make further Ukraine aid contingent on establishing a SIGAR-like IG, we have no way to assure ourselves that the money is going where it’s intended. It would be simple for them to put the creation of such an IG into the Ukraine aid legislation.
Biden is apparently comfortable with the stalemates on both sides of the Atlantic. As usual, he’d rather have an issue to campaign on than a solution. Biden’s demand for border security money is a sham. He only intends that money to go to process more illegal aliens and let them loose into the U.S.
There is no apparent solution to either part of the stalemate. Biden won’t compromise and neither should Johnson. Ukraine’s military is bogged down and can’t do more than it has to break the Russian hold on its territory. It’s up to House and Senate Republicans to force Biden’s hand by agreeing to further Ukraine aid contingent on the establishment of a special inspector general and refusing Biden’s border money.
Let’s get on with it.