As Vladimir Putin talked to Tucker Carlson about the “Russian soul” last week, his troops were breaking through Ukrainian defenses in a key sector of the besieged city of Avdiivka, which has become the latest pivotal battle of the war.  When Putin agreed to give the interview seen by millions around the world, he may have known that his intelligence services were dusting off Soviet era maps  showing  a pipeline close to  Russian positions, through which “Spetnaz” could crawl into the city center.

A specially selected “storm” unit composed of Wagner group veterans, now incorporated into the regular Russian army, managed to sneak up behind some Ukrainian positions and catch them by surprise. Their collapse allowed an advance into  the destroyed city neighborhood by Russian troops whose siege has lasted four months, at a cost of over 20,000 casualties, 300 main battle tanks, and thousands more combat vehicles and artillery pieces.

Ukraine’s highly pressured position in Avdiivka was causing simmering disagreements between president Volodymir Zelensky and elements of his military high command arguing for a tactical withdrawal to more defensible fortified lines 16 miles west of the city. The Russian breakthrough brought matters to a head and Zelensky  replaced the chief of his armed forces, General Valery Zalushny, with the more aggressive general Oleksandr Syrsky, signaling his continued refusal to concede territory to Russia — even as Putin was telling Tucker that he would negotiate peace once “Russian objectives are met.”

With the capture of Avdiivka, Russia can solidify its central front and  move towards the industrial heartland of the Donbass, Kromatorsk, an engineering hub with a population of  over 100,000, steel plants, iron mines, and gas fields. It would be Russia’s biggest strategic prize since launching its invasion two years ago and may be central in any future peace discussions. (READ MORE from Martin Arostegui: Putin’s March to the Red Sea)

Upon taking his new command, Syrsky  committed  key  reserves to reinforce positions in Avdiivka including the crack 3^rd Brigade freshly trained in American M1A1 Abrams tanks which started arriving  last October. Any relief effort would involve sharp armored thrusts to counter Russia’s pincer movement to surround the city from the north and south, in order to secure its western supply route that Russian forces have almost cut off in recent days.

It was  Syrsky’s strategy when he directed the defense of Bahamut last winter and Russia will probably fall back  on the attritional tactics its so far used to  capture cities with its numerically superior army;  flooding in troops from all directions to overwhelm the defenders.

Ukraine has  advantages it lacked last year. It’s much enhanced armored capabilities — including the Abrams, British Challenger tanks, German Leopards, as well as hundreds of U.S. Bradley fighting vehicles and German Marders that keep arriving in steady numbers — more than match refurbished vintage T-55 and T62s with which Russia is largely replacing  modern T-72s, T-80s, and T-90s being destroyed in great numbers.

Ukraine has  vastly increased its drone capabilities with domestic mass production of copies of Iranian Shahed 136 and Russian Lancet FPVs, that they use with lethal effect against artillery positions. Defense contractors are even working on  jet powered loitering munitions to throw against strategic targets inside of Russia, such as  oil and gas refineries  hit in the most recent attacks.

Ukraine has also greatly expanded its electronic warfare capabilities, significantly catching up to Russia in this critical area. According to Ukrainian defense spokesmen, EW equipment is now being distributed to field units down to company level to disrupt swarms of enemy drones by interfering with the signals from their operators.

Zelensky and his newly appointed high command may be hoping to hold off the Russians long enough for the 40 to 60 American F-16s, committed by European NATO allies, to get in theatre and give Ukraine some tactical air superiority to push the Russians back from Avdiivka and possibly rout their 50,000 strong force concentrated there. Gen. Syrsky  routed the Russian invasion force of 100,000 trying to take Kyiv two years ago. (READ MORE: Zelensky Responds to Putin’s Missile War)

Russia may even be planning for such a worst case scenario. It’s erected a barrier of over 2000 freight wagons along a 30 mile stretch of railroad east of the Avdiivka called “ Tsar Train” which analysts believe is intended as a barricade against Ukrainian forces that may pursue a retreating army into occupied lands.

Pictures of F-16s with Ukranian markings are already circulating on social media but the planes are probably still  in Romania or other countries where pilots are undergoing training. Their highly complex  instruction has a way to go yet, according to experts like retired British air vice marshal Sean Bell who told Times Radio that it will be “several months to a year” before the pilots are combat ready.

Zelensky is taking a huge gamble in Avdiivka. Success much depends on whether a previously rejected $62 billion military aid package that was finally approved by the US Senate this week makes it past the House of Representatives where Republican Speaker Mike Johnson says it’s “dead on arrival.”

Despite pledging to defend Ukraine at any cost, the Biden administration refuses to adopt measures to shut the U.S. border with Mexico proposed by Republicans who condition new aid for Zelensky on stemming the migrant “invasion” that’s a far bigger security concern for most Americans than Ukraine, according to  polls.

The European Union is trying to fill the void created by the cut throat power struggles between globalist democrats and isolationist republicans. After approving $55 billion in Ukraine aid last week, top EU officials have announced plans to step up supplies of 155 mm artillery shells of which Ukraine is critically short.

Over 500,000 are being delivered  next month , according to EU Commission president Ursula Von Der Leyen. This falls way short of the one million artillery rounds sent to Russia by North Korea, but Europe’s chief commissioner says that EU countries will “coordinate efforts to draw from existing stocks and increase ammunition production” for further deliveries.

Norway is also replenishing missiles for Ukraine’s NASAM medium range air defense systems which could run out by next month, according to the Pentagon. This other critical shortage could give Russia the window it needs to unleash its hypersonic missiles such as the X-22 also known as Kh-22, with speeds of up to 4,000 kph for a blitz that could dwarf anything suffered by Ukraine so far. (READ MORE: Russia Mounts Its Comeback)

“It’s impossible for Russia not to win” Putin told Tucker in their two hour interview and he could be proved right in Avdiivka. A growing sense of urgency is palpable in Europe where the prospect of a Russian victory  is finally forcing governments to step up military preparedness as Donald Trump pushed them to do when he was president over scathing criticism from the liberal media and bureaucratic pundits.

Europe’s military shortcomings and the currently fractured leadership in Washington make a negotiated solution to the war in Ukraine seem inevitable at this point. The battle for Avdiivka may well decide whether Putin deals from a position of strength or from behind his “Tsar Train.”