George Washington’s first message to Congress contained the words, “To be prepared for war is one of the most effectual means of preserving peace.” Though he didn’t mention the word, he was speaking of the concept of deterrence.
Deterrence is the strategy that promises, if one nation is attacked by another, the aggressor will suffer military action at a level it cannot withstand. That strategy served us well during the Cold War because neither the U.S. nor the Soviet Union wanted a nuclear war between them which would have caused unimaginable destruction of people and infrastructure.
Modern enemies are less susceptible of deterrence for several reasons, principally because decades of U.S. governments haven’t credibly threatened any enemy. President Trump is learning about deterrence, fortunately at little cost to the United States.
The wars between Israel and the Arab States that surround it — Israel’s main Israeli enemy now being Iran — and the India-Pakistani war are similar but not really alike.
Both wars were produced by the outcome of World War Two. When Israel declared its independence in 1948 the Arab states surrounding it declared war against it. A year earlier, when the British abandoned India, Pakistan was partitioned dividing the two between Hindu and Muslim nations. India then seized the area known as Kashmir which borders the two — a predominantly Muslim area — and the two nations promptly went to war over it.
Israel was created by UN resolutions as a Jewish state separate and apart from the Arab nations. India, a Hindu state, was separate from Pakistan, a Muslim nation.
Last week, President Trump engineered a cease-fire between India and Pakistan both of which have nuclear weapons. For the past several weeks they had engaged in the most serious fighting since 2019 when border skirmishes seemed to be drifting into a serious war. What kicked off the most recent fighting was an attack by Kashmiri terrorists that killed 26 tourists in Kashmir.
The fact that Mr. Trump was able to obtain a cease-fire agreement between India and Pakistan is a lesson in deterrence. That lesson is twofold: nuclear arms are a deterrent between rational powers and that the dispute between them is territorial, not religious.
The president obtained a cease-fire agreement with the Houthis in Yemen which, inexplicably, doesn’t include Israel. The cease-fire apparently includes only Yemeni attacks on Red Sea shipping and U.S. naval forces in the area. A new attack on Israel by a Yemeni missile which occurred after the supposed cease-fire is a lesson in deterrence. The Houthis aren’t deterred by Israel because they are backed by Iran.
Also inexplicably, the president dropped the demand that Saudi Arabia recognize Israel in exchange for U.S. cooperation on civilian nuclear power. That shoots down any Saudi reason for joining in Mr. Trump’s Abraham Accords.
The president has been unable, so far, to obtain a cease-fire in the Gaza Strip because Hamas — which killed about 1,200 Israelis and some 38 U.S. citizens on October 7, 2023 and took more than 240 hostages — is another lesson in deterrence.
That lesson is the fact that some nations aren’t susceptible to deterrence, including Iran, which is not a rational state in Western terms.
Neither India nor Pakistan wanted a war that would escalate to a nuclear exchange. Their skirmishes after the terrorist attack on civilians seemed to be escalating with artillery barrages and the downing of a Pakistani AWACs-like aircraft by Indian air forces. India seemed on the verge of obtaining air superiority which could have led them to open war with Pakistan.
Pakistan’s population is about 96 percent Muslim while India’s is about 80 percent Hindu and about 14 percent Muslim.
Their clashes over Kashmir — which both nations claim — is inherently a war over territory, not religion. The Hamas war on Israel is religiously-based and thus much harder to end far less deter.
Neither war will end. They are both forever wars but the differences between them — one about territory and one about religion — is the key.
In 1648 Europe ended its internecine wars over the differences in Christianity with the Treaty of Westphalia, which recognized separate nationalities and religious rights. Wars continued in Europe — e.g., the Napoleonic Wars and World War One — but they were over territorial ambitions, not religion. By contrast, World War Two — which was based on ideology and propelled by the quasi-religious beliefs in Germany’s racial superiority and Japanese Shintoism — had to be fought to the end.
In the aftermath of World War Two another factor came into play. The enormous wealth of Islamic states made them a major player in world events. Islam is far less susceptible to deterrence because it compels its believers to conquest.
The war over Kashmir will go on, propelled by Muslim terrorism as well as Pakistan’s interest in taking Kashmir. But the two adversaries seem to be able to settle their differences because both are rational in Western terms: neither wants a nuclear war.
The war between Israel and Hamas, Hizballah, and the Houthis is propelled by Iran. It won’t end even with cease-fire agreements. This war is vastly more dangerous to us and to Europe because Iran, if it obtains nuclear weapons, will not be governed by rationality as India and Pakistan are, at least at this point. Iran’s religious motivation cannot abide the existence of Israel. As long as the ayatollahs rule Iran, the war won’t end.
The Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping and U.S. naval vessels are ended, for a time, by the cease-fire agreement Trump obtained. The American air attacks on the Houthis were an effective deterrent against them at least until Iran can rearm them. But even the Israeli destruction of the international airport in Sana’a wasn’t enough to prevent the post-agreement attack by a missile the Houthis fired at Israel.
Iran cannot be deterred for long because of its religious motivation to destroy Israel. Why, then, is Mr. Trump trying to obtain another nuclear weapons deal with Iran?
Deterrence works when the enemy is certain that its destruction will be brought about by an attack. But religious motivation can overcome deterrence. Ours is failing because most of our enemies — Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea — are not sure we will strike back beyond their ability to survive, if at all.
Credibility of deterrence means credibility in military power. As Washington said, to ensure peace we need to prepare for war and so do our allies. Israel, in a unique position, has been suffering war since its creation. A nation cannot be at war forever. That means the survival of Israel or the ayatollahs’ regime in Iran, which are mutually exclusive.
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