Incumbent Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s recent electoral victory ensures that Sweden will, for now, continue to remain outside of NATO. With the U.S. funding over 16 percent of the alliance’s budget, and an ongoing war in Ukraine that could escalate into NATO territory, this development holds significant implications for the United States.
According to the Washington Post, Sweden applied to the alliance, along with Finland, following Russia’s renewed invasion of Ukraine. While initially resisting the Finns’ bid, Turkey later approved it, and, on April 4, Finland joined NATO. Sweden, however, remains sidelined.
One of the Turks’ largest disagreements with Sweden involves the Kurds. An ethnic group native to Turkey’s southeastern border region, the Kurds have fought for greater autonomy for decades. One organization deeply involved in the movement is the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK. Erdoğan, who views the party as a terrorist organization, wants Stockholm to crack down on those supporting the Kurdish cause among Sweden’s large refugee community.
The CIA confirms that the PKK is engaged in terrorist activity, but the Kurds’ recent history of helping American troops in the war on terror makes the issue complex.
A study by the Atlantic Council states that, in the 2010s, another Kurdish group — known as the YPG, or People’s Protection Units — participated in a U.S.-led coalition against the Islamic state group. Though distinct, the YPG is connected to the PKK, and the Turkish government does not differentiate between the two. Washington Post analysts Niclas Rolander and Ott Ummelas say that these Kurdish concerns have led Erdoğan to request the extradition of over 100 refugees believed to be militants before he’ll approve Sweden’s NATO application.
As the U.S. government believes Sweden will strengthen and unify the alliance, it hopes for a quick resolution to the conflict.
In a combined press conference with Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said: “I think it’s to Türkiye’s credit that it’s been able to focus all of the Alliance on some of these concerns, but it’s to Sweden’s credit … that they’ve taken concrete action to address those concerns. From the perspective of the United States, the time is now to finalize Sweden’s accession.”
Recent Russian aggression lends support to the secretary’s statements. In 2007, a Russian-based cyberattack forced Estonia to block all foreign internet traffic. A year later, troops backed by the Kremlin invaded Georgia, and, in 2014, Russia annexed Crimea, followed by a full invasion in 2022.
Halting such Russian aggression is a raison d’être for NATO, which lends credence to calls for Swedish accession. A 32nd ally close to Russia would strengthen the alliance’s strategic position.
To the Kremlin, however, extending NATO’s border would only increase geopolitical tension in Europe.
Before Finland joined, the size of the Russian–NATO border approximated that of the one between the U.S. and Mexico border, excluding Texas. That border has now doubled. Comparing that expansion to the American reaction when Fidel Castro turned one Caribbean island into an ally of Moscow, letting Sweden join NATO could be a provocative act. Indeed, Russia would be left as the only non-NATO nation with access to the Baltic Sea.
President Vladimir Putin warned against NATO military buildup in Scandinavia, stating: “If Finland and Sweden wish to, they can join. That’s up to them.… [But] if military contingents and military infrastructure were deployed there, we would be obliged to respond symmetrically.”
Halfway through earning a master’s in national security at the Institute of World Politics, Mason Stauffer is part of The American Spectator’s 2023 intern class. When he isn’t preparing for his future career in the national security sector, Mason can usually be found hiking through the National Park System or playing his trumpet.