A sword of Damocles hangs over the heads of hundreds of thousands of workers and companies in the most famous sectors of Made in Italy. The announced entry into force of tariffs at 15 percent for goods exported to the United States is impairing the European economy, the world of Italian food and wine in particular. These two iconic sectors of Italy’s economy have entered into despondency.
Along with duties, the possible consequent ‘explosion’ of another insidious threat is making its way. “There is a risk that the market of Tuscan fakes will proliferate.”
For agribusiness, the U.S. is the second largest export destination, behind only Germany. In 2024, sales to the U.S. amounted to 7.7 billion euros, 14 percent of total Italian exports.
“It seems more like a surrender than an agreement,” says the Italian Farmers’ Confederation. “We are drawing up a list of zero-duty products to present to the government and the EU because wine and oil cannot withstand these increases,” announces Simone Castelli, president of the Coldiretti farmers’ association.
For Italian wine, the U.S. market is worth about 2 billion euros, or 24 percent of the value of total exports, almost half of European wine exports to the U.S., which are worth about 5 billion euros annually.
“We estimate the damage to our businesses to be around €317 million over the next 12 months, while for our overseas trading partners, the loss of earnings will reach almost $1.7 billion” notes Lamberto Frescobaldi, president of the Italian Wine Union. “The wealth generated by a bottle of wine in Italy is worth one dollar, while in the U.S. it is worth 4.3 dollars, given the many steps involved in the supply chain. We tried to explain this, but they didn’t listen to us.”
The United States is the second final destination. In particular for wines and IGP oil (protected geographical indication, ed.) they represent the first destination.
Among the most affected regions is Tuscany. At the national level, according to estimates by the Association for the Development of Industry in Southern Italy (Svimez) to a reduction in GDP of 6.3 billion euros, or -0.3 percen, and a decrease in exports that would reach 8.6 billion, or a -14 percent, These figures would also be accompanied by very negative numbers for the labor market: in fact, a decline in labor units is estimated at 103,892, or -0.4 percent. For Tuscany alone, Svimez fears a 13 percent drop in exports and the loss of more than 17,000 labor units (jobs).
There is discontent among Tuscan producers. “The U.S. market accounts for 50 percent of our exports, and it will not be easy to shift production to other countries,” explains Carlo Santarelli of the Manciano Social Cooperative in Maremma, which produces Pecorino Toscano IGP cheese. “There will be repercussions for both us and American buyers: our pecorino cheese could increase in price from $3-4 to $10.”
“Tariffs are a big problem,” admits Matteo Mugelli of Torre Bianca, which produces oil in San Casciano in Val di Pesa, near Florence. “My oil in the U.S. will go from $35-40 per kilo to $50-55, reducing the number of buyers. For this reason, I am also focusing on other markets.”
“We export 35-40 percent of our turnover to the U.S.,“ explains Gianmarco Laviola, CEO of the giant Salov, known in the U.S. as Filippo Berio, which produces over 100 million liters of oil every year, ”and we also have about 40 employees in the U.S.. If we add tariffs to the devaluation of the dollar, the product arrives with a surcharge of about 30 percent. We are concerned.”
“Between private individuals and importers, I send about 90 percent of my exports to the U.S.,” comments Paolo Baldini of the Altiero farm in Chianti, “and there has already been a significant drop in sales due to tariffs. We are looking for a solution, but the problem is that things could change again.”
Along with duties, the possible consequent ‘explosion’ of another insidious threat is making its way. “There is a risk that the market of Tuscan fakes will proliferate,” comments Stefania Saccardi, vice-president of the Tuscany region with responsibility for the agri-food sector, “that is, those products that ape ours. The famous Tuscany sounding names, with products made in the USA that resemble, by name, those from Tuscany. Products that mimic those from Tuscany. So there is a risk that the latter, because of duties, could take a slice of our market.”
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