“Man cannot control the current of events,” said Germany’s 19th-century Chancellor Otto von Bismarck, “he can only float with them and steer.” Bismarck had what geopolitical theorist Halford Mackinder thought was the most important quality of a statesman: “Insight into the minds of other nations than his own.” Historian A.J.P. Taylor said Bismarck’s greatest legacy was realpolitik. German-American historian Hajo Holborn wrote that he had an “uncanny genius for making conflicting state interests serve the stability of peace.” Former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger lauded Bismarck’s possession of “an extraordinary sense of proportion which turned power into an instrument of self-restraint” and his “ability to exploit every available option without the constraint of ideology.”

The Biden administration has left Donald Trump with a world of crises to deal with in his second term. War continues to rage in Ukraine. The much-touted Middle East ceasefire is falling apart. China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea have moved closer together in opposition to the United States. China’s relative power in the Indo-Pacific has increased vis-à-vis the United States and its allies.
The humiliation of Afghanistan and Biden’s inability to deter Russia from invading Ukraine have undermined America’s deterrent posture globally. The Monroe Doctrine is withering on the vine in the face of China’s Belt and Road Initiative and America’s unimpressive response to China’s inroads in Latin America. China’s aggressive moves in the South China Sea have become normalized. (READ MORE: Rejuvenating the Monroe Doctrine)
Trump’s incoming national security team better start reading up on Bismarck. They could start with A.J.P. Taylor’s Bismarck: The Man and the Statesman, then follow that up with Taylor’s chapters on Bismarck in his masterful The Struggle for Mastery in Europe: 1848-1918, Jonathan Steinberg’s Bismarck: A Life, Kissinger’s chapter on Bismarck in Diplomacy, Holborn’s chapters on Bismar...