The Trump administration’s brokering of peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan marks the administration’s 11th such deal (the previous ones being between Cambodia and Thailand, Israel and Iran, Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, India and Pakistan, Egypt and Ethiopia, and in the first Trump administration, between Serbia and Kosovo, and the Abraham Accords between UAE and Israel, Bahrain and Israel, Morocco and Israel and Sudan and Israel).

The value of the Armenian-Azerbaijan agreement to U.S. interests cannot be overstated. The deal will bring access to American trade deals in the South Caucus. Specifically, the agreement establishes the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity,” which will connect Azerbaijan’s two land masses as well as Armenia, and with it, Armenia will partner with the U.S. and U.S. companies to economically develop the corridor for at least 99 years. Additionally, the U.S. will lift restrictions on defense cooperation between the US and Azerbaijan.

The Trump administration should capitalize on its momentum and expand the Abraham Accords. The following are real possibilities:

Azerbaijan

The Trump administration could leverage the recent Azerbaijan-Armenia deal to bring Azerbaijan into the Abraham Accords. Azerbaijan and Israel have had strong relations for several years.

In 2012, Azerbaijan allegedly assisted the Mossad in fomenting anti-regime unrest in Iran, and that same year reports indicated that Israel had access to an Azerbaijani air base for attacks on Iran’s nuclear program.

From 2016-2020, Azerbaijan imported almost 70 percent of its total arms from Israel, and Israel is currently the number one importer of Azerbaijani oil. Azerbaijan’s ascension into the Abraham Accords could grant the U.S. more access to Azerbaijan’s natural resources, including oil, as well as more defense contracts, and would project U.S. power to balance against the Iranian threat in the region.

Additionally, in a recent report, Azerbaijan has moderated its textbooks towards Israel, a sign of increasing friendliness towards the Jewish State. (This follows a similar trend of textbook moderation seen in Abraham Accords signatories Morocco and Saudi Arabia, and stands in contrast to the more bigoted textbooks of Jordan, the Palestinian Authority, and Qatar.)

Somaliland

Somaliland has offered the Trump administration an American base in Berbera in exchange for formal recognition of Somaliland as an independent country. A base in Berbera would offer the United States a base in the Gulf of Aden and near the entry to the Red Sea, and as one analyst put it, would allow the United States to project power “across east Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, and the Indian Ocean.” Such a base could also allow the U.S. to further check Chinese interests in Africa, including the Chinese military base in Djibouti, as well as Iranian influence in the region.

Somaliland also has great mineral wealth, including lithium that could benefit the United States, and would be a strategic ally in counterterrorism against al-Shabaab. In turn, the United States could recognize Somalia’s Isaaq Genocide against hundreds of thousands of people in Somaliland between 1960 and 1991. (RELATED: Ilhan Omar’s Father Served a Communist-Islamist Regime Before Becoming a Refugee in Minnesota)

Somaliland could also potentially take Gazan refugees in a larger deal where Somaliland would be brought into the Abraham Accords. While that remains a possibility, Somaliland’s foreign minister has indicated that greater diplomatic recognition of Somaliland would have to occur first: “We are open to discussion on any matter, but we do not want to speculate on matters that have not yet been discussed. All countries that are interested in discussing certain issues with us must first establish working relations with us and open diplomatic missions in Somaliland.”

Indonesia

As the largest Muslim majority state by population and its proximity to China and the CCP’s ambitions in the South China Sea, Indonesia would also be a great addition to the Abraham Accords. And the timing is perfect right now, as the Trump administration can leverage momentum gained with the administration’s recent trade agreement with Indonesia, including in energy, agriculture, and aviation, to bring Indonesia into the Accords.

Additionally, in May, Indonesia’s president stated that his country could potentially recognize Israel. According to a new report, in a possible sign of increased friendliness, Indonesia has also recently moderated its textbooks, specifically regarding stereotypes of Jews, and its removal of bias towards the Palestinians in the portrayal of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The Trump administration was reportedly close to bringing Indonesia into the Abraham Accords at the tail end of its first term.

Saudi Arabia

As new candidates for the Abraham Accords go, Saudi Arabia remains the big prize. In May, President Trump stated that it is “my fervent hope, wish and even my dream that Saudi Arabia… will soon be joining the Abraham Accords,” but tempered such expectation with stating that Saudi Arabia would “…do it in [its] own time.” (RELATED: Trump Should Expand the Abraham Accords to Saudi Arabia and Pakistan)

Key elements that would need to be resolved would be U.S. recognition of Saudi Arabia as a civilian nuclear power (which the Trump administration has considered), and the establishment of U.S. defense guarantees and contracts with the Saudis. Key to bringing Israel on board would be a deal that does not link Palestinian statehood, which the Biden administration was insistent on, and which Benjamin Netanyahu’s government rightly views as a poison pill.

The Trump administration should continue its diplomatic spree by pursuing the expansion of the Abraham Accords into Azerbaijan, Somaliland, Indonesia, and Saudi Arabia. Such deals are quite feasible and hopefully will happen soon.

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