The war in Ukraine is a proxy war. Ukraine is the proxy of America and NATO. To stem a Russian invasion, America and its NATO allies are helping Ukrainians defend their country against the invaders in every way save by putting “boots on the ground.” The question is just how long America and its allies will persevere and whether respective elected governments can, over time, convince their electorates that the benefits of continued support for Ukraine outweigh the costs, in this case almost entirely financial.
Will Russia, with an economy just a fraction of the size of that of the EU and the U.S., having shifted to a wartime economy, sustained by energy revenues largely from China, and a much larger potential recruitment population under strict control, outlast the Western democracies helping Ukraine? (READ MORE: ‘Our Democracy’ Isn’t What You Think, And You Just Saw It in Colorado)
Vladimir Putin, looking in the rearview mirror and seeing America’s abandonment of its proxies in Vietnam, and more recently, its ally in Afghanistan, certainly seems to think so.
War In the Nuclear Age
In the nuclear age, major powers do not directly engage in all-out war with one another. If they want to achieve geopolitical objectives by military means, they engage in war by proxy. That’s what happened in Korea, Vietnam, and Afghanistan, and is happening right now in Ukraine and Israel in the Middle East.
Democracies can win drawn-out proxy wars — but only if their electorates are fully on board. That requires a narrative that either promises victory or delivers the necessary wherewithal to achieve the goal. If stalemate, not victory is the goal, that needs to be rigorously explained to the public, which needs to be informed by political (and military) leadership they can trust. (READ MORE: Why Are Republicans Ready to Abandon Freedom and Ukraine?)
When deterrence fails, lessons from the last three-quarters of a century tell a compelling story.
America did not lose the Vietnam War on the battlefield. We simply left the country to Communist forces rather than endure a costly stalemate, as we did (successfully) in Korea. That stalemate with a now nuclear-armed North Korea has lasted 70 years and South Korea stands today as a flourishing democracy. We can thank Presidents Truman and Eisenhower for their foresight.
The North Vietnamese and Viet Cong invaders of South Vietnam were proxy forces of a then-expansionist USSR and Communist China working together and supporting their proxies with impunity. We were in an undeclared proxy war. The USSR, Communist China, and their North Vietnamese proxies persevered and prevailed when America lost the political will to continue and accept some form of stalemate, particularly after the Watergate scandal. With President Nixon gone and Congress in anti-war hands, support for the war in Vietnam ended.
In the wake of the victory in Vietnam, the Soviet Union fomented so-called “Wars of National Liberation” to expand their power and influence in South and Central America and Africa. They invaded Afghanistan to prop up the Communist government they had installed. The infamous dominoes were falling. Then Ronald Reagan was elected. “We win, they lose”.
The Drawn-Out Afghanistan Proxy War
Meanwhile, the United States supported non-Communist forces, our proxies, around the world in resisting Soviet-inspired takeovers with arms, training, and intelligence. After the Soviet Union invaded in 1979, America armed the Afghan resistance in a 10-year war which eventually saw the Soviet military leave the country. We can thank President Reagan for his leadership.
But the proxy war in Afghanistan was not over. Enter the Taliban in the mid-1990s — a contingent of young Afghan men, raised in radical Islamist schools (Madrassas) in Pakistan in the 1980s and 90s. They were created, trained, and armed by Pakistani military and intelligence services to extend Pakistan’s power and influence in Afghanistan. In 2001, after 9/11, as a result of the Taliban government’s unwillingness to deliver their al-Qaeda “guest” Osama bin Laden to justice in the U.S., America embarked on a war lasting some 20 years against Pakistan’s Taliban proxies.
The U.S. could not defeat the proxies of a powerful neighboring Pakistan. But with its NATO allies, it was able to achieve a stalemate. Unfortunately, America, under the leadership of both Presidents Trump and Biden, rejected the stalemate and, in the end, Biden pulled out precipitously, shamefully, and incompetently. Pakistan and its Taliban proxies were victorious. The world has yet to feel the implications of that decision.
Middle Eastern Terrorists are Iranian Proxies
Finally, there are Iran’s proxy wars in the Middle East. The Mullahs, operating with impunity thus far, are using their proxy, Hamas, to wage war against Israel. Another Iranian proxy, Hezbollah (with Russia’s help), props up the Assad dictatorship in Syria and threatens Israel from a weak Lebanon. Houthi proxies of Iran in Yemen threaten crucial shipping lanes in the Red Sea with drones and missiles.
Continued demonstrations against Israel and the U.S. the world over, favor the Iranians and their proxies. With Russia in close collaboration with Iran, and China buying oil from both and selling back manufactured products, the problems for Israel and the West have compounded, especially over the long run.
Like the successful proxy wars against America and the West in Vietnam and Afghanistan, the proxy wars in the Middle East have not yet touched their primary sponsor, Iran. Whether or not Iran remains insulated from its proxy wars over time could well determine who wins and who loses. So far, fearing a wider war, neither the U.S. nor Israel has wanted to take on Iran.
History shows that Western democracies have a perseverance problem when it comes to proxy wars, especially in comparison to autocratic regimes where governing bodies do not have to answer to electorates. Communist China, Russia, Pakistan, Iran, etc. have fielded proxy forces without worrying about internal opposition to their policies.
Autocracies can sacrifice lives in a way democracies cannot. For example, Putin has four times Ukraine’s manpower pool and sends Russian soldiers to fight and die in the war without any significant criticism while Ukraine, with a much smaller manpower pool, must be highly sensitive to its casualties. Russia readily propagandizes and represses its public and provides them with a sophisticated and convincing alternate reality.
Democracies cannot lie to their public and be successful. They cannot ignore the will and the patience of their public. Autocracies can do both.
As America has learned — painfully — that military strength alone is not enough to prevail. If victory is the goal, every relevant weapon of war (other than nukes) should be engaged. However, in dealing with a nuclear-armed adversary like Russia, it is absolute folly to take nukes off the table unilaterally as President Biden did in Ukraine, subjecting him and the West to Putin’s nuclear blackmail.
Critics of Mr. Biden’s leadership say he slow-walked delivering the necessary weapons in a timely fashion, begging the question: did the Biden administration want to defeat the Russians while defeat was a possibility?
Clearly and effectively communicating goals and objectives to the public from the outset of conflict has not been the case in Ukraine. The mantra “whatever it takes” is nebulous and open-ended. Is Biden even capable of explaining the urgency of Ukraine to the American people?
If victory is not possible and only stalemate can be achieved, the public needs to know if and why that’s a superior alternative to just quitting the fight and surrendering to the adversary. In all cases, strong leadership from elected Presidents and Prime Ministers is crucial but the latest Winston Churchill has been hard to find. Lacking such leadership, proxy wars may well be a losing proposition for democracies. If the latter is true, perhaps it makes sense not to engage at all. In war, history shows quite clearly that half-heartedness is a losing proposition.
How democratic societies respond to today’s proxy wars may well determine the fate of the West. Certainly, it will determine how history judges Biden. These wars hang in the balance today. The world is watching us.
Proxy War Scorecard
1953 Korea: Stalemate
1975 Vietnam: Autocrats Win (but only after Democracies reject Stalemate)
Late 1980s Latin America, Africa: Stalemate (then USSR collapses and Democracies Win)
1989 Afghanistan 1.0: Democracies Win
2021 Afghanistan 2.0: Autocrats Win (but only after Democracies reject Stalemate)
2023 Ukraine: TBD
2023 Israel: TBD
Don Ritter served 14 years in Congress on the Energy & Commerce and Science & Technology committees.