It is springtime in the West.
This moment recalls the words of Poland’s Cold War-era philosopher Leszek Kołakowski, who asserted, “Obvious lies uttered aloud with impunity are excellent proofs of the health of the system.” The lies are no longer uttered with impunity, and that’s an indication the liberal order is crumbling.
Vance’s Hard Truths Resonate
Vice President JD Vance magnified this new reality in his veritable Zeitenwende speech in Munich last week. According to the vice president, Europe is captive to a self-important political class disdainful of its citizens, increasingly willing to stifle their speech and democratic preferences, and militarily reliant on an America that it scorns. None of this is novel in circles critical of liberalism, but Vance asserted it with the gravitas of his office, at a sacred altar of the transatlantic elite — an American Zeitenwende, indeed.
Though the vice president did not mention Poland in his speech, Poles immediately perceived their country as an implicit target of criticism. His line about “the side in that fight that censored dissidents, that closed churches, that canceled elections,” noted in a Cold War context, particularly fired passions across the Polish political spectrum.
Recall that the current Polish government has made a mockery of democratic principles after coming to power on a platform dominated by “rule-of-law” rhetoric. Since December 2023, the government of Prime Minister Donald Tusk has staged a coup at the public broadcaster, arrested political opponents and Catholic priests, maltreated protesters, and ignored rulings — and even the offices — of judges it finds inconvenient. (RELATED: Poland’s Liberal-Democracy Has Adopted Martial Law)
The EU’s rule-of-law mechanism, currently wielded against sovereigntist governments in Hungary and Slovakia, disappeared instantly after former EU Council President Tusk returned to Warsaw. Tusk has cited the political science doctrine of “fighting democracy,” a concept developed — predictably enough — as a response to the Nazi era in which the European political class perpetually resides. (RELATED: Why Isn’t Poland Smiling? Just Ask the Protesting Farmers Attacked by Police Last Week.)
Vice President Vance is aware of these developments, as he addressed the topic publicly during his time in the Senate. In January 2024, he contended, “What we’re seeing in Poland is an actual assault on democracy.” The lies are no longer uttered with impunity.
After Vance’s Munich speech, Tusk took to X to write: “Everyone who quotes the words of John Paul II ‘BE NOT AFRAID’, should remember that they were meant to strengthen the Polish nation in its resistance against the Russian domination.” “No one will lecture us on how we should arrange our European affairs,” added Marshal of the Sejm (akin to Speaker of the House) Szymon Hołownia.
“They can’t censor JD Vance, so they get hysterical and try to shout him down, without asking where he was wrong,” said Dr. Mieczysław Ryba, a professor at the John Paul II Catholic University of Lublin. “The very fact that Tusk reacted to JD Vance’s statement shows that it hurt him.”
Lies Exposed and the Upcoming Elections in Poland
Though the Tusk government’s gangster behavior has earned most international attention, Poles also recognize Vance’s pronouncements on migration politics and free speech.
The Tusk government has eagerly bludgeoned its predecessors for duplicity on the migration issue, but it awkwardly does so from a political space that demands ever more EU integration and liberalism. It quietly announced the opening of 49 migrant settlement centers across the country last year. It had previously assured Poles the enormous numbers of resettled Ukrainians would exempt Poland from Brussels migrant-relocation mandates; but after a recent EU dictate, it had to concede it spoke out of turn. The government is trying to postpone further commitments on this issue until after this spring’s presidential election.
Poles have consistently voted against this. In fact, a previous Tusk-affiliated government lost in the 2015 parliamentary elections after it unexpectedly signed on to that year’s EU migrant relocation scheme. Surveys reveal supporters of the small Left coalition are split on this issue, while supporters of all other parties firmly reject non-European immigration. “It’s the result of a series of conscious decisions made by politicians,” as Vance emphasized.
Along with abortion, “hate-speech” legislation has been a social priority of the Tusk government. As in other parts of Europe, if the proposed law were to pass, statements consistent with Catholic doctrine on subjects like family, marriage, and sex would be criminalized. Should Warsaw’s efforts fail, the European Commission’s own “hate-speech” provisions, part of its draconian Digital Services Act, are waiting in the wings. (RELATED: Poland Caves to Foreign Pressure, Introduces Bill to Allow Same-Sex Unions)
These legislative flashpoints loom in the campaigning for this spring’s presidential election, set to occur on May 18, with a second round on June 1, if necessary. Since the Polish president holds veto power, the outcome will prove the difference between fierce parliamentary battles and carte blanche for Tusk’s government. As the term-limited President Andrzej Duda is affiliated with conservative opposition forces, contentious legislation has been sure to draw a veto in the year-plus since the power transition.
The likely two candidates in the runoff round are liberal Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, supported by the dominant government coalition, and historian Karol Nawrocki, supported by the dominant opposition coalition. Duda narrowly defeated Trzaskowski in 2020, but first-round polls consistently show Trzaskowski with a lead this year. Duda overcame similarly stark first-round poll numbers to defeat his Tusk-backed incumbent opponent in 2015 — indeed, German media are already warning of “the Duda scenario.” Furthermore, predicting second-round behavior from voters of eliminated candidates is not a straightforward exercise.
After this week’s German federal election, this will be arguably the most consequential political contest of 2025. The winds of international political change and the brazenness of Tusk’s tactics should benefit Nawrocki, and Poland has been far more receptive to sovereigntist and conservative politics than its counterparts in Western Europe.
The United States also has much on the line in a country Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth called a “model ally” during his visit last week. One incident during that visit demonstrates just how tenuous that model status could be.
In a meeting between Hegseth and Polish Minister of National Defense Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, the interpreter was Magdalena Fitas-Czuchnowska, the wife of a liberal journalist who wrote two days earlier that Hegseth was “tattooed like a recidivist moron.” Fitas-Czuchnowska even shared her husband’s post. The two defense ministers were slated to visit an American transport aviation base in the country the following day, an event the American side abruptly canceled.
READ MORE by Michael O’Shea:
Are the Protests in Slovakia Due to NGO and USAID Interference?
Lessons for Trump from Orbán, Hungary’s ‘Comeback’ Prime Minister