The long nightmare of the Assad family dictatorship has come to a sudden end. Hafez al-Assad seized power in Damascus in a 1970 coup, and now, 54 years later, his son Bashar has fled to Moscow for refuge. Scenes of celebration across Syria testify to widespread hostility toward the regime and collective elation at its collapse.

What sort of governance will emerge in Damascus remains unclear. Ideally, a constitutional process and elections could lead to a legitimate and effective administration capable of addressing the misery the Assads bequeathed to their long-suffering country. Alternatively, civil conflict and sectarian strife might ensue, or Syria could become a battlefield for regional powers like Turkey and Iran. Instability in Syria can rapidly escalate into a regional and international security challenge — but also a set of opportunities. (RELATED: Approach Syria With a Tragic Mind)
Impact on Russia
One of the biggest losers in this dramatic turn of events is Russia. Syria served as Moscow’s gateway back into the Middle East after it lost its connection to Egypt in the 1970s. Syria became a de facto client state, hosting Russia’s naval facility at Tartus on the Mediterranean coast. Although the significance of Tartus waned after the Cold War, its importance surged during Syria’s civil war, especially after 2013, when President Obama failed to enforce his “red line” threat. At that juncture, Moscow emerged as Damascus’s chief supporter.
However, preoccupied now with its costly war in Ukraine, Russia could not come to Assad’s aid. Russia has not only lost a client but has also signaled to the world that it is willing to abandon allies. Memo to BRICS countries: Don’t count on Putin to save your skin.
Any Russian loss is a potential gain for the West. Washington should seize this opportunity to maximize Russia’s defeat, potentially ending its Mediterranean presence altogether. Unfortunately, the Biden administration appears unprepared, as surprised by the fall o...