Beijing has spent the last several decades pressuring and threatening Taiwan, the island roughly 100 miles off the coast of mainland China, so no one was surprised when, during his New Year’s address, Chinese President Xi Jinping asserted that Taiwan’s reunification with China is a “historical inevitability.”
What made Xi’s remarks especially concerning, however, was that they seemed to fit a pattern of gradually increasing aggression toward the island in the months leading up to Taiwan’s presidential election, which took place on Saturday. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) made it clear that there was at least one outcome of the election that it didn’t like — it didn’t want the Democrat Progressive Party’s candidate, Lai Ching-te, to win. Just days before Taiwan’s voters headed to the polls, a Chinese government spokesman warned that if Lai were elected, he “would continue to follow the evil path of provoking ‘independence,'” taking the island nation “ever further away from peace and prosperity, and ever closer to war and decline.” (READ MORE: World War III Is Coming, and Senile Joe Doesn’t Care)
But if China hoped to influence the election by publicly threatening Taiwan, it didn’t work. Lai won by a decent margin. By the time Lai reached the required 40 percent, he was 7 points ahead of his closest competitor. His win wasn’t just an affront to China; it marked the first time in the island’s history that a political party has stayed in power for three consecutive terms.
It’s unlikely the election results surprised the CCP. Polling data suggests the Taiwanese are distancing themselves from China, and Lai ran on continuing the policies of his predecessor, Tsai Ing-wen, in regard both to China and to domestic issues like housing and the economy.
Tsai has been in power since 2016, and, since then, the number of Taiwanese who prefer to maintain a status quo of intentional ambiguity — in which Taiwan is a distinct entity from China, but has not declared independence from the mainland — has only increased. According to statistics reported by the National Chengchi University (NCCU), just 1.6 percent of the island’s civilians favor unification with mainland China. The NCCU published similar statistics on Taiwanese identity and found that 62.8 percent of the island’s population identify as Taiwanese (up from 17.6 percent in 1992) while just 2.5 percent identify as Chinese (down from 25.5 percent in 1992).
Lai played on that opinion when he told thousands of jubilant supporters on Saturday during his victory speech that “This is a night that belongs to Taiwan. We managed to keep Taiwan on the map of the world.”
China Meddled in Taiwan’s Election
China certainly didn’t want Taiwan to stay on the map of the world — it has been running massive election interference online while maintaining military pressure for months. The Wall Street Journal reported that China had been flooding Taiwanese social media with news articles and deepfake videos, hoping to confuse Taiwanese voters and influence the outcome of the election. For instance, China has pushed the narrative that the election could have existential consequences. “They continue to say that the choice in this election is in between war and peace, and if you vote for the DPP’s candidate, it will mean war,” Taiwan Foreign Minister Joseph Wu told the Journal.
Chatbots deployed by China have also attacked Lai’s running mate, according to the Hill, and have falsely claimed that she is an American citizen and is ineligible for office (she renounced her citizenship in 2002). Meanwhile, a 300-page book attacked Lai’s predecessor, President Tsai Ing-wen, depicting her as “a vile, morally corrupt dictator, sexually promiscuous and hungry for power.” (READ MORE: China’s Defense Minister Is Now an Admiral. What Does That Mean for Taiwan?)
Ethan Tu, the founder of Taiwan AI labs, told the Wall Street Journal, “Every day we have hundreds of battlefields about misleading information on social media.… Taiwan is [the] number one [target] in terms of the foreign government’s false information.… So in Taiwan, overall, every day, every individual has received some kind of information manipulation.” Some 24 million people are living in Taiwan and the island has been subject to thousands of disinformation attacks daily.
But China hasn’t just maintained pressure online; it’s been encroaching in Taiwanese airspace. During the last year, fighter jets and bombers have conducted 1,727 flights crossing into Taiwan’s Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) from mainland China. While some of those incursions seem to have been a response to Rep. Nancy Pelosi’s visit to the island in August 2022, they have continued apace since. The Financial Times reported that just days after the election, China “conducted joint air and naval combat patrols near Taiwan” involving 24 aircraft and five naval ships. “The PLA’s [People’s Liberation Army] operations marked the largest air maneuver and violation of the air defense identification zone, a self-declared buffer zone, since December 28.”
Will China Invade Taiwan?
That kind of response from China was entirely predictable. After the election, a CCP spokesperson asserted that the election “will not change the basic fact that Taiwan is part of China and there is only one China in the world.” The government has also expressed annoyance with the congratulations Lai has received from leaders around the world. For instance, China lashed out at the Philippines, warning Manila “not to play with fire” after Filipino President Ferdinand Marcos sent a congratulatory note to Lai. It also accused the U.S. of sending a “gravely wrong signal” after U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken praised the island’s dedication to democracy. (READ MORE: Vivek, China and Russia Are Not Breaking Up)
But while those statements are possibly concerning, they hardly represent imminent threats. For now, China seems content to express its displeasure while continuing to put pressure on the island, hoping to achieve its goals via threats rather than with an all-out invasion that could involve the U.S., Japan, or Australia.
Xi has every intention of conquering Taiwan by any means necessary, and based on his recent conversation with President Joe Biden in San Francisco, he would like to do so soon. Unless something changes, it seems at least possible that the world could find itself watching the outbreak of yet another war.