This week marked the launch of a new effort to recall California Gov. Gavin Newsom from office. As it follows a much-hyped and yet totally unsuccessful recall effort in 2021 that saw Newsom avoid an ousting by a 24-percentage-point margin, it seems likely that this second effort too will be unsuccessful.

Still, the past year has seen Newsom’s approval rating fall to its lowest level on record — lower even than that following the French Laundry scandal during the COVID-19 pandemic. Many commentators have attributed that rising discontent to Newsom’s all-encompassing focus on raising his profile nationally even as the entire state of California experiences crisis after crisis. That discontent could theoretically provide fuel to a recall effort.

After Newsom’s approval rating fell to its lowest level on record in November 2023, registering at 44 percent support in a poll conducted by the University of California, Berkeley, the director of that poll, Mark DiCamillo, pointed to Newsom’s efforts to position himself on the national stage as the reason for the decline. “He’s kind of taking on a new persona,” DiCamillo told the Los Angeles Times. “He’s no longer just the governor of California. He’s a spokesperson for the national party and basically voters are being asked to react to that.”

Newsom’s decision to prioritize himself over his state has drawn criticism even from liberal media outlets. For example, last year the Atlantic published an article headlined “Gavin Newsom Is Not Governing” that asserted, “Leading California is more than a full-time job—and neglecting it to do PR stunts in red states is frivolous and irresponsible.” The San Francisco Chronicle editorial board also spoke up last year to say, “Newsom needs to get back to work in California — and focus on nitty-gritty policy details as much as flashy headlines.” That editorial was headlined “California Needs You at Home, Gov. Newsom.”

The recall effort is now utilizing this same line of critique to go after Newsom. “It’s not a good time for him to check out,” said Anne Dunsmore, one of the leaders of the recall effort, of Newsom’s focus on national action. “But if he’s going to check out, we’ll kick him out,” she concluded. She further told CalMatters that she hopes the recall effort will encourage Newsom to get off the campaign trail for President Joe Biden and get back to governing in California. Dunsmore cited as additional reasons for Newsom’s ouster California’s $73 billion budget shortage, the extension of health insurance coverage to illegal immigrants, the state’s homelessness crisis, and the exodus from the state.

Californians were reminded of the continual decline of their state Wednesday when Macy’s announced that it will shutter its iconic 400,000-square-foot San Francisco location. The San Francisco Chronicle described the closure as a “devastating blow” and “one of the biggest retail closures the city has ever seen.” The Macy’s closure follows the closure of two Nordstrom stores in downtown San Francisco last year; both locations could simply no longer turn a solid profit given the rampant shoplifting that plagued them and the roving homeless population that circled them. The situation at the Macy’s location has gotten so bad that San Francisco’s police department has been forced to have officers stand in rows outside of the store’s entrances as a deterrence. (WATCH: The Spectator P.M. Podcast Ep. 26: The Coming California Budgeting Disaster Will Hurt Newsom)

Even with California’s evident decline, it is a tall order to oust a Democratic star in a state where nearly twice as many voters are registered Democrats (46.9 percent of voters) as are registered Republicans (23.8 percent of voters). Yet recall organizers do have a possible path to get on the ballot, as California’s large population means that there are more than 5 million registered Republicans (1.3 million signatures are necessary to get the recall question on the ballot). Last time, the recall effort only made it onto the ballot because it was given an extension due to COVID-19. However, organizers say that effort provided plentiful experience that will make this signature-gathering effort more efficient.

Dunsmore, who leads Rescue California, which was also instrumental in the 2021 recall, is trying to pin the blame for the recall’s failure on Larry Elder, who was the top vote-getter among the options to replace Newsom. Dunsmore told CalMatters that the recall would go very differently with a better candidate. “The job now,” she said, “is to find someone who’s qualified.”

Even if the recall is unable to get onto the ballot, the prospect of it will cast a shadow over Newsom as he seeks to campaign for Biden and waits in the wings in the case that the president drops out prior to the Democratic National Convention in August. It will serve as a constant reminder of the discontent in California over the state’s budget shortfall, homelessness crisis, crime crisis, and population loss. Dunsmore acknowledged this to Politico, saying that “blowing up” Newsom’s national efforts was an “added benefit” of the recall effort. At the same time, the fact that the recall effort lost so badly in 2021 will significantly diminish another recall’s efficacy in projecting the idea of opposition to Newsom.