As unbelievable and unforeseen events unfold right in front of our eyes in Russia, more people begin to ask: What’s the end game? How will this bloodiest war in Europe since World War II end? What will the future of the continent look like?
It looks to be the right time to analyze some of the most common misperceptions about Russia, Putin, and Putinism. (READ MORE: Edward Luttwak: The U.S. Must End the Russia–Ukraine War)
Myth One: Putin Is Strong, and Nuclear-Superpower Russia Cannot Be Defeated
Here in Ukraine, many were very afraid of the Russian army at the beginning of the invasion. I am a former member of the Russian Parliament, and I was part of many classified briefings in Moscow. I know how much Russia spends on defense. But as a Putin oppositionist for many years, I also understand how inefficient the military procurement is and how much is lost to Putin’s system of bluff, corruption, and cronyism. Yet even I did not expect such a poor performance by the Russian army; in fact, I fully expected to die embracing my machine gun while defending Kyiv.
Today we all know the truth. The Russian army is not the second best in the world. It is second in Ukraine, and, even in Russia itself, it looks second to the Freedom of Russia Legion, which, with just four battalions, has managed to deliver a shock to Putinists in the Belgorod region.
Myth Two: Russians Are Ready to Die for Putin and His Plan to Rebuild the Grand ‘Russian Empire’
Ukrainians are fighting to defend their homeland. Russians are fighting for … what, exactly?
Yes, it’s true that the Kremlin reserves are huge, and that includes both munitions and people. But the Russian army has no spirit. Its soldiers are not willing to die; only Wagner troops were — because they, as prisoners, had a dog in the fight and were fighting for their own personal freedom. But your average Russian soldier? He is part of the fight either for money or because he was conscripted; in both cases, he has only one goal, which is to survive.
And let’s face it, that’s just not the spirit that wins wars.
Myth Three: Don’t Push Putin Too Far, or He’ll Use Those Nukes
Remember all the photos of Putin at what seemed like a mile-long conference table? Clearly, this is not a suicidal man. But he knows that if he uses nukes, he will be one of the casualties.
Putin is fine with threatening us to use nukes as long as we show him signs of fear — he blackmails others but won’t risk retaliation on himself.
Myth Four: The Future After Putin Will Be Worse
There are a lot of people who are afraid that if Putin suddenly goes, chaos, civil war, and the collapse of Russia will follow. In fact, this myth gets repeated over and over again on Russian TV and then by U.S. officials in Washington. But here’s the problem with this argument: Russia is already on the road to chaos, civil war, and collapse, and it is Vladimir Putin who leads it there.
Before Putin invaded Ukraine, the country was not free, but it was pretty stable; the economy was growing, and the majority of society (unfortunately!) actually was consolidated around their leader. But now the golden age of Putin is gone, the military is in a state of unrest, rebellious criminals are marching on Moscow with no resistance, guerilla attacks are happening every day all across Russia, and no good solution for Putin is on the horizon.
It’s time to stop worrying that someone will make it worse. Putin needs to be removed to prevent chaos and collapse ASAP.
Myth Five: A Weakened Moscow Will Allow China to Take Siberia
Yes, China is very interested in the natural resources of Siberia. But so far, Chinese presence in the United States is dramatically higher than it is in Siberia. I can assure you, as the former representative of the third-largest city in Russia — Novosibirsk in Siberia — that Siberians are very sensitive to any threat from China and remain alert.
And after all, the best way to encourage a takeover of Taiwan (or Siberia) by Beijing is to let NATO fail in Ukraine. Our interest is to keep aggression irrevocably linked to failure.
Myth Six: There Will Never Be Democracy in Russia
Oh, poo. Are Russians somehow different from you and me? Of course not. To think otherwise is, frankly, to be racist. Every nation on earth today that is a democracy was something else before that. And every nation has a different story to tell about how they got there.
Germany did it after World War II; in fact, it took just four years to transform the country away from the worst totalitarian nightmare. Or remember the quick transitions that happened in South Korea, Spain, and Chile?
It’s a matter of investing the hard work to build proper laws and institutions that are to be designed to serve the greater good instead of the selfish self-interest of the founding fathers. Yes, in the 1990s, we saw in our country what happens when leaders put themselves first (alas, with the aid of the West, which confused democracy with the rule of “Democrats”). Democratic failure. But that’s not the end of the story for Russia; we learned from that mistake.
Myth Seven: Russia Will Always Be a Threat to Its Neighbors
Yes, this is true if Russia is allowed to stay undemocratic and if someone from Putin’s inner circle becomes his replacement. Under these circumstances, the Russian Empire will surely reemerge, as it did after Khrushchev’s brief “warming.”
On the other hand, Germany gives us the greatest example of what is possible after democratic reform: The same country that pulled the world into the two bloodiest wars in European history is now the most pacifist nation on the European continent and the watchdog of peace. (I would even argue that it’s now going too far in that direction, but let’s save that for a future op-ed.)
The lesson here for all of us to remember is that such things never happen on their own. Aggressive regimes need to be reformed from the outside, and, for Russia, the forthcoming military defeat in Ukraine is the best time to do it.
Myth Eight: Based on History, Russia Can Rightfully Make a Claim to Ukraine
No, no, no. This argument of U.S. “pragmatists” is not just cynical; it also denies nations and people the right to self-determination.
And as a side note, history shows that Russia is an offspring of civilization once started in Kyiv, not the other way around; but that doesn’t give Ukraine the right to take over Russia any more than Russia has a right to take over Ukraine.
Finally, Something That Is No Myth at All: For the West, There Is No Risk-Free Solution to the Situation in Russia Today
Every option involves some danger, but the most dangerous option is indecisiveness. This is because indecisiveness telegraphs to Putin and all other bad guys around the world that the free world is weak and lacking in moral resolve and is not united against them.
The fact is that risk exists during any transition. In Russia today, this risk is increasing every day because, as Putin gets weaker, numerous actors are tempted to use his demise for their own benefit. The best way to mitigate the risks that come with the doom loop for Putin is to avoid dragging our feet and instead ensure quick and well-calculated change that would be manifest to Russian elites.
History shows that indecisiveness in the moment of change always causes rather than solves problems. Just remember the collapse of the USSR, where only countries that were quick enough to move under the EU and NATO umbrellas became peaceful, safe, and prosperous. Strong leadership during a transition paves the way to preserving the national interest of a nation, and what Russia needs today is support from the rest of the world for a transition away from Putinism to democracy.
The indecisiveness of the good guys decreases Russia’s chances of becoming a democracy and further increases the odds that the country will be led down an even darker path. We will not let that happen!
Ilya Ponomarev was a member of the State Duma from 2007 to 2016. He was the only member to vote against the annexation of Crimea in 2014, and shortly afterward, Putin’s government forced him into exile. Mr. Ponomarev, among 93 former MPs, is a member of the Congress of People’s Deputies, the shadow Russian Parliament that is currently working on legislation for post-Putin Russia, including the new constitution of the country. He lives in Kyiv, joined Ukraine’s Territorial Defense on Feb. 24, 2022, and in August 2022, became the political coordinator of the Freedom of Russia Legion. Mr. Ponomarev is the author of “Does Putin Have to Die?: The Story of How Russia Becomes a Democracy after Losing to Ukraine.”
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