As his aircraft exploded around him, the last thought that probably went through Yevgeny Prigozhin’s mind was, “Well, this is no surprise.”

Prigozhin, once one of Vladimir Putin’s closest allies, was the creator and commander of the mercenary Wagner Group which has been fighting and making trouble everywhere from Ukraine to the Middle East and Africa. Many of its troops are now in Belarus.

It’s surprising that Prigozhin lived as long as he did since he led the Wagner Group in an abortive coup against Putin and Putin’s generals in June.

Was Prigozhin’s death a murder? Seriously, folks. This is Putin’s Russia. His thugs routinely murder reporters (e.g., Anna Politkovskaya), poison (Alexander Litvonov) or attempt to poison (Sergei Skripal and his daughter) dissidents and he imprisons his significant political opponents (Alexei Navalny).

The evidence indicates that there was an explosion aboard the aircraft. Embraer, the aircraft’s manufacturer, produces fine aircraft which don’t blow up on their own accord. It had to be a bomb on board the aircraft. (The only evidence lacking is that we know of no fat guy on the aircraft ground crew telling a skinny guy to, “…leave the bomb, take the cannoli.”)

Also aboard the aircraft were a number of the top commanders of the Wagner Group. So where does the Wagner Group go? And how does this affect those jockeying for power when Putin dies?

Putin has decreed that all Wagner troops must now swear allegiance to Russia (i.e., to him). He will probably succeed in that, for the most part, but it won’t be easy. The Wagner troops were mostly recruited from Russian prisons and paid more than the regular Russian conscripts. They won’t like Russian army ranks and discipline. Some will desert but many will comply. The rest will be killed. (READ MORE: Don’t Be a Kiev Chicken, Putin)

We used to mock the Russian gerontocracy when it was dominated by men such as Leonid Brezhnev, who served as General Secretary of the Soviet Union until he was seventy-six years old. Now, Russia’s leaders are younger than too many of ours. Joe Biden is eighty, several senators including Mitch McConnell are in their eighties and Dianne Feinstein is 90. Biden’s senility prevents us from having a strategy in the Ukraine war.

Putin has been rumored to be dying of cancer for years, but at age seventy he seems to be comfortably in power. Prigozhin wanted to succeed Putin, but Prigozhin’s death clears the way for several other people who will vie for Putin’s position when he dies. Here are four who are currently in contention.

The first is Nikolai Patruschev, age seventy-two, who has been chief of the Russian Security Council for several years. When Putin was supposedly out of action to have cancer surgery, he briefly turned his powers over to Patruschev.

Patruschev is as much of a hard-liner on Ukraine (and other matters) as is Putin. He is one of the “siloviki,” (Russian for “men of force,” all of whom are former intelligence officers who govern Russia with Putin.) What we don’t know about Patruschev is whether he is as dedicated to restoring Russian domination of the old Soviet empire as Putin is. It’s a pretty safe bet that he is. That means there will be no respite for Ukraine and no guarantee of European security as long as he’s in the picture.

The same is true of Defense Minister Shoigu, age sixty-eight. Shoigu’s leadership of the Russian invasion of Ukraine may have been dominated by Putin, but it’s safe to say that Shoigu will want to recoup his reputation by continuing the Ukraine war. (READ MORE:Russia in Turmoil: Is It 1905 or 1917?)

Shoigu, more than Putin, was the target of Prigozhin’s June coup attempt. Prigozhin had often condemned Shoigu and his subordinates as the reason Ukraine was not conquered by Russian troops quickly in 2022. Shoigu, like Putin, cultivates a tough-guy image but he lacks combat experience. He’s more of an arm-chair general who is pumped up by publicity. He will, nevertheless, continue to jockey for power. Shoigu won’t make peace in Ukraine unless he is forced to do so.

Shoigu’s weakness comes from his probable unpopularity among Russian generals. Unless his maneuvering changes that, he won’t succeed Putin.

Dimitry Medvedev, age fifty-eight, is something of a dark horse. Medvedev served as Putin’s proxy president from 2008-2012 when a provision in the Russian constitution (now eliminated) prevented Putin from serving continuously. Medvedev has been serving as Patrushev’s deputy on the Russian Security Council since 2020.

Medvedev, in Russian terms, is a moderate. When he served as Russia’s president the New START Treaty was signed with the United States. Putin said in February that Russia has suspended its obligations under the treaty.

That leaves another dark horse, Sergei Ivanov, age seventy. Ivanov is another one of the siloviki, a former KGB officer in the days of the Soviet Union and a close ally of Putin. Like Patruschev, Ivanov is a hard-liner on everything that comprises Putin’s agenda including Ukraine.

None of these four men is, as far as we know, Putin’s chosen successor, if that choice means anything at all. There may be another among the siloviki who could take over when Putin dies.

Putin’s death will almost certainly not change Russia’s character or behavior. The only thing that could change those factors is the stress on Russia’s economy.

The ruble has lost one-third of its value in recent months and now trades for about 1 cent to the U.S. dollar. Russia is importing more and exporting less, thanks in part to the economic sanctions imposed by the U.S. and NATO nations. Russia’s central bank has hiked interest rates to try to save the ruble but that may not help much. But the Russian economy has not been sufficiently weakened by international sanctions to prevent Russia from, for example, trying to land a package (unsuccessfully) on the moon’s southern tip. (READ MORE: Old Yeller, the NATO Summit, and Moving Troops to Europe)

Putin will continue pursuing his aggression against Ukraine and Eastern Europe as long as he is alive. His likely successors will do the same. President Biden won’t change Russia’s behavior nor will Donald Trump if he is elected next year. Trump’s longstanding misplaced admiration of Putin will prevent him from causing that chance either.

As I have often written, Putin wants to keep the war going until 2025 when U.S. support for Ukraine will diminish. Putin can outlast the Ukrainians in his war. He can probably outlast us as well.