As recently as 2019, the majority of American women identified as pro-life. In a Gallup poll that year, 51 percent of American women described themselves as “pro-life,” while 43 percent described themselves as “pro-choice.”

Now, women are rapidly converting to the pro-abortion side and locking arms in support of ending unborn children’s lives. In Gallup’s 2024 poll on the same question, 63 percent of women identified as pro-choice, while 33 percent of women identified as pro-life. 

Until recently, women had been fairly divided on the issue of abortion. Before 2022, Gallup polls consistently showed a much narrower gap between pro-choice and pro-life women, with the difference never exceeding 12 percentage points. 

The Trump campaign’s response to this trend has been to run away from the issue of abortion and to disavow any plans to use federal power to disrupt the practice of killing unborn children. In April, former President Donald Trump released a statement pledging that states would have total power on the issue in his administration. “The states will determine by vote or legislation or perhaps both, and whatever they decide must be the law of the land,” he said. At the same time, Trump endorsed the practice of IVF, which notably results in more killings of unborn children on an annual basis than do abortions of children in utero. Some sources have suggested that the number of people killed by the IVF industry is double that of those killed by the traditional abortion industry. 

Trump’s promises that he will do nothing on the issue of abortion are doing very little to attract female voters. According to polling by the New York Times, Vice President Kamala Harris has an 11-percentage-point advantage over Trump when it comes to female voters. President Joe Biden, who has less of a reputation for being unapologetically pro-choice, had a 4-percentage-point advantage over Donald Trump when it came to women. This slippage among female voters is at the root of Trump’s declining prospects for winning the election.

Many conservatives have responded to the increasing number of Americans who support abortion by arguing that Republicans should distance themselves from the pro-life position as much as possible.

For example, after Republican vice presidential candidate JD Vance proclaimed support for abortion drugs — which end unborn children’s lives — Sohrab Ahmadi lauded the move, saying, “Politics is the art of the possible. @JDVance1 has to work within the parameters of American political reality in a way that activists and intellectuals can’t fathom.”

Here’s the problem with that strategy. Pro-choice women view the furtherance of abortion at every place and time as a civil rights issue. They therefore are committed to electing leaders who will do everything possible to expand access to the baby-killing procedure. These women will not elect someone who pledges to do nothing on the issue at a time when 14 states have a near-total ban on abortion. 

The data bears this out. A full 40 percent of pro-choice voters say they will only vote for a candidate who shares their views, while an additional group says support for abortion is an important factor. This means that a full 23 percent of registered voters say they will only vote for a candidate who shares their pro-choice position. 

The timidity on the issue of abortion that Trump has pursued will do nothing to convince these voters. In fact, it could be argued that Trump’s form of conservatism has made voters, especially female voters, more pro-choice and thus pushed them toward the Democratic Party. This is the argument put forward by Ross Douthat, the New York Times’ socially conservative columnist. In April, Douthat wrote:

And one does not need to be a monocausalist to see how the identification of the anti-abortion cause with [Trump’s] particular persona, his personal history and public style, might have persuaded previously wavering and ambivalent Americans to see the pro-life movement differently than they did before.

If you set out to champion the rights of the most vulnerable human beings while promising protection and support for women in their most vulnerable state, and your leader is a man famous for his playboy lifestyle who exudes brash sexism and contempt for weakness, people are going to have some legitimate questions about whether they can trust you to make good on your promises of love and care.

Regardless of whether Douthat accurately diagnoses the problem, there is no denying that the rise of Donald Trump as the standard-bearer for the Republican Party has corresponded with a societal shift toward the pro-abortion position, especially among women. If the trend continues, more and more women will become locked-in Democratic voters for whom furthering the cause of abortion will be their top priority. 

The only way for Republicans to stop this exodus to the Democratic side is to create more pro-life voters. Though growing the pro-life base is a difficult task, it is a much smarter proposition than shying away from the issue while 63 percent, then 73 percent, and then 83 percent of women become diehard pro-abortion activists.

Doing this begins with standing up for policies that will save children’s lives and speaking out against the evil that is abortion.