Over the last day or so Vladimir Putin’s one-time close friend Yevgeny Prigozhin has embarked on what reports say is an attempted coup against the Russian leader. President Vladimir Putin is not given to melodramatic statements. His actions — especially his February 2022 invasion of Ukraine — speak for themselves.
That’s why his statements on Friday and Saturday about the coup attempt against him now being conducted by Wagner Group creator and commander Yevgeny Prigozhin command the world’s attention. Prighozin has ordered about 25,000 Wagner troops out of Ukraine. He reportedly has a force of 50,000 there to call on. So far, the Wagner Group has taken the Russian military headquarters in Rostov-on-Don and was moving troops and vehicles quickly toward Moscow.
On Friday evening, Putin called Prigozhin’s actions a “betrayal” that amounts to “treason.” Putin said, “Those who carry deliberately on a path of treason, preparing an armed rebellion when you were preparing terrorist attacks, will be punished. Any internal turmoil is a deadly threat to our statehood for us as a nation; it is a blow to Russia for our people and our actions to protect our homeland. Such a threat will face a severe response.”
But Putin has been unable, so far, to generate any response to Prigozhin’s coup attempt. In response to Putin’s statement, Prigozhin said, “Regarding the betrayal of the motherland, the president was deeply mistaken. We are patriots of our homeland.” He added, “This is not a military coup, but a march of justice.”
According to the latest reports, Putin has fled Moscow for St. Petersburg which is about 420 miles to the northwest. Moscow’s main airport is closed to all but military traffic.
Prigozhin’s forces have met little or no resistance in their advance. The only Russian leader who has come out in Putin’s defense is Chechen warlord Ramzan Khadyrov, who has condemned Prigozhin’s actions and committed to opposing his forces against Prigozhin’s. How he can deploy any forces against Prigozhin’s is uncertain at best.
Prigozhin has been threatening rebellion against Russia’s military commanders for several months. As I wrote in March, there were clear signs that Prigozhin was planning some sort of coup against Putin. Now, the question of whether Prigozhin’s coup attempt can succeed is open.
By the end of July, either Prighozin or Putin will be dead. One of those deaths may come much sooner. Putin, who is probably the wealthiest man in the world after 23 years in power, cannot survive if Prigozhin takes Moscow.
Prigozhin has frequently condemned the Russian military leadership. He has accused them of firing on Wagner Group troops. Whether this is true or not, a Prigozhin success in his coup attempt will mean that Putin’s generals will not survive longer than he does.
What Prigozhin may have done — wisely, for a coup plotter — is to split the allegiances of the Russian security forces, the FSB. In normal Russian politics, the FSB would control the outcome of any coup against Putin. Putin’s government — the “siloviki,” veterans, like him, of the KGB — seemed solid until now. It may still be.
On Friday, the head of Russia’s security services said, “Prigozhin’s statements and actions effectively constitute calls for an armed civil conflict on Russian territory and a stab in the back of Russian servicemen. We call on the PMC fighter not to commit irreparable mistakes, to stop any force actions against the Russian people, and not to comply with criminal and traitorous orders of Prigozhin, and to take measures on his apprehension.”
The FSB acts through its secret police and its quasi-independent military arm, the GRU. It’s not evident that it can deploy forces against Prigozhin’s advance. At this point, there is no need for it to do so.
Prigozhin is not among the siloviki, but was one of Putin’s closest friends and advisers. We could not expect to hear from the FSB about the siloviki’s intentions, but sources are receiving faint signals that all is not well among Putin’s siloviki who, like the Russian military, have been gravely disappointed with Putin’s war against Ukraine.
For months, the neo-isolationists in Congress — and former president Trump — have been arguing that we should be sending less in aid to Ukraine. Others — including China’s Xi Jinping — have been pitching peace agreements that would have left Russia holding substantial parts of Ukraine until Putin decided to take the rest of it.
Ukraine’s long-awaited counter-offensive has made only small gains against the Russians. The defection of the Wagner Group could be decisive. If Ukrainian forces mount an all-out attack against the Russians in eastern Ukraine, they could succeed in driving Russia out of the Donbas region. But Ukrainian President Zelensky has moved cautiously and his caution may, and probably should, prevent such a bold move.
According to a Wall Street Journal report, “Columns of Wagner tanks, artillery and personnel carriers were spotted crossing the Voronezh and Lipetsk regions, coming to within 200 miles of the Russian capital by Saturday afternoon.”
Suddenly, late on Saturday, Prigozhin stopped the advance on Moscow. He said, “We are turning our columns around and going back in the other direction toward our field camps, in accordance with the plan.” There is a claim that Belarusian President Alexandre Lukashenko has made some deal with Prigozhin precipitating that move. Putin may be party to that agreement if there is one.
Before that, there were no reports of Russian forces being deployed to stop the Wagner Group’s advance.
Putin has apparently been caught off-guard, which is highly unusual. His advisers cannot have been blind to Prigozhin’s complaints and quasi-rebellions against the Russian military and Putin. Were some of them among the coup plotters?
It’s entirely unclear why Prigozhin has stopped his advance on Moscow. In Russian politics anything is possible. Is the supposed deal with Lukashenko one that will save Putin or condemn him and his generals? Was Prigozhin’s attempted coup a false-flag operation intended to topple Putin’s generals but not Putin? Is Prigozhin strong enough to dictate terms to Putin?
All we can be sure of is that there are plots within plots, counter-plots and counter-counter plots.
If Prigozhin is successful in toppling Putin, there will be even greater dangers for Ukraine. Prigozhin is as dedicated to the conquest of Ukraine as were any of Putin’s allies. Worse still, if he succeeds in his coup against Putin and takes control of the Russian government, it would be no surprise that he uses tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine.
Russia’s instability brought about by Prigozhin’s coup attempt is an opportunity for the West but it is very hard to see how it can take advantage of it. At this point, there is no advantage to either Putin or Prigozhin succeeding. For now, we can only stand by and let events take their course.