Today’s primary in Michigan offers us a potential forecast for November.
Rashida Tlaib, the congresswoman representing a heavily Muslim and more heavily Democrat district, encourages those in her party to vote “uncommitted” in protest over the Biden administration’s support for Israel in its war with Hamas. Should the percentage of the uncommitted rise well into the double digits, this could act as the canary in the coalmine on President Joe Biden’s chances in the fall.
He trails Donald Trump by 2 points in the most recent poll of Michigan voters on this presumptive fall matchup.
Certainly, most who vote uncommitted in the Democrat primary Tuesday hold their noses and vote for Biden — or, more precisely, against Donald Trump — in the fall. But should even 5 percent of regular Democrat voters stay home or vote third party, Biden cannot win.
And the last time a Democrat won the presidency but lost Michigan occurred in 1976, when the Republican candidate (President Gerald Ford) came from Michigan.
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